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Wednesday, February 28, 2007

February 28th - Bottom Fishing

Cramer started out bottom fishing for some good deals on the heels of the big sell off from Tuesday. He named several "shopping cart" picks like HNZ, CLX, GIS, and said he really likes Altria Group Inc. (MO). He also likes some bio-techs namely Celgene Corporation (CELG)
and Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD). These types of stocks aren't big gainers because they aren't what people appear to buy when watching Cramer.

Cramer said the next bottom sector that could be in the new 2 weeks is in part of the financial sector. Again he named Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), Bank of America Corp. (DE) (BAC), Citigroup Inc. (C), and T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW). Again, not the speculative type stocks that are best for big price spikes and shorting. The current market state are going to make things a little difficult here until confidence is regained.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

February 27th - Big Down Day In The Market

Of course the main topic today was the big red day in the market as Cramer tried to explain what happened today. I'll leave you to his recap at thestreet.com to get all the information on that. What I will post is his ideas for keeping safe in this market and they were dividend paying stocks (that beat the Treasury rates), value stocks, and defensive stocks like the PG's of the stock world.

Doesn't sound like Cramer is going to make any picks tonight, and I don't really blame him. I didn't give an update for YHOO, EBAY, or IACI since they were all down big today and it had nothing to do with the Cramer effect drop. Something tells me even if Cramer did make some picks, people wouldn't be to eager to go out and buy them after hours.

Ok, I was wrong...Cramer did recommend buying the big brokers: GS, BSC, LEH, MER, and MS but I don't consider these short worthy from this recommendation and none of them are going to make up their large losses from today in the after hours.

Monday, February 26, 2007

February 26th - YHOO IACI EBAY

In Cramer's first segment he said that Google has stalled, but even though he is keeping his $600 price tag, but its not going to go up until it has a pullback to $450. He named 3 replacements to buy while waiting for Google to come around.

The first pick was Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)

Closing Price: $32.12
After Hours High: $32.50
Percent Increase at High: 1.2%
After Hours Most Recent: $32.41
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.9%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 3.4
Short %: 6.89 %
% Held by Insiders: 10.41 %
% Held by Institutions: 71.30 %
50 Day Moving Average: $28.21
200 Day Moving Average: $28.25
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.3%


A big name stock that Cramer doesn't normally move that much on a recommendation which takes away from shorting potential. The RSI shows the stock being at overbought levels, and the top band of the bollinger band is at $32.97 so the upside is a bit limited so these small gains may not hold tomorrow, but not a stock I would normally consider for a short.

Cramer's 2nd Internet pick to buy while waiting for Google to come down was IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI)

Closing Price: $40.74
After Hours High: $41.80
Percent Increase at High: 2.6%
After Hours Most Recent: $41.27
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.3%
Sector: Consumer Goods
Days to Cover: 4.1
Short %: 7.58 %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: 72.70 %
50 Day Moving Average: $38.32
200 Day Moving Average: $30.86
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.8%


After hours has pushed the stock over the top band that was at $41.13. The RSI is also over 70 which is a sign of being overbought, but as you can see from the chart, the stock has had an RSI over 70 recently and was still able to gain in price. The price has been hugging pretty close to the top band so a fall back to that level tomorrow could be a possibility after the early spike. The opening prices haven't been reaching the highs from the night before lately so I would wager a guess that the opening price might be in the $41.50 area. Also, here is my write-up from August 9th 2006 when Cramer originally recommended IACI (you can also type IACI into the search box at the very top left of the blog to see the whole post): "IACI had large pre-market volume where the opening trade at 8:00am was $26.48, which was equal to last nights after hours high. The price was then very choppy but went towards the opening bell on an increase to the pre-market high of $26.71 at 9:28am and opened at the same price at 9:30am which also happened to be the high for the day. The initial price drop in the stock was to $26.12 at 9:49am and the low of the day of $26.03 was seen at 3:52pm." The past does not predict the future, but the stock did see its high at the open last time.

Cramer's #1 internet stock to buy while waiting for Google was eBay Inc. (EBAY)

Closing Price: $33.42
After Hours High: $33.94
Percent Increase at High: 1.6%
After Hours Most Recent: $33.87
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.3%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 2.1
Short %: 3.20 %
% Held by Insiders: 16.72 %
% Held by Institutions: 64.80 %
50 Day Moving Average: $31.62
200 Day Moving Average: $29.80
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.3%


Another stock that trades on huge volume that Cramer doesn't move that much on a recommendation. A down day today took the stock down from the top band at $34.30. A fair amount of after hours buying before Cramer actually mentioned the stock, which I can only guess is from people speculating that he was going to pick EBAY. To be honest I had EBAY typed in 5 seconds before he mentioned it but I wasn't buying to catch a spike. So the top band wasn't reached after hours and I don't think it is likely to go that high tomorrow leaving little potential for shorting.

Friday, February 23, 2007

February 23rd - BSTE SUNW

Cramer's first speculative play for Speculation Friday was Biosite Incorporated (BSTE)

Closing Price: $55.32
After Hours High: $ 58.00
Percent Increase at High: 4.84%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 56.74
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 2.57%
Sector: Healthcare
Days to Cover: 11.7
Short %: 33.57 %
% Held by Insiders: 22.91 %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $52.62
200 Day Moving Average: $47.39


Three transactions for a total of 800 shares at $58 were sold right as Cramer mentioned the stock, only for the price to drop immediately to mid-56 level. Nothing like an instant $1200 loss for those 3 trades (unless they were short covering). The stock is now well above the top band at $55.86 which leaves plenty of room to the downside. The short percentage is very high though and could explain the decent price pop for a stock of this price. $57 would be a number to watch on Monday morning and I would be curious to see if the price breaks that. If it does, I would be afraid for a squeeze since the stock is approaching the 52-week high, so that means anyone that shorted in the last year are likely losing money right now and may cover here.

Cramer's final speculative pick was Sun Microsystems Inc. (SUNW)

Closing Price: $6.27
After Hours High: $ 6.41
Percent Increase at High: 2.23%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 6.28
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.16%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 0.7
Short %: 0.99 %
% Held by Insiders: 2.01 %
% Held by Institutions: 62.60 %
50 Day Moving Average: $6.01
200 Day Moving Average: $5.09
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.3%

The stock is only up 1-cent after hours as Cramer pleaded for caution when buy the stock. The price is closer to the bottom band so there is some upside potential, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Update - EMU CHTR

EMU
No Pre-market trades
Regular Hours Open: $12.41
Initial Spike Price: $12.44
Time of Spike: 9:33am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.21 (-1.7%) to $12.23
Time of Initial Drop: 9:51am
High for the Day: $12.44
Low for the Day: $12.13
End of Day Closing Price: $12.19, up $0.31


CHTR
Pre-Market High: $ 3.28
Pre-Market Low: $ 3.18
Pre-Market Close: $ 3.26
Pre-Market Volume: 813,860
Last Nights Price: $3.35

Regular Hours Open: $3.26
Initial Spike Price: $3.26
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.10 (-3.1%) to $3.16
Time of Initial Drop: 10:41am
High for the Day: $3.26
Low for the Day: $3.15
End of Day Closing Price: $3.19, up $0.09

Thursday, February 22, 2007

February 22nd - EMU CHTR

Cramer's first segment was about nuclear power and the uranium that power them. His pick was ENERGY METALS CORPOR (EMU)

Closing Price: $11.88
After Hours High: $13.88
Percent Increase at High: 16.8%
After Hours Most Recent: $12.69
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 6.8%

I kid you not that I was in the dentist office today and read an article about uranium while I wanted and EMU was mentioned! From a technical perspective this stock is overbought with an RSI value of 84 (stocks with an RSI over 70 are considered overbought). It has also blown right past the top band of $11.90 after hours after it had been walking the band upwards for the last several days showing an obvious up-trend. Cramer tried to warn people to not buy over $12, but was unsuccessful. Anything close to $13 for a short could be a good short entry point, but given the momentum the stock has had, I don't expect a drop all the way back down to the top band of $11.90, but this one doesn't have to come down much to get a good percentage drop for a quick trade.

Cramer's next pick was Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR)

Closing Price: $3.10
After Hours High: $3.38
Percent Increase at High: 9.0%
After Hours Most Recent: $3.35
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 8.1%
% short: 22.34%
Days to Cover: 8.2
% Held By Insiders: 11.15%
% Held By Institutions: 77.30%

After hours has taken the price above the middle of the band (also the 20-day SMA) of $3.26, with the top band (and possible top for tomorrow) of $3.46. Anything above $3.46 could represent a good short opportunity tomorrow morning. The short percentage in the stock already is a little concerning as is the institutional holding percentage so I would consider this the riskier of the 2 stocks from tonight's show.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

February 21st - Anti-Competitive Mergers

Cramer's first segment looked at the Sirius and XM merger and used that to focus on other companies who could merge even with a similar anti-competitive deal.

His top 10 anti-competitive mergers possibilities were:

Kroger Co. (KR) Closing Price: $26.47 and Safeway Inc. (SWY) Closing Price: $36.96

Quest Diagnostics Inc. (DGX) Closing Price: $52.42 and Laboratory Corp. of America Holdings (LH) Closing Price: $80.06

Carnival Corp. (CCL) Closing Price: $48.66 and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Closing Price: $40.73

Office Depot, Inc. (ODP)
Closing Price: $35.72 and OfficeMax Inc. (OMX) Closing Price: $53.27

Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH) Closing Price: $72.36 and McKesson Corp. (MCK) Closing Price: $57.44

BP plc (BP) Closing Price: $61.50 and Chevron Corp. (CVX) Closing Price: $69.94

Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) Closing Price: $102.55 and Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) Closing Price: $75.29

Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) Closing Price: $41.69 and Time Warner Inc. (TWX) Closing Price: $21.65

Gannett Co., Inc. (GCI) Closing Price: $62.95 and McClatchy Co. (MNI) Closing Price: $38.08

CSX Corp. (CSX) Closing Price: $40.87 and Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) Closing Price: $104.31

Not the type of show that invokes a lot of after hours buying typically, and the prices and size of most of these stocks make it a rather boring show from a shorting perspective.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

February 20th - Repeat

Another repeat today (like it was yesterday). Is there a college show tomorrow? This repeat was a sneak peak at his latest book...a new favorite repeat episode these days.

Friday, February 16, 2007

February 16th - Generic Speculation Show

Speculation Friday turned out to be a generic show on Cramer's rules for speculation with ZERO picks. And I assume Monday's show will be a repeat due to the holiday, so maybe we will have some picks to look forward to on Tuesday.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

February 15th - CLWR

Cramer started out with a "Know your IPO" segment for Clearwire Corp. (CLWR). Not something that can be shorted following this strategy. Cramer did give FIG 1 thumb up on its IPO and it has gone from a high of $37 to under $29 today. I'm pretty sure anyone that bought day 1 (and didn't get in on the IPO shares at $18.50) are all underwater on the trade. Since Cramer really didn't endorse the IPO and the segment was really about SHLD I won't hold it against him :)

And if I heard right, Cramer is doing the Sell Block and Am I Diversified, neither of which I follow for shorting.

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

February 14th - CAT DD UTX

Cramer looked at BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and said it just doesn't cut it anymore and said to look at ROW (Rest of the World) too find companies that get earnings outside of the US. His #3 choice was Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

Closing Price: $66.16
After Hours High: $66.95
Percent Increase at High: 1.2%
After Hours Most Recent: $66.70
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.8%
Sector: Industrial Goods
Days to Cover: 1.8
Short %: 1.21 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.30 %
% Held by Institutions: 68.60 %
50 Day Moving Average: $61.71
200 Day Moving Average: $67.00
Average Price Drop for Sector: 3.2%

Although too small of a percentage increase right now to consider a short, the top band of the bollinger is at $67.98, so even with the after hours price there is still room to the upside as the stock has had a strong up-move in recent weeks.

Cramer's #2 ROW play was EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (DD)

Closing Price: $51.79
After Hours High: $52.35
Percent Increase at High: 1.1%
After Hours Most Recent: $52.14
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.7%
Sector: Basic Materials
Days to Cover: 4.1
Short %: 1.75 %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $48.93
200 Day Moving Average: $44.18
Average Price Drop for Sector: 5.5%

A slightly smaller gain after hours then CAT, as neither of these picks seem to have excited many buyers. DD is now above the top band which was at $52, so only slightly above as it trades at $52.15ish after hours. Just not enough downside potential on this small increase if the downside is limited to the top band.

Finally Cramer's number 1 ROW pick was United Technologies Corp. (UTX)

Closing Price: $68.17
After Hours High: $70.06
Percent Increase at High: 2.8%
After Hours Most Recent: $69.05
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.3%
Sector: Conglomerates
Days to Cover: 1.2
Short %: 0.57 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.27 %
% Held by Institutions: 79.80 %
50 Day Moving Average: $64.73
200 Day Moving Average: $63.56


Well it appears people were waiting for the last pick and have bid it up a bit more then the first 2 picks, but still only a little over 1%. A recent bounce of the middle band (2o-day SMA) could take it towards the top band at $69.51 (which was breached and retreated right after Cramer mentioned it). The stock was up over $1 today so there is some momentum. Given the price it is not something I'm interested in shorting, but I am interested to see if the top band is approached and how the price will act if it hits it.

Update - LMS

Pre-Market High: $ 29.75
Pre-Market Low: $ 29.25
Pre-Market Close: $ 29.50
Pre-Market Volume: 22,310
Last Nights Price: $29.47

Regular Hours Open: $29.50
Initial Spike Price: $29.90
Time of Spike: 9:32am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.78 (-2.6%) to $29.12
Time of Initial Drop: 9:49
High for the Day: $30.1
Low for the Day: $29.12
End of Day Closing Price: $29.7, up $1.45

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

February 13th - VIA-B LMS

Cramer recommended a "broken" stock that is now worth owning. The stock was Viacom Inc. (VIA-B) because they are cutting some staff. Now Cramer did show the stock code VIA-B, but the A class shares trade at the same price, and my broker only shows VIA. So here is the data that I could find at least.

Closing Price: $39.96
After Hours High: $41.00
Percent Increase at High: 2.6%
After Hours Most Recent: $40.58
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.6%
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 3.6
Short %: %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %


Slightly above my price range for shorting, but a decent second push in the after hours price as Cramer became even more positive, which has also dropped to settle around $40.60. I added a TA chart showing the bollinger bands which shows the price was near the bottom band, so this recommendation leaves some room to the upside to the top band which is at $41.99. Since we are well bellow the top band, the price to watch is in the middle (the 20-day SMA) which is at $40.71, which could be represent the top tomorrow. I would say if it goes above $40.71 then I would be concerned it could hold or push to the top band.

Cramer's next recommendation was Lamson & Sessions Co. (LMS)

Closing Price: $28.25
After Hours High: $29.59
Percent Increase at High: 4.7%
After Hours Most Recent: $29.47
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 4.3%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 14.4
Short %: 27.23 %
% Held by Insiders: 21.98 %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $24.61
200 Day Moving Average: $24.54
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.3%



Nice percentage increase after hours here. As you can tell I'm enjoying the Bollinger Bands to help spot some potential highs and lows. Here we are near the top band of $28.64 at the close price, but the after hours has taken us well above this. This makes the high harder to spot, but anything around the high from tonight could be desirable, assuming it doesn't go much higher then that early on. So the downside is likely limited to the top band of $28.64, but that is probably a bit too low of a target for tomorrow, but a number to keep in mind.

Monday, February 12, 2007

February 12th - MRVL

Cramer's first segment was about semi-conductors and if they were a trade or investment which was followed by some education about trading vs. investing. Cramer said a recent upgrade on the sector is a sign to the big funds to start buying now when prices are low (but not at their lowest necessarily) to be able to catch the run up later in the year. Cramer thinks there is one more bad quarter before things turn around in the sector. He said Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) is likely to report bad numbers, but could rally upwards on the bad numbers with the expectations that it will do better next quarter and is an example of an investment and not a trade.

Closing Price: $17.91
After Hours High: $ 18.19
Percent Increase at High: 1.56%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 18.05
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.78%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 1.8
Short %: 4.16 %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $19.53
200 Day Moving Average: $20.45
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.3%

Considering there is a chance the stock can go down after they report, I don't think people are breaking down the door to buy this. Based on the Bollinger Bands, there the downside is likely around $17.71 after today's weakness, but the stock isn't likley to go high enough to be a worthwhile short.

Finally Cramer spoke of the oil and gas sector and said he likes National Oilwell Varco, Incorporated (NOV). The stock closed today at $66.53 so it is too rich for me, plus it is an oil play, which is a sector I stay away from because the price of oil can impact the stock price more then Cramer can.

Update - LNDC OPTM FNSR

LNDC
Pre-Market High: $ 13
Pre-Market Low: $ 12.75
Pre-Market Close: $ 12.95
Pre-Market Volume: 40,331
Last Nights Price: $12.91

Regular Hours Open: $12.99
Initial Spike Price: $13.00
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.34 (-2.6%) to $12.66
Time of Initial Drop: 9:50am
High for the Day: $13.00
Low for the Day: $12.57
End of Day Closing Price: $12.7, up $0.35


OPTM
Pre-Market High: $ 24.40
Pre-Market Low: $ 23.64
Pre-Market Close: $ 24.01
Pre-Market Volume: 900
Last Nights Price: $24.01

Regular Hours Open: $24.00
Initial Spike Price: $24.00
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.79 (-3.3%) to $23.21
Time of Initial Drop: 10:50am
High for the Day: $24.00
Low for the Day: $23.00
End of Day Closing Price: $23.79, up $0.27


FNSR
Pre-Market High: $ 3.37
Pre-Market Low: $ 3.19
Pre-Market Close: $ 3.23
Pre-Market Volume: 187,954
Last Nights Price: $3.22

Regular Hours Open: $3.22
Initial Spike Price: $3.23
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.14 (-4.3%) $3.09
Time of Initial Drop: 10:02am
High for the Day: $3.23
Low for the Day: $3.07
End of Day Closing Price: $3.1, up $0.02

Friday, February 09, 2007

February 9th - LNDC OPTM FNSR

Cramer made a new rule about speculative picks and said he would only make them on Fridays, so people could evaluate them over the weekends. He must fail to remember that people will still buy instantly after hours. His speculative pick for the day was Landec Corp. (LNDC)

Closing Price: $12.35
After Hours High: $14.00
Percent Increase at High: 13.4%
After Hours Most Recent: $12.91
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 4.5%
Sector: Basic Materials
Days to Cover: 1.7
Short %: 1.41 %
% Held by Insiders: 15.03 %
% Held by Institutions: 59.80 %
50 Day Moving Average: $11.16
200 Day Moving Average: $9.86
Average Price Drop for Sector: 5.5%

Big initial spike after hours up to $14, but of course that didn't hold and fell as much as a dollar a few seconds later. After reading Market Barometer I have been taking a look at the bollinger bands to see if they can help spot some important price levels. I won't get into the details on how to use the bands, but the particular stock is now well over the top band of $12.62. This means that the support on the way back down from the spike could be near $12.62 (I don't suggest waiting for this point since it could take days to get there if you are looking for a quick day trade, but it might give a good idea how much potential downturn there might be). So we have an idea of the downside, but the high is harder to determine. With the stock slightly below $13, I could see it opening around $13, and anything over that number could be a good short entry point around the time of the opening bell.

Cramer moved on to Telco and said CSCO is a good buy (but not the focus of the segment or a good short in my opinion based on this small recommendation). Sticking with the speculative theme Cramer picked three telco stocks Optium Corporation (OPTM), Finisar Corp. (FNSR), and OPXT which is about to have an IPO.

OPTM
Closing Price: $23.52
After Hours High: $24.75
Percent Increase at High: 5.2%
After Hours Most Recent: $24.01
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 2.1%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 1.0

FNSR
Closing Price: $3.08
After Hours High: $3.30
Percent Increase at High: 7.1%
After Hours Most Recent: $3.22
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 4.5%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 3.3
Short %: 8.65 %
% Held by Insiders: 18.05 %
% Held by Institutions: 72.80 %
50 Day Moving Average: $3.39
200 Day Moving Average: $3.61
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.3%

FNSR is a very cheap stock, that some will not be able to short since several brokerages won't allow shorting under $5. With a gain of only around 14-cents, there isn't a lot of room to play with, even though it does represent a decent percentage. OPTM isn't holding gains after hours and has settled around $24. There was some resistance at $24 prior to the Cramer recommendation and it appears to be coming back into play with the after hours drop. A short closer to the high for tonight of $24.75 would be far more desirable then one in the low $24's (sort of goes without saying, but what I am trying to say is a short at the low $24's might not be worth much).

Thursday, February 08, 2007

February 8th - SHLD DST

Cramer's first segment looked at the first publicly traded hedge fund (but only gave it 1 thumb up) and said Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD) is the winner of this occurrence. As Cramer has said many times in the past, SHLD is not truly a retailer and is more play on Eddie Lampert who gets to invest the returns from Sears, which is the same thing Warren Buffet did. Cramer says the fact a publicly traded hedge fund will give people something to compare SHLD to.

Closing Price: $180.81
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 6.1
Short %: 13.09 %
% Held by Insiders: 4.94 %
% Held by Institutions: 90.90 %
50 Day Moving Average: $173.18
200 Day Moving Average: $159.05
Average Price Drop for Sector: 2.8%

I am not going to short this stock due to the price so I haven't put the after hours prices in, but you can see there are a lot of people short the stock (which Cramer says is because people don't understand that SHLD isn't really a retailer).

Finally Cramer recommended DST Systems Inc. (DST) based on the fact a similar company was just bid on at a much higher price.

Closing Price: $71.94
After Hours High: $73.50
Percent Increase at High: 2.2%
After Hours Most Recent: $73.48
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 2.1%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 8.0
Short %: 7.14 %
% Held by Insiders: 3.40 %
% Held by Institutions: 84.50 %
50 Day Moving Average: $64.94
200 Day Moving Average: $61.02
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.3%

Once again too expensive for my taste. Not much else to say about it really....much like most of the picks lately, from a short perspective.

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

February 7th - UA CROX

Cramer had a live college show today and looked at Under Armour, Inc. (UA) and CROCS Inc. (CROX)

UA
Closing Price: $47.94
After Hours High: $ 49.05
Percent Increase at High: 2.32%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 48.70
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.59%
Sector: Consumer Goods
50 Day Moving Average: $49.44
200 Day Moving Average: $41.64
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.8%

CROX
Closing Price: $57.50
After Hours High: $ 58.30
Percent Increase at High: 1.39%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 57.10
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: -0.70%
Sector: Consumer Goods
Days to Cover: 9.5
Short %: 48.85 %
% Held by Insiders: 14.46 %
% Held by Institutions: 84.60 %
50 Day Moving Average: $45.25
200 Day Moving Average: $33.67
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.8%

Cramer was bullish on UA, and bearish on CROX long term (which explains the negative movement after hours). UA is a very volatile stock and too expensive and risky for my taste. Some may look at shorting CROX on the negative view from Cramer, but it is not something I personally would consider due to its high volatility as well.

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

February 6th - Repeat

Cramer had a repeat show tonight (at least I think it is) called Back to Basics and went over several rules for investing. So no picks tonight to short tomorrow. I assume Cramer is doing a college show tomorrow? Those too have been educational of late so I'm not sure we are going to get any great picks then either, but you never know.

Monday, February 05, 2007

February 5th - Superbowl Ads

Cramer started out by looking at superbowl ads and the big companies who put up the money to have theirs shown last night. He said BUD PEP and GM were the big 3. Looking at last years big advertisers, they did very well, but Cramer said that some companies may just dish out money for expensive ads just to get people to buy their stock. He said BUD and PEP were the #1 picks of the superbowl ads. He then said DMND is a buy, but the superbowl ad should just be a sign to do your homework on the company and not buy just because of their ad. GRMN was also mentioned, but Cramer said it wasn't a superbowl ad winner. None of the stocks mentioned in the segment had any after hours price action to speak of....which seems very odd, but that's what I'm seeing.

Finally Cramer had a baby boomer segment and recommended T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW) and Legg Mason Inc. (LM). LM is too expensive, and TROW only had a small gain and trades near $50, which is also too expensive for my taste.

I'll also add that Cramer had a CEO segment with the CEO of Avnet Inc. (AVT). I normally skip this segments as opportunities, but will point out here that this was the only stock mentioned that had much of a move after hours, although not a great one.

Closing Price: $32.42
After Hours High: $ 33.25
Percent Increase at High: 2.56%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 33.01
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.82%
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 4.2
Short %: 3.95 %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $26.55
200 Day Moving Average: $22.44
Average Price Drop for Sector: 2.8%

Might be worth keeping an eye one, but I'm not sure if these CEO segment stocks get the same sort of attention.

Friday, February 02, 2007

February 2nd

Not a lot to discuss tonight from a shorting standpoint. Cramer started out with his gameplan recommended buying some stocks that were up this week on strong earnings and said they should continue to go up. He said it will be hard for most people to buy high and sell higher, but if they wait for a pull back it won't happen.

He then looked at Yahoo! and Google and said Yahoo! is up (and more expensive) and Google is down even though Google reported superior numbers. I will refer you to thestreet.com for the recap to get all the details about what Cramer said as it doesn't present a shorting opportunity in my opinion.

Finally, Cramer had another "Know your IPO" segment for a company called Switch and Data with the future stock code to be SDXC. Again, not a short opportunity here.

Thursday, February 01, 2007

February 1st - SBUX

Cramer started out by saying Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) had good numbers but the street wanted even better. Cramer had the founder and chairman of SBUX on. And although Cramer said he thinks it can still be bought, he asked some tough questions and said he didn't like some of the things that were going on and that he even lowered his earnings expectations for the company on "his model".

Closing Price: $34.41
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 4.1
Short %: 3.25 %
% Held by Insiders: 2.18 %
% Held by Institutions: 69.10 %
50 Day Moving Average: $36.07
200 Day Moving Average: $35.47
Average Price Drop for Sector: 2.8%

I'm not going to report the after hours numbers because there was only some slight movement as people guessed it was SBUX that was going to be mentioned, but after Cramer sat on the fence and said this was a longer term story the stock went no where. The stock is going lower after hours because of it, and some may see this as a shorting opportunity but that's not my game for this stock. Since SBUX really isn't a small speculative pick that Cramer hasn't recommended recently, there aren't necessarily many Cramer holders in the stock who will jump ship. Also, being such a well known stock, many people, who don't watch Cramer, could come in and buy what they think is a bargain if the stock is down a bit more.

Next Cramer had another education segment about finding a metric to help value restaurant stocks because he said same store sales just don't cut it. No stocks picked here to watch.

Finally Cramer is going to do his Sell Block. I normally skip commenting on this segment because I have never really considered shorting a sell recommendation, but think there may be something to watch. From the sidelines for now, I would be curious to see if he says to sell any speculative picks of his with high p/e's since I think these could have the most prolonged sell off. I'll add to my post if anything like that comes up.

Sell Block
BSX
LAUR - buyout offer, so downside is unlikely unless deal falls through.
MMM
SWHC

So BSX and SWHC would be the ones to watch for a decline since BSX has no earnings and possible legal problems, and SWHC has had a double, but neither give me the impression they will drop like DIVX or JSDA. I'll watch and see.