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Thursday, February 01, 2007

February 1st - SBUX

Cramer started out by saying Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) had good numbers but the street wanted even better. Cramer had the founder and chairman of SBUX on. And although Cramer said he thinks it can still be bought, he asked some tough questions and said he didn't like some of the things that were going on and that he even lowered his earnings expectations for the company on "his model".

Closing Price: $34.41
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 4.1
Short %: 3.25 %
% Held by Insiders: 2.18 %
% Held by Institutions: 69.10 %
50 Day Moving Average: $36.07
200 Day Moving Average: $35.47
Average Price Drop for Sector: 2.8%

I'm not going to report the after hours numbers because there was only some slight movement as people guessed it was SBUX that was going to be mentioned, but after Cramer sat on the fence and said this was a longer term story the stock went no where. The stock is going lower after hours because of it, and some may see this as a shorting opportunity but that's not my game for this stock. Since SBUX really isn't a small speculative pick that Cramer hasn't recommended recently, there aren't necessarily many Cramer holders in the stock who will jump ship. Also, being such a well known stock, many people, who don't watch Cramer, could come in and buy what they think is a bargain if the stock is down a bit more.

Next Cramer had another education segment about finding a metric to help value restaurant stocks because he said same store sales just don't cut it. No stocks picked here to watch.

Finally Cramer is going to do his Sell Block. I normally skip commenting on this segment because I have never really considered shorting a sell recommendation, but think there may be something to watch. From the sidelines for now, I would be curious to see if he says to sell any speculative picks of his with high p/e's since I think these could have the most prolonged sell off. I'll add to my post if anything like that comes up.

Sell Block
BSX
LAUR - buyout offer, so downside is unlikely unless deal falls through.
MMM
SWHC

So BSX and SWHC would be the ones to watch for a decline since BSX has no earnings and possible legal problems, and SWHC has had a double, but neither give me the impression they will drop like DIVX or JSDA. I'll watch and see.

Comments on "February 1st - SBUX"

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (February 01, 2007 8:16 PM) : 

Im not trying any of these. Typicaly I have a trigger happy sell finger but I decided to hold FRPT...one of only two stocks Im long on...thats turned out to be "a house of pain." Todays screwing around with going from short to long left me very little profits (with the Cramer pick). One of thoes days that makes you think you need to rethink your investing practices...

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (February 02, 2007 8:05 AM) : 

I'm getting burnt on FRPT as well. Any idea when the final contract will be decided?

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (February 02, 2007 11:35 AM) : 

It will be in March/april some have speculated. They have to do the testing on all the competitors first. There is no guarentee that FRPT will win but Im betting they will. Their partnership with GD seems to help them a lot...perhaps I should not be going off topic on cramertrackers site? If you mind cramertracker let me know. Ill take this talk back over to my blog.

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (February 02, 2007 1:02 PM) : 

Please feel free to discuss your other stock/investing releated material here. I don't mind in the slightest.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (February 02, 2007 2:11 PM) : 

Thanks Cramertracker. Just biding our time I guess. Haven't been doing this for long, but it seems like things have slowed down a bit.

Green Alien,

Hope this +bump in FRPT is not just another bump in the road down. Probably going to be another one of those could've, should've, didn't, but oh well things. I'm in for the long haul this time.

 

Blogger gqmi27 said ... (June 02, 2007 1:03 PM) : 

Cramertracker,

Thanks for the wonderful site it's been a great resource for me. I wanted your take on something.
I've been shorting cramer's picks for the last month and have accomplished a 20% return during that month. However starting with his Dow week all through this week I noticed that the pattern has changed. Instead of it spiking when he mentions it then leveling off later. It spikes up then keeps going higher. I wonder if this is because he's lately been recommending only one stock per show (or when he recommended three like the other day with his Russell 2000 show he recommended them all at once.) I think that Cramer seems to have been letting the Leonard the Monkey critics get to him and perhaps he's trying to alter how the Cramer bump works. All I know is I lost more money this past week and a half then I made all last month.
By the way the same thing has been happening in pre-market trading. It keeps going higher whereas it used to peak around 8-8:15 am. I wonder if the people shorting it got burned like I did are giving up.
I'd love to hear your thoughts,

Feel free to respond and/or email me
Aaron
gqmi22@yahoo.com

 

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