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Tuesday, October 31, 2006

October 31st - Sell HANS

Cramer started out with a bearish segment on Hansen Natural Corp. (HANS) in honor of Halloween. He said the company is a scary stock and did a taste test of all the different HANS drinks to see if any of them were even different and of course said they all tasted the same (even though he didn't try them all and was grabbing the same drink as he had his eyes closed). This is a stock that Cramer was behind from somewhere in the $65 range in the last year and and ran it all the way past $100 (the stock did split recently too). He is now saying to get out before they report and has been bearish on it as of late. I'm not one to short a sell pick because as I have said in the past it is not the same game and from what I have seen is that Cramer will bring the stock down (HANS is down around .70 cents after hours as I type) on a sell recommendation and then the non-Cramer watchers wake up tomorrow and see this as a buying opportunity because they don't know why the stock is down on no news and bring it back up. If one were to short this stock I think due diligence should be done and to not just take Cramers opinion on its own. This sort of leads me into something I am developing lately and what I like to call "Instant Homework". As a programmer by trade I have been working on a system that collects data from multiple websites (data from balance sheets, income statements, cash flow statments, analyst estimates etc) for a selected stock and will run a series of calculations to help give some background on the stock which is often spread out over many different sites. Now I hope I didn't mention this too early as I don't know when I will be done programming it, but ideally what I would like to do is post the information for each of Cramer's picks to give the "Long" side of the story and not just about shorting it.

Next Cramer expressed his bullish view on the country of Brazil and recommended owning Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO)

Closing Price: $25.44
After Hours High: $26.10
Percent Increase at High: 2.6%
Price Level Off Point: $26.00
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 2.2%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Basic Materials
Short %: 2.04%
Days to Cover: 2.7
% Held By Insiders: n/a
% Held By Institutions: 13.90%

For anyone that watches Fast Money, Eric Bolling also recommended RIO last night. The air seemed to come out of the stock shortly after Cramer recommended and then he put a $40 price tag on it and the after hours price pushed past $26. The price is hovering around $26 which means it will likely be broken tomorrow morning meaning spotting a top tomorrow morning could be a little harder and riskier. This is not a small stock and trades over 7 million shares a day so certainly one to be careful with. It also appears to trade in lock step with Phelps Dodge Corp. (PD) (you can compare 5 day chars on Yahoo! Charts) so keep an eye on that stock to see if it is up or down. If PD is down early tomorrow, then it could bring RIO down off an opening spike.

Monday, October 30, 2006

October 30th - Cigarette Stocks CVX CAL AMR

Cramer started out talking about the proposed tax on cigarettes which could hurt but recommended cigarette stocks saying he thinks they will be left unharmed. He recommended Altria Group Inc. (MO) which will spin off into 2 different cigarette companies in late '07. He also named the following as good options:

Reynolds American Inc. (RAI)
Carolina Group (CG)
Vector Group Ltd. (VGR)
UST Inc. (UST)

VGR is the only one under $50 and closed today at $16.95 but I don't see any after hours trading to speak of. It is a low volume stock that offers a big dividend so it is surprising there is no activity. Maybe this one just doesn't trade after hours? Update: A few trades after hours now bringing the price up to $17.18, but hardly much of an increase. And keep in mind if anyone ever considers shorting for longer then a day....dividends must be paid by the short seller.

Next Cramer said Chevron Corp. (CVX) would be going on sale next week after the election and said it was a buy because they had such strong earnings and the OPEC cuts. CVX closed today at $66.39 so not only is it too expensive, but I also don't short oil (or commodity stocks) based on a Cramer recommendation. He is also saying NOT to buy until Thursday because that is when it will go on sale.

Finally Cramer took a look at the airline stocks and made some recommendations based on the fact people are jumping in to a bankrupt stock Delta (but said he coudln't comment on Delta but said it wasn't a good idea to buy bankrupt stocks). Cramer said Continental Airlines, Inc. (CAL) and AMR Corporation (AMR) are still buys in the sector. Both of these stocks had strong up days today likely due to the drop in oil prices. Cramer recommended CAL back on June 19th when the stock was trading around $27. It is currently trading at nearly $38. The stock didn't have a typical Cramer drop at the opening bell but was lower by the days end. This is basically a reverse play on oil which makes it basically a commodity play. If oil is down again tomorrow then these two stocks would likely go up. This takes away from the Cramer effect in my opinion and makes shorting here more risky.

Friday, October 27, 2006

October 27th - LOW PMTI

Cramer started out by calling a bottom in Lowe's Companies Inc. (LOW). Much like CAG from yesterdays show LOW is a large cap stock that trades at a high volume (nearly 9 million shares per day). The reason I'm not a big fan of shorting these types of stock is because they don't generate huge buzz (only 5,000 shares traded in the pre-market today for CAG) even though CAG did fall quickly at the open today from $26.10 down to $25.76 but that isn't as big of a drop as the 1 day chart from today would seem. LOW closed today at $30.34 so although it is in an ok price range, it isn't a stock I think will present a great Cramer effect shorting opportunity.

Next Cramer recommended Palomar Medical Technologies Inc. (PMTI) which closed today at $48.81 which again is too expensive to consider a short from in my opinion. Again it appears Cramer is taking the high road and suggesting more well established stocks as the overall market hits new highs....and again I don't blame him for that.

Thursday, October 26, 2006

October 26th - CAG BWLD

Cramer started out talking about how ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG) is seen as a joke of a company but was quick to point out that it is near its 52-week high and recommended the stock.


Regular Hours Close: $25.73
After Hours High: $26.37
Percent Increase: 2.5%
After Hours Level Off Price: $26.32
Percent Increase: 2.3%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Consumer Goods
Short %: 2.03%
Days to Cover: 3.8
% Held by Insiders: 1.79%
% Held by Institutions: 68.40%

The after hours have taken the price beyond its 52-week high of $26.09. Cramer also said that the stock was very hated by the street, but that contradicts the 68% institutional holdings in the stock. The stock has also been a slow and steady climber from the $21 level over the last several months. This is a large volume stock (4.5 million shares traded today) with a large market cap which is something that I don't normally look at for shorting since the Cramer buyers may have very little influence on the stock. Then, if the regular non-Cramer market decide to take the price up they can and try to trap us shorts or push the momentum.

Next Cramer looked at the big move up in Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD) after a great quarter and asked the question, "Am I too late?". Cramer said the stock is still a buy at $50 (which means its too high of a price for shorting off a Cramer recommendation in my opinion) after its 20% gain this week. Cramer said the stock jumped due to its low float and relatively high short percentage which makes this a very volatile stock which is not right for all investors. The bear side of this stock is that they don't give guidance, but Cramer said this means they focus on their company and not on pleasing hedge funds. The other bear story is that it is just a chicken wing company and there is plenty of competition. Cramer once again shrugged that off saying they have a better marketing campaign that focuses on family restaurants which is different then the competition. The company also makes 14 different sauces which separates them from the pack as well since it is shaping up to be a regional to national story.

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

October 25th - AMZN EAT

Cramer spoke of how Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) reported lower revenue but the stock went up on the overall news that was mainly positive. Cramer thinks the price spike came from short covering because they didn't have a bad quarter. Again, this is a stock that Cramer has hated for a long time but and said people that caught the spike were lucky this time and that over the long term AMZN is still not a buy. This of course is a sell recommendation and basically a long term short (but Cramer didn't say that) but that's not what I look for to short picks as I don't short sell picks.

Next Cramer looked at
Brinker International Inc. (EAT) whose stock priced increased 7 points on declining same store sales. So why the increase? Because they still beat the estimates which were for much worse same store sales. Cramer recommended the stock but it closed today at $45.93 so it is too rich for shorting in my opinion because these higher priced stocks don't see the volume buying as cheaper ones.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

October 24th - GOOG NFLX NOK

Cramer started off talking about Google Inc. (GOOG) and how everyone has an opinion on it again after its big quarterly results. If you don't know this stock trades well north of $450 then you have probably been living under a rock. It goes without saying that I would not short GOOG on a Cramer recommendation and in fact it is a rule of mine to not even short a stock that is compared to GOOG. I do have a theory on GOOG and why I think that being long it is a good idea. As you can probably tell I am set up with Google Adsense, hence the ads you see on my site. Google doesn't say how much they pay their web publishers per click they get...it is just some random number. So, basically Google can take as much of the advertising money as they want until they have hit their "numbers". I use quotes around "numbers" because they don't give guidance, so who knows what those numbers are. I have also noticed that my site revenue has declined since the beginning of this new quarter on a comparable number of clicks. Maybe this is just coincidence, but maybe it is Google making sure they make enough money so their stock doesn't tank. I would also like to point out that during the ends of quarters I have seen an increase in ad revenue, probably Google wants to keep the publishers happy right? Now I am just a small time site that is lucky to get 100 hits a night so maybe my numbers mean nothing but I still think Google’s cloud of secrecy helps them do things like this (if in fact they are...and this is solely my opinion and not fact) and at the same time hurts their stock price because people aren't sure what they might be doing, not to mention "click fraud". Anyway, that’s my 2-cents.

Cramer did some comparisons of Google with other companies who have higher p/e ratios, even though Google has better growth and came up with some staggering price "targets", upwards of $924 if Google traded at those multiples. Of course he did not say this is possible, but said Google is still cheap even at its current price.

Next Cramer apologized for his constant bearish attitude on
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) and said it was a buy now. Although the price is in a desirable shorting range, given its recent strong earnings report from yesterday its not something I would look to short here.

Finally Cramer recommended Nokia Corp. (NOK) and once again it is a stock I would shy away from shorting since it is too big and well known for Cramer to have much influence on.

So it appears Cramer is sticking with big companies these days and why not? With the Dow at all time highs why not recommend the big stocks and limit the risk to his viewers?

Monday, October 23, 2006

October 23rd - IFF

Cramer started out talking about vanity stocks and said Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp. (MRX) and Allergan Inc. (AGN) were worth owning, but said to stay away form spin-offs done by leverage buyouts and said the major cosmetic companies aren't good buys either. But the main recommendation from the segment was International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF). IFF closed today $41.67 so outside of what I have found to be the best price range for shorting of a Cramer recommendation.

Next Cramer looked at the ugliness at Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) last Friday and said people shouldn't be watching just the business cycle. And although CAT had bearish things to say Cramer said it could go back to its old highs if held for 6 months. CAT closed today at $60.42 and has a 52-week high of $82.03. Again, too exensive here. Cramer was bearish on SLB and said the sector is out of favor.

Update - MNST

Pre-Market Open: $39.50
Pre-Market High: $39.65
Pre-Market Low: $39.21
Pre-Market Close: $39.64
Pre-Market Volume: 9,331 Shares
After Hours Friday: $39.50

Regular Hours Open: $39.64
Initial Spike Price: $39.87
Time of Spike: 9:35am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.47 (-1.2%) to $39.40
Time of Initial Drop: 10:03am
High for the Day: $40.75
Low for the Day: $39.40
End of Day Closing Price: $40.54 up $1.84

Friday, October 20, 2006

October 20th - DEO MNST

Cramer started out by looking for a total return stock. One that has great growth and a high dividend. Cramer recommended Diageo plc (DEO). DEO closed today at $72.50 so is too rich for shorting since it isn't likely to invoke mad buying to produce a big drop come Monday morning.

Next Cramer had his final take over target that Yahoo should consider and recommended Monster Worldwide Inc. (MNST)

Closing Price: $38.70
After Hours High: $39.50
Percent Increase at High: 2.1%
Price Level Off Point: $39.40
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 1.8%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Services
Short %: 2.95%
Days to Cover: 2.7

This one is right at the top of my max price range for considering a short off a Cramer recommendation and although there is some action after hours, the percent increase is reflective of a stock at the top of the price range. Since this pick is a "takeover" pick like RATE and KNOT were the last 2 days I think it is important to point out that neither had typical Cramer effect drops. RATE had a very quick and small drop from the open (and would have been best shorted during the after hours during the show) and then went up quickly. KNOT wasn't typical because it did not peak right at 9:30am like so many picks do and peaked closer to 10am but did have a substantial drop at that point. Some potential possibly down to $39.00 but may not be worth it without a spike on Monday.

Update - KNOT

Pre-Market Open: $24.85
Pre-Market High: $24.85
Pre-Market Low: $24.43
Pre-Market Close: $24.61
Pre-Market Volume: 30,293 Shares
After Hours Last Night: $24.88

Regular Hours Open: $24.65
Initial Spike Price: $25.24
Time of Spike: 9:53am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.99 (-3.9%) to $24.25
Time of Initial Drop: 10:19am
High for the Day: $25.24
Low for the Day: $24.25
End of Day Closing Price: $24.58 up $0.65

Thursday, October 19, 2006

October 19th - KNOT

Today Cramer gave his second recommendation for a Yahoo! takeover target and recommended The Knot, Inc. (KNOT)

Closing Price: $23.93
After Hours High: $25.15
Percent Increase at High: 5.1%
Price Level Off Point: $24.88
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 4.0%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: 10.83%
Days to Cover: 6.1
% Held By Insiders: 45.69%
% Held By Institutions: 46.20%

After the strength today in Cramer's Yahoo! takeover pick from yesterday (RATE) and the boost the tech sector may get from Google's earnings announcement tonight I would be very cautious with this one. This after hours action has also pushed this to a new 52-week high price but the stock trades at almost an 80 current p/e which seems rather high. The possibilities with a 52-week high pick are that people could take profits at the top or the momentum players could try to take it higher...and with Cramer takeover talk it could be the later.

Next Cramer spoke of the value in listening to company conference calls and looking for key words like cutting guidance and the overall confidence of the management in general and during the Q&A session. There were no real picks here but its probably worth reading the full recap on thestreet.com to get the full details of this segment to learn about the conference calls.

Update - RATE

Pre-Market Open: $31.23
Pre-Market High: $31.26
Pre-Market Low: $30.27
Pre-Market Close: $30.65
Pre-Market Volume: 25,184 Shares
After Hours Last Night: $30.95

Regular Hours Open: $30.72
Initial Spike Price: $30.72
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.39 (-1.3%) to $30.33
Time of Initial Drop: 9:33am
High for the Day: $31.89
Low for the Day: $30.33
End of Day Closing Price: $30.96 up $0.85

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

October 18th - RATE

Cramer started out talking about Yahoo! and how it needs to make some acquisitions to boost its growth and struggling stock price. Cramer said he was going to give several picks over the next several days that could be owned on their own merit and not just as targets for a takeover. The first stock (which Cramer said not to buy after hours) was Bankrate Inc. (RATE)

Closing Price: $30.11
After Hours High: $31.26
Percent Increase at High: 3.8%
Price Level Off Point: $30.95
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 2.8%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: 32.04%
Days to Cover: 15.7
% Held By Insiders: 33.60%

Big short percentage and days to cover here on a low volume stock. The stock is well off its highs and is still at over a 50 p/e ratio which makes this a pretty expensive stock (considering GOOG only trades at a 60 p/e). The price did break through $31 which makes the top harder to predict if it breaks it again early tomorrow. The other thing to consider is that the last few picks haven't peaked right at 9:30 but 10 or 15 minutes after the bell so I would be a bit patient to try to find the best short time to get as close to the peak as possible. Cramer mentioned again right at the end of the segment to wait 3 days to buy, so he is certainly predicting a fall here as well.

Next Cramer recommended Southern Copper Corp. (PCU) which is to expensive of a pick for shorting in my opinion and finally played "Am I Diversified".

Update - SONE SPLS

SONE
Pre-Market Open: $5.61
Pre-Market High: $5.62
Pre-Market Low: $5.20
Pre-Market Close: $5.29
Pre-Market Volume: 645,602 Shares
After Hours Last Night: $5.70

Regular Hours Open: $5.30
Initial Spike Price: $5.40
Time of Spike: 9:50am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.27 (-5.0%) to $5.13
Time of Initial Drop: 10:42am
High for the Day: $6.16
Low for the Day: $5.40
End of Day Closing Price: $5.16 up $0.20


SPLS
Pre-Market Open: $26.50
Pre-Market High: $26.81
Pre-Market Low: $26.02
Pre-Market Close: $26.47
Pre-Market Volume: 270,812 Shares
After Hours Last Night: $27.29

Regular Hours Open: $26.48
Initial Spike Price: $26.90
Time of Spike: 9:39am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.41 (-1.5%) to $26.07
Time of Initial Drop: 10:09am
High for the Day: $26.90
Low for the Day: $26.07
End of Day Closing Price: $26.37 down $0.10

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

October 17th - SPLS SONE

Cramer recommended Staples Inc. (SPLS) as a best of breed stock in a strong sector who trades at a discount to its peers.

Closing Price: $26.47
After Hours High: $27.29
Percent Increase at High: 3.1%
Price Level Off Point: $27.26
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 3.0%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Consumer Goods
Short %: 1.05%
Days to Cover: 1.6
% Held By Insiders: 0.57%
% Held By Institutions: 87.10%

Getting close to the 52-week high here with the small surge after hours. The price is at a good level and the stock has retreated from $27.00 the last few days of trading. So the question is will it fall back off $27 this time or blow right through it? It does appear that $27 was a resistance point as the stock has climbed from the $22 level in recent weeks (so where was Cramer at $22?) . With no short percentage currently in the stock and a shaky market right now I could see some sellers at the open on a price jump but $27 could now be the floor.


Next Cramer looked at S1 Corp. (SONE)

Closing Price: $4.96
After Hours High: $8.56 (obviously someone used a market order...or typed in 8 instead of 5??)
Percent Increase at High: 72%
Price Level Off Point: $5.70
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 14.9%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: 4.59%
Days to Cover: 16.2
% Held By Insiders: 1.91%
% Held By Institutions: 68.20%

Ouch...someone did something stupid and paid up 72% and the stock slowed down after Cramer said that anyone that bought SONE tonight was "stupid". Large short position for a low average daily volume stock could create some havoc tomorrow and the stock is also approaching its 52-week high (and of course passed it with that 1 ridiculous trade if in fact it wasn't withdrawn somehow). The stock has barely broken $5 in the last several months and never stayed above $5 for more than one day so going well above $5 tonight is a bit excessive if you ask me. Certainly an opportunity tomorrow morning anywhere near $6 as I would be down right shocked if it hit $6, but that is certainly no guarantee that it won't.

Update - SIX

Pre-Market Open: $6.25
Pre-Market High: $6.35
Pre-Market Low: $6.14
Pre-Market Close: $6.17
Pre-Market Volume: 61,400 Shares
After Hours High Friday Night: $6.53

Regular Hours Open: $6.16
Initial Spike Price: $6.16
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.26 (-4.2%) to $5.90
Time of Initial Drop: 9:45am
High for the Day: $6.16
Low for the Day: $5.90
End of Day Closing Price: $5.91 up $0.04

Monday, October 16, 2006

October 16th - Dow 12,000, SIX

Cramer started out by trying to explain the market run up as the DOW nears 12,000 and said it wasn't lower oil and good earnings. He said the 1 thing that is driving the market is the market mechanics and the way big institutions operate the market on a day to day basis and namely the momentum funds and their buying ways. Cramer said these funds basically buy at market prices and take as much stock as they can as opposed to under bidding the stocks. This drives up the prices (and likely draws people in) and hence moves the market up.

Next Cramer looked at Six Flags Inc. (SIX) and although he had a bad time personally at the park he recently visited and the numbers didn't look good he said that if they bulldozed everything they are sitting on valuable property.

Closing Price: $5.87
After Hours High: $6.53
Percent Increase: 11.2%
Price Level Off Point: $6.37
Percent Increase: 8.5%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Services
Short %: N/A
Days to Cover: N/A
% Held By Insiders: N/A
% Held By Institutions: N/A

Not an overly compelling story for the long side of this trade. Are they really considering bulldozing the parks just for the land? Would they have brought in the ESPN guy to run the company just so he can do that? Even with the "limited downside", I don't think there is any reason for this stock to move 10% tonight considering it has been hovering around 4-5 for the last while. And looking at the chart from today there seems to be an unusual spike late in the day. Maybe someone got word of Cramer's recommendation and sent the stock up to $6.12 during regular hours before declining. If anything that might show that the stock will have a hard time holding any large gains tomorrow.

Finally Cramer spoke of Yahoo! Inc (YHOO) and said he expects their earnings estimates are too high and put a $12 target on the stock and said if he were at his hedge fund he would be shorting it. I am not a fan of shorting a sell pick from Cramer and the fact that they are reporting tomorrow it would be a play on earnings and not on Cramer which should only be done on ones own due diligence and I have no opinion on it. Cramer then threw a big curve ball and said YHOO could be a takeover target and said it wouldn't go for less than $30 a share. Sounds kinda funny to be buying out a company at 21 billion as Cramer mentioned the potential price tag because even if someone like Microsoft who Cramer said could be a buyer could afford it would they want to reduce their cash position that much? Either way, with earnings tomorrow for YHOO there is no sense getting involved based on Cramer.

Update - RVBD NICE

RVBD
Pre-Market Open: $20.00
Pre-Market High: $21.23
Pre-Market Low: $19.68
Pre-Market Close: $20.72
Pre-Market Volume: 331,050 Shares
After Hours High Friday Night: $20.95

Regular Hours Open: $20.79
Initial Spike Price: $21.10
Time of Spike: 9:32am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.75 to $20.35
Time of Initial Drop: 9:37am
High for the Day: $21.48
Low for the Day: $19.57
End of Day Closing Price: $20.05 up $2.00



NICE
Pre-Market Open: $31.45
Pre-Market High: $31.78
Pre-Market Close: $31.76
Pre-Market Volume: 45,124 Shares
After Hours High Friday Night: $32.01

Regular Hours Open: $31.78
Initial Spike Price: $32.45
Time of Spike: 9:57am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.64 to $31.81
Time of Initial Drop: 10:28am
High for the Day: $32.45
Low for the Day: $31.62
End of Day Closing Price: $31.94 up $1.01

(problem posting charts)

Friday, October 13, 2006

October 13th - NICE RVBD

Cramer once again has recommended NICE Systems Ltd. (NICE) as a play on terrorist defense.

Closing Price: $30.93
After Hours Price: $32.01
Percent Increase: 3.5%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: 0.14%
Days to Cover: 0.4
% Held By Insiders: 3.75%
% Held By Institutions: 65.60%

Here is what happened last time Cramer recommended NICE on August 18th:
Pre-Market Open: $26.75
Pre-Market High: $26.76
Pre-Market Close: $26.55
Pre-Market Volume: 3694 Shares
After Hours High Friday Night: $27.15
Regular Hours Open: $26.83
Initial Spike Price: $27.00 ** Psychological price point not passed yet again.
Time of Spike: 9:33am
Initial Drop in Price from Regular Hours High: down $0.35 to $26.65
Time of Initial Drop: 9:45am
High for the Day: $27.00
Low for the Day: $26.36
Closing Price: $26.79, up $0.32 from Friday's close

Obviously the stock is up from where Cramer recommended it last time (which is the first time I have seen that when Cramer recommends a stock for a second time) but did drop off its opening high shortly after the opening bell. The price action tonight has pushed the stock to a new 52-week high after the stock was down over 2% during regular trading today. Since we have gone through $32 after hours here, but only just, this will be an important number to watch much like last time where the stock did not break $27 the next day. If it goes much higher than $32, then I would probably let it run in fear that $32 could be the floor, otherwise if $32 isn't broken early then it could fall like last time.

Next Cramer picked another recent IPO that was mentioned in a recent lightening round Riverbed Technology, Inc. (RVBD)

Closing Price: $18.05
After Hours Price: $20.60
Percent Increase: 14.1%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: N/A
Days to Cover: N/A
% Held By Insiders: N/A
% Held By Institutions: N/A

RVBD came public on September 21st and is trading on average near 1 million shares daily. Cramer said he was looking for the next DIVX which went up considerably for days. With the way DIVX went up I'm not going to touch this with a 20 foot poll, not to mention from what I heard brokers didn't have shares of DIVX to short so the same situation could happen here due to the newness of the stock. In fact, if this is anything like DIVX (and the after hours increase indicates it might be) it may be worth looking to BUY during the pre-market on Monday when the price will likely dip like DIVX did where it traded at $19.73 before going to $21.84 during the regular trading day.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

October 12th - Tech Stocks, SONC

Cramer started out by talking about the move of money from oil to tech and retail and recommended the following tech plays:

Motorola Inc. (MOT)
Oracle Corp. (ORCL)
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE)
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
QUALCOMM Inc. (QCOM)
Google Inc. (GOOG)
Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL)

These are large cap tech plays and although MOT, ORCL, CSCO, and MSFT posess nice prices for shorting, I'm not interested in shorting any of these personally based soley on a Cramer recommendation because they are simply too big for Cramer to influence long enough to create a good opportunity.

Next Cramer looked at a move considered crazy by the street at Sonic Corp. (SONC) where they are doing a dutch auction to buy back their own stock at a higher price than the stock is trading at.

Closing Price: $22.49
After Hours High: $23.09
Percent Increase at High: 2.7%
Price Level Off Point: $23.00
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 2.3%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Services
Short %: 6.52%
Days to Cover: 8.8
% Held By Insiders: 4.14%
% Held By Institutions: 90.00%

Ok, so Cramer says the company is going to be buying back these shares in the open market at $23.00 per share, which is right were we are trading after hours. I'm not sure when this purchase is going to take place exactly but it will likely pin the price at $23.00 tomorrow morning I would think, even though it was 50-cents below that today and the news came out on Monday. Cramer's rational here is that the stock will go up after the buyback since it will reduce the shares outstanding not to mention the possible expansion the company could do. It would seem logical to short anything considerably above $23 tomorrow morning if that were to happen, but since I don't know all the facts about this buy back I would do some homework before jumping into a short.

Update - HBI

Pre-Market Open: $23.50
Pre-Market High: $23.50
Pre-Market Close: $23.37
Pre-Market Volume: 4500 Shares
After Hours High Last Night: $23.24

Regular Hours Open: $23.34
Initial Spike Price: $23.40
Time of Spike: 9:33am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.30 to $23.10
Time of Initial Drop: 9:48am
High for the Day: $23.49
Low for the Day: $22.88
End of Day Closing Price: $23.00 up $0.35

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

October 11th - HBI

Running a little behind today, but Cramer only had one stock that was in a good price range for shorting and that was Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI)

Closing Price: $22.65
After Hours High: $23.24
Percent Increase at High: 2.6%
Price Level Off Point: $23.24
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 2.6%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Consumer Goods
Short %: N/A
Days to Cover: N/A
% Held By Insiders: N/A
% Held By Institutions: N/A

Since this is a recent spinoff there isn't much data to go by besides the fact that the after hours surge has put the stock to within a few cents of a new 52-week/all time high. The price after hours closed at the high price so it did show strength. Tough one to call with so little to go by, but if this is like most picks we should see a high shortly after the opening bell and have a quick drop but I could see $23.00 being a lower support level in my opinion.

Update - CAB

Pre-Market Open: $23.95
Pre-Market High: $24.00
Pre-Market Close: $24.00
Pre-Market Volume: 200 Shares
Last Nights After Hours High: $24.07

Regular Hours Open: $24.00
Initial Spike Price: $24.75
Time of Spike: 9:57am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.60 to $24.15
Time of Initial Drop: 10:27am
High for the Day: $24.98
Low for the Day: $23.95
End of Day Closing Price: $24.98 up $1.53


So as predicted CAB showed strength today, and although I said I did not want to short it, it did show a drop in the morning although not a typical one. So some very simple things to look for to signal potential strength (and therefore bad short) would be current short percentage and days to cover being high, a new 52-week high and strong insider and institutional holders.

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

October 10th - Market Shift CAB

Cramer started out by saying that people should change their position in the market and to get out of the recession stocks and its time to get into the cyclical. Cramer said to get into retail, financial and technology (besides semi-conductors) and recommended the following:

American International Group Inc. (AIG)
Ingersoll-Rand Co. Ltd. (IR)
Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)
Black & Decker Corp. (BDK)
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Oracle Corp. (ORCL)
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ)
Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL)
Lennar Corp. (LEN)

These do not represent shorting opportunities in my opinion since they are all big well known companies, not to mention most are rather expensive.

Next Cramer looked at how to spot a turnaround in a company and said the best way is to find a stock that is hated and said Cabela's Inc. (CAB) is a good example.

Closing Price: $23.45
After Hours High: $24.07
Percent Increase at High: 2.6%
Price Level Off Point: $24.00
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 2.3%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Services
Short %: 11.81%
Days to Cover: 32.3
% Held By Insiders: 38.45%
% Held By Institutions: 39.70%

A low volume stock (slightly above 200,000 a day) which explains the high days to cover the current short position. It also hit a new 52-week high today BEFORE Cramer recommended it and has decent insider and institutional holders. I'm not really liking this for a short due to the above factors and that fact that the price quickly went through the $24 level so there is no psychological number to create a possible ceiling for tomorrow.

Monday, October 09, 2006

October 9th - GES

Cramer started out by recommending Guess? Inc. (GES) even though Cramer already missed the double in the stock. GES closed today at $53.95, so it is too expensive for a short in my books. The reason being (since its been a while) is that these expensive picks, and when I say expensive I mean in dollar value and not p/e, don't get as much high volume buying as the cheaper stocks do, not to mention, for the smaller investor, one can't necessarily afford to short enough shares to make it worth while.

Next Cramer looked at a new way to play the military defense stocks and recommended SAIC (upcoming symbol SAI) which has an upcoming IPO, so obviously the stock doesn't trade yet and therefore not a shortable pick.

Finally Cramer spoke of 2 pink sheet stocks, Delphi Corp. (DPHIQ.PK) and Dana Corp. (DCNAQ.PK) who have both seen large increases in volume. Cramer said these were not good stocks to own and doesn't think owning any stocks on the pink sheets is a good idea. He did quickly mention Lear Corp. (LEA) and Autoliv Inc. (ALV) as better buys but ALV is too expensive and LEA had no price increase after hours. Since the focus was more on not buying the Pink Sheets and not so much LEA and ALV I don't see much action here.

Update - SNMX

Pre-Market Open: $16.60
Pre-Market High: $16.85
Pre-Market Close: $16.85
Pre-Market Volume: 70,799 Shares
Friday After Hours High: $16.93

Regular Hours Open: $16.85
Initial Spike Price: $16.89
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.60 to $16.29
Time of Initial Drop: 10:31am
High for the Day: $16.89
Low for the Day: $16.29

Friday, October 06, 2006

October 6th - SNMX DNA

Cramer started out recommending a speculative stock Senomyx Inc. (SNMX) even though it has negative earnings and had a wider than expected miss when they last reported.

Closing Price: $15.84
After Hours High: $16.93
Percent Increase at High: 6.9%
Price Level Off Point: $16.71
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 5.5%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Services - Research
Short %: 8.3%
Days to Cover: 16.5
% Held By Insiders: 2.99%
% Held By Institutions: 81.00%

The high institutional holdings in the stock leads me to believe that Cramer's secret was already out of the bad on this one with the big boys. So there are several warning signs here with shorting this stock and they are a) low volume and high days to cover b) high institutional holders c) lots of investor confidence with all the news about record high DOW index. Its hard not to be wary of the likes of DIVX recently which didn't go down for days. There are a few things to look for come Monday and that is the $17 price point which I don't think was broken tonight and would be an important number to watch if it is broken. Normally I feel safe shorting if it doesn't break a psychological price a minute or two after the opening bell, but a few recent picks have spiked a little later after the bell. Secondly is maybe some people will do their homework over the weekend and be a little safer in their buying or forget all together, thus limiting the upside in the morning.

Next Cramer spoke of his big win on a drug stock back in the day after betting on Merck even though the drug analyst said that the drug was small time. Cramer said Genentech Inc. (DNA) has a drug call Avastin which people know about but Cramer thinks the expectations are too low for the drug. DNA closed today at $83.20 so it is too expensive and not one I would consider for shorting off the Cramer recommendation.

Thursday, October 05, 2006

October 5th - SBUX MO

Cramer started out by talking about companies that stick up for their stocks and spoke of Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) who had a bad monthly number and the stock got crushed but rebounded nicely after the company said not to worry about the bad month and it was just due to a "slow drink". This was a scenario of a broken stock, not a broken company. His new rules were if a CEO has a good reputation, don't let one bad month get in the way and to look past a bad month if the company has lots of growth potential. Cramer then had on the CEO of Starbucks who had some very positive long term growth details for the company. Some compelling reasons to consider this as a buy long term but no real interest here on the short side personally considering the average volume and size of this company.

Next Cramer spoke of Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW) who was hit with a lawsuit back in February and was hit hard...but rebounded after the initial panic selling. Cramer said a similar situation is with could happen with a recent ruling that says Altria Group Inc. (MO) may have to pay back all the smokers. Cramer said the ruling should get thrown out and the stock should rebound and is a $100 stock masquerading as a $78 stock. MO is too expensive and too big for shorting in my opinion.

Update - TUP ALSK

TUP
Pre-Market: No Trades
After Hours High: $20.08

Regular Hours Open: $20.10
Initial Spike Price: $20.30
Time of Spike: 9:46am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.21 to $20.07
Time of Initial Drop: 9:52am
High for the Day: $20.30
Low for the Day: $19.97
End of Day Closing Price: $20.25 up $0.52


ALSK
Pre-Market Open: $14.15
Pre-Market High: $14.70
Pre-Market Close: $14.50
Pre-Market Volume: 35,561 Shares
Friday After Hours High: $14.44

Regular Hours Open: $14.53
Initial Spike Price: $14.77
Time of Spike: 9:32am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.58 to $14.19
Time of Initial Drop: 9:50am
High for the Day: $14.77
Low for the Day: $14.15
End of Day Closing Price: $14.17 up $0.45

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

October 4th - TUP WM ALSK T

Cramer looked at some dividend plays and recommended Tupperware Brands Corporation (TUP) , Washington Mutual Inc. (WM) , Alaska Communications Systems Group Inc. (ALSK) , and AT&T Inc. (T)

TUP
Closing Price: $19.73
After Hours High: $20.08
Percent Increase at High: 1.8%
Price Level Off Point: $20.05
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 1.6%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Consumer Goods
Short %: 7.0%
Days to Cover: 14
% Held By Insiders: 1.87%
% Held By Institutions: 79.10%

ALSK
Closing Price: $13.72
After Hours High: $14.44
Percent Increase at High: 5.2%
Price Level Off Point: $14.15
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 3.1%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: 15.33%
Days to Cover: 8.3
% Held By Insiders: 1.36%
% Held By Institutions: 75.00%

Like Cramer mentioned, not the most exciting picks, but there was some decent buying after hours on TUP and ALSK which are in a good price range for shorting. WM and T are a little more expensive and didn't get very much of a price increase after hours. Both TUP and ALSK have some strong institutional holdings, likely from some dividend funds I would think. Given the positive mood of the market and the strength of Cramer's two picks from yesterday I will be curious to see if the first spike in the morning comes a bit later after the opening bell and not right at the bell which has been the case the last while except the last few picks. TUP isn't up much after hours so ALSK might be the one with the attention tomorrow. My one concern is that if this is a dividend stock people may not care to sell on any run up and are holding just for the dividend. This could then cause a shortage of supply since both these stocks trade under a half million shares a day on average.

Next Cramer looked at Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY) as a "Bear Stock" vs Humana Inc. (HUM) as a "Bull Stock".

AUY is a cheap stock that closed today at $8.20 and the after hours took it to a high of $8.39 but that is still below the high for the day of $8.58 so this is an ANGO no-short rule for me. HUM on the other hand is to expensive as it closed at $67.97 today.

Update - ARNA ARRS

ARNA
Pre-Market Open: $13.40
Pre-Market High: $13.77
Pre-Market Close: $13.50
Pre-Market Volume: 308,794Shares
Friday After Hours High: $13.86

Regular Hours Open: $13.50
Initial Spike Price: $13.94
Time of Spike: 9:46am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.60 to $13.34
Time of Initial Drop: 10:14am
High for the Day: $13.94
Low for the Day: $13.34
End of Day Closing Price: $13.78 up $1.03


ARRS
Pre-Market Open: $11.51
Pre-Market High: $11.60
Pre-Market Close: $11.34
Pre-Market Volume: 307,272 Shares
Friday After Hours High: $11.70

Regular Hours Open: $11.36
Initial Spike Price: $11.36
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.20 to $11.16
Time of Initial Drop: 9:32am
High for the Day: $11.74
Low for the Day: $11.16
End of Day Closing Price: $11.60 up $0.61

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

October 3rd - ARNA ARRS

Cramer started out by talking about his call on Myogen Inc. (MYOG) which was just bought out for big gains. He then recommended Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ARNA) as his next biotech pick.

Closing Price: $12.75
After Hours High: $13.86
Percent Increase at High: 8.7%
Price Level Off Point: $13.68
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 7.3%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Healthcare
Short %: 14.47%
Days to Cover: 11.1

This is not the first time Cramer has picked ARNA as he did so on February 13th 2006. The stock closed that day at $15.02 and opened at $16.11 the next day and hit a high of $16.34 at 9:31am, just after the opening bell and hit a low afterwards of $15.50 for a drop of 5.1%. Of course the past does not predict the future but I would certainly be looking at the high $13's tomorrow for a good short entry point assuming it does not break $14. Cramer was very clear to not bid this up after hours but he didn't stop people so far and isn't likely to slow them down tomorrow. I of course have the DIVX spike in the back of my mind, but don't see the same thing happening here...but watch the news in case of any buyouts in the morning!

Cramer then recommended Arris Group Inc. (ARRS)

Closing Price: $10.99
After Hours High: $11.70
Percent Increase at High: 6.5%
Price Level Off Point: $11.67
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 6.2%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: 7.57%
Days to Cover: 7.3
% Held By Insiders: 3.41%
% Held By Institutions: 89.90%

Once again, anther repeat pick from Cramer. Cramer picked ARRS back on May 4th 2006 and here are the particulars from back then:

May 4th 2006

Closing Price: $12.16
After Hours High: $13.96
Percent Increase at High: 14.8%
Price Level Off Point: $12.80
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 5.3%

The next morning ARRS peaked in the pre-market at 8:17am at a price of $12.90. It then dropped quickly at the opening bell to $12.55.

So once again the stock is lower now then it was the first time he recommended it. Last time it traded in a pretty tight range the next day but did have a small window of opportunity for a short. Again, of course, the past does not predict the future but with $12 being a nice price to watch tomorrow morning there is potential here and as I have mentioned several times, if it breaks $12 early then I would personally stay away.

Finally, on the heels of the buyout offer for Harrah's Entertainment Inc. (HET) Cramer recommended buying MGM Mirage (MGM) due to its similarites to HET. The stock closed today at $40.42, which is just outside the price range which is best for shorting Cramer's picks based on my research. With the potential in ARNA and ARRS I see little need in worrying about this pick.

Monday, October 02, 2006

October 2nd - Repeat Show (Day of Atonement)

Given that today is the Jewish holiday Yom Kippur (I had to look this up of course) Cramer had a repeat show on.

Cramer had a repeat of his "Day of Atonement" show where he highlighted several of his worst picks. Of course, these are not picks that are going to be short-worthy come Monday, and doesn't really help short term shorting of his picks but could make an argument for some longer term shorting....but that's another story.

If you're interested, here are the bad picks Cramer looked at:

CD Cendant Corp.
Accounting Irregularities

DKS Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. Called before earnings and they missed

MRH Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. Said the hurricanes were done, then Katrina hit

CBH Commerce Bancorp Inc. (NJ)
NLY Annaly Mortgage Management Inc. Held both of these as the Fed was raising rates