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Friday, March 30, 2007

March 30th - JSDA SHLD RSH

Cramer once again recommended Jones Soda Co. (JSDA) as the next HANS

Closing Price: $20.22
After Hours High: $ 21.83
Percent Increase at High: 7.96%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 21.50
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 6.33%
Sector: Consumer Goods
Days to Cover: 3.5
Short %: 21.07 %
% Held by Insiders: 9.35 %
% Held by Institutions: 42.00 %
50 Day Moving Average: $15.62
200 Day Moving Average: $10.91
The stock is up big on earnings news and from what analysts are saying Cramer's positive interview with the CEO this past week. The stock was down almost $1 today as the stock was showing signs of being overbought from several technical indicators. The RSI was over 70 before today and the MACD also appears to be topping as the lines converge (at the bottom of the chart). So, with this 6% gain after hours I could see some more selling Monday morning.

Finally Cramer continued his benefit of the doubt segment and recommended Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD) and RadioShack Corp. (RSH). SHLD only had 8 trades after Cramer's mention and was up only slightly and RSH has only 3 trades also for a very small gain.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

March 29th - GOL RL SKS

Cramer recommended a Brazilian airline GOL Linhas Areas Inteligentes S.A. (GOL)

Closing Price: $29.88
After Hours High and Most Recent: $30.83
Percent Increase at High: 3.2%
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 4.2
Short %: %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: 53.60 %
50 Day Moving Average: $29.17
200 Day Moving Average: $31.20


The stock was up big today after they announced they are taking over one of their rivals, as Cramer mentioned. Cramer also said that he still recommends buying it to catch the momentum as the stock is on its way to $40. The takeover news changes the volatility of the stock and I think is going to throw the bollinger bands out the window for now since the stock is well above the top band even before Cramer mentioned it, and now the stock is about a dollar higher. Since this is more of a news driven spike vs. a Cramer spike I don't think it is a good idea to apply the Cramer shorting strategy here.

Finally Cramer continued his benefit of the doubt segment and recommended Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL) and Saks Inc. (SKS). Both are up slightly after hours on very low volume. RL is in the $80's and SKS in the low $20's so if it actually gets some volume and price increase it might be worth looking at, but this segment hasn't really been producing any good plays in my opinion.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

March 28th - CLX CAG COST KSS

Cramer recommended Clorox Co. (CLX) and ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG) as stocks that could benefit from "activist shareholders" who may try to force value out of the company thus creating shareholder value.

CLX
Closing Price: $63.66
After Hours High: $ 64.53
Percent Increase at High: 1.37%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 64.29
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.99%
Sector: Consumer Goods
Days to Cover: 1.4
Short %: 0.89 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.28 %
% Held by Institutions: 75.80 %
50 Day Moving Average: $64.50
200 Day Moving Average: $62.86

CAG
Closing Price: $24.62
After Hours High: $ 25.19
Percent Increase at High: 2.32%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 24.85
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.0%
Sector: Consumer Goods
Days to Cover: 2.8
Short %: 1.88 %
% Held by Insiders: 1.10 %
% Held by Institutions: 67.90 %
50 Day Moving Average: $25.57
200 Day Moving Average: $24.49

Tonight seems to be shaping up a little like last night where the after hours increases are rather small, even for a stock in the $20's like CAG. Has Cramer finally run out of new viewers or trigger happy ones that buy his picks up instantly?? Or maybe these are just dull picks?

Next Cramer continued his benefit of the doubt series and recommended Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) and Kohl's Corp. (KSS)

COST
Closing Price: $53.71
After Hours High: $ 54.08
Percent Increase at High: 0.69%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 54.03
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.60%
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 2.2
Short %: 2.07 %
% Held by Insiders: 1.14 %
% Held by Institutions: 78.50 %
50 Day Moving Average: $55.77
200 Day Moving Average: $53.26

Well, COST had a few 100 shares trades at a very small gain after hours and KSS had no trades that I saw and was still in the red from some after hours trades before Mad Money aired. Again, nothing to be said here with no price action.

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

March 27th - NYX JCP FD HRS

Cramer reiterated his buys on his picks of the year for 2007 and specifically looked at NYSE Group, Inc. (NYX)

Closing Price: $93.60
After Hours High: $ 95.61
Percent Increase at High: 2.15%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 95.29
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.81%
Sector: Financial
Days to Cover: 5.4
Short %: 24.29 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.72 %
% Held by Institutions: 57.10 %
50 Day Moving Average: $92.13
200 Day Moving Average: $78.82

Too high a price for me as the stock is only up 1.8%. If you have deep pockets and can control a lot of shares short then maybe it would be something someone might play, but for maybe 1% to the downside its not worth it in my opinion.

Cramer's next "Benefit of the Doubt" pick was J C Penney Corporation, Inc. (JCP)

Closing Price: $81.85
After Hours High: $ 82.82
Percent Increase at High: 1.19%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 81.69
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: -0.20%
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 3.4
Short %: 3.87 %
% Held by Insiders: 1.02 %
% Held by Institutions: 90.70 %
50 Day Moving Average: $81.75
200 Day Moving Average: $73.59

Apparently people don't like this segment or maybe the stock as the stock is down after hours after a small increase. Obviously no play if there is no spike.

His other "BOD" pick was Federated Department Stores Inc. (FD)

Closing Price: $46.23
After Hours High: $ 46.50
Percent Increase at High: 0.58%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 46.48
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.54%
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 1.3
Short %: 2.01 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.17 %
% Held by Institutions: 85.20 %
50 Day Moving Average: $42.86
200 Day Moving Average: $40.01

Although not in the red after hours, FD is hardly up. Again, no spike, no short potential.

Finally Cramer recommended Harris Corp. (HRS) after he did his homework on HSTX and said HRS (the parent company) was the better buy.

Closing Price: $50.21
After Hours High: $ 51.18
Percent Increase at High: 1.93%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 50.94
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.45%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 3.1
Short %: 2.02 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.56 %
% Held by Institutions: 83.70 %
50 Day Moving Average: $49.50
200 Day Moving Average: $44.58

Yawn! Another small percentage gain after hours, but in this case the price has gone above the top band of the bollinger band which was $50.81 (I didn't post the chart, but you can see at stockcharts.com if you want to). So this means the downside is hard to tell and there could be support at that top band as some stocks will "walk the band" or in other words, stick close to it. So maybe a small drop at the open, but unlikely for the stock to drop enough to consider here.

Update - CPHD PDLI

CPHD
Pre-Market High: $ 11.70
Pre-Market Low: $ 11.24
Pre-Market Close: $ 11.29
Pre-Market Volume: 1,251,687
Last Nights Price: $12.20 - $11.90

Regular Hours Open: $11.70
Initial Spike Price: $11.70
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.46 (-3.9%) to $11.24
Time of Initial Drop: 10:00am
High for the Day: $11.7
Low for the Day: $11.24
End of Day Closing Price: $11.3, up $0.43

PDLI
Pre-Market High: $ 21.08
Pre-Market Low: $ 20.83
Pre-Market Close: $ 20.96
Pre-Market Volume: 70,331
Last Nights Price: $21.39 - $20.90

Regular Hours Open: $20.93
Initial Spike Price: $20.95
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.20 (-1.0%) to $20.75
Time of Initial Drop: 9:39am
High for the Day: $21.80
Low for the Day: $20.75
End of Day Closing Price: $21.16, up $0.76


* Not really a great one with PDLI, although there was a small drop at the open, but not the more typical drop like CPHD.

Monday, March 26, 2007

March 26th - CPHD VFC PDLI

Cramer went looking for the next bio tech play that could get taken over like his recent pick BSTE and recommended Cepheid (CPHD)

Closing Price: $10.87
After Hours High: $ 12.20
Percent Increase at High: 12.24%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 11.90
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 9.5%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 26.2
Short %: 11.20 %
% Held by Insiders: 4.35 %
% Held by Institutions: 61.50 %
50 Day Moving Average: $8.53
200 Day Moving Average: $8.45


The stock has being "walking" the top band on the chart for the last several trading days and has an RSI over 70 which can identify an over-bought stock, all on news of an FDA clearance on March 19th. The stock was up during the day, but lost ground after hours, which could be a sign of some profit taking before the Cramer recommendation. There is a large short position in the stock with a large number of days to cover the short position. This could put keep the upward pressure on the stock and make it a scary prospect to short now. It would be hard to imagine the stock holding near 10% gains all day tomorrow, so assuming you can borrow shares to short, there may be an opportunity over $12, but if the stock goes even higher then the after hours tonight then I would stay away.

Next Cramer gave the "Benefit of the Doubt" (BOD) to VF Corp. (VFC). The stock trades north of $80, so not a price optimal for shorting in my opinion.

Finally Cramer recommended PDL BioPharma Inc. (PDLI)

Closing Price: $20.40
After Hours High: $ 21.39
Percent Increase at High: 4.85%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 20.90
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 2.45%
Sector: Healthcare
Days to Cover: 3.7
Short %: 8.95 %
% Held by Insiders: 2.14 %
% Held by Institutions: 71.20 %
50 Day Moving Average: $19.85
200 Day Moving Average: $19.64


People must have blown their money on the first pick as this one settled up only 50-cents. The price was above the top band already before Cramer mentioned it, so maybe some technical traders started letting shares go as they saw the spike after hours. Would be nice to see the high after hours achieved tomorrow morning with a similar drop afterwards.

Friday, March 23, 2007

March 23rd - FCX

Cramer had a double game plan with the first listing several stocks based on earnings reports next week, which I stay away from because the news will drive the price more then Cramer. His second game plan segment was for 2 IPOs, which once again aren't short plays. In his last segment he recommended Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)

Closing Price: $62.30
After Hours High: $ 63.35
Percent Increase at High: 1.69%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 63.15
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.36%
Sector: Basic Materials
Days to Cover: 3.4
Short %: 13.77 %
% Held by Insiders: 1.23 %
% Held by Institutions: 94.50 %
50 Day Moving Average: $56.76
200 Day Moving Average: $55.73

41 million shares were sold today in a share offering and the stock went up, and even higher after hours. That shows some strength in the stock if you ask me. The top bollinger band is at $64.39, so there is some room to the upside if the momentum continues. In the end though, the stock is too expensive and the after hours increase is only 1.36%.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

March 22nd - Q PICO

Cramer recommended Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q) saying that it would benefit the most from the telco sector if it wins a big government contract.

Closing Price: $8.83
After Hours High: $ 9.30
Percent Increase at High: 5.32%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 9.23
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 4.53%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 3.3
Short %: 4.69 %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $8.41
200 Day Moving Average: $8.26

The after hours price has pushed the stock above the top band of $8.92, although the closing price was pretty close to that to begin with. I could see the stock holding above $9 though so it leaves some decent room to the downside. I don't think the contact is going to be awarded tomorrow morning, but it would be something to keep an eye out for just in case.

Next Cramer asked people to do their homework on PICO Holdings Inc. (PICO)

Closing Price: $43.61
After Hours High: $ 45.37
Percent Increase at High: 4.04%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 45.11
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 3.44%
Sector: Financial
Days to Cover: 6.2
Short %: 5.87 %
% Held by Insiders: 27.09 %
% Held by Institutions: 61.60 %
50 Day Moving Average: $40.69
200 Day Moving Average: $34.56


I guess homework means bid the stock up 4% to some people? The stock was recently hit with a share offering at $37, but has rebounded very well since then and is still under the top band of $46.17 even with the healthy after hours increase tonight. The stock has a bit too much momentum and too many positive signs to short in my opinion.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

March 21st - HAYN NVO

Cramer started out talking about the final third of the market that has bottomed after the defensive plays and financials after the Fed took out the fear of more rate hikes in the near future. He listed several sectors (minerals, oil/gas) and listed some big name stocks that are now in play. He recommended HAYNES INTL INC (HAYN)

Closing Price: $67.86
After Hours High and Most Recent: $69.80
Percent Increase: 2.9%
Days to Cover:
Short %: %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %


The price is above the top bollinger band and the price was already near overbought levels. The top band is at $69, so we are well above that now, so I do expect some decline from this point tomorrow, but given the price of the stock, short history, and possible market enthusiasum from the Fed comments I'm not overly interested in shorting.

Cramer's next recommendation was Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)

Closing Price: $88.71
After Hours High: $89.86
Percent Increase at High: 1.3%
After Hours Most Recent: $89.78
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.2%
Days to Cover: 4.7
Short %: %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $86.37
200 Day Moving Average: $75.37

Nearly a $90 stock which is up only 1% after hours so there is limited downside here to play in my opinion.

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

March 20th - JCP RIG XTO TIN

Live from Texas, Cramer had a best of breed from Texas theme and recommended the following:

J C Penney Corporation, Inc. (JCP)

Closing Price: $79.80
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 80.45
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.81%
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 3.3
Short %: 3.50 %
% Held by Insiders: 1.02 %
% Held by Institutions: 92.50 %
50 Day Moving Average: $81.32
200 Day Moving Average: $73.16

Transocean Inc. (RIG)

Closing Price: $78.19
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 78.86
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.86%
Sector: Basic Materials
Days to Cover: 1.8
Short %: 4.10 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.11 %
% Held by Institutions: 77.00 %
After Hours High: $ 78.86
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 78.86
50 Day Moving Average: $76.35
200 Day Moving Average: $74.69

XTO Energy Inc. (XTO)

Closing Price: $52.10
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 52.77
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.29%
Sector: Basic Materials
Days to Cover: 2.1
Short %: 2.61 %
% Held by Insiders: 4.13 %
% Held by Institutions: 78.90 %
50 Day Moving Average: $49.47
200 Day Moving Average: $45.84

Temple-Inland Inc. (TIN)

Closing Price: $58.72
After Hours High: $ 59.74
Percent Increase at High: 1.74%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 59.60
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.50%
Sector: Consumer Goods
Days to Cover: 3.7
Short %: 4.18 %
% Held by Insiders: 1.19 %
% Held by Institutions: 72.50 %
50 Day Moving Average: $52.21
200 Day Moving Average: $44.24

Nothing is really jumping out at me for a short opportunity. All the percentages are rather small, with TIN up the most dollar-wise. I'm not going to post the chart for TIN, but it is above the 20-day moving average and below the top bollinger band of $61.65. The stock was up big on Feb 26th after Carl Icahn took a 7% stake in the company, and the stock has dropped a little bit at a time down to its closing level today before the Cramer recommendation. The stock has been able to hold above an "overbought" level (when the RSI is over 70) so as the stock flirts with that now it may be a non-issue in preventing the stock from going higher. In the end, I don't see any great reason to go short this one.

Monday, March 19, 2007

March 19th - "Ahead of the Curve"

Cramer had an educational show tonight about predicting market/stock moves. Looks like a new show to me given some of the on set items, and the tensor bandage on Cramer's right arm. I assume this was filmed early or maybe last week since Cramer is on his college tour tomorrow. Regardless, no picks are likely so we will wait for tomorrow, but the college shows of late haven't been great for picks either.

Update - NTSK

Pre-Market High: $ 11.70
Pre-Market Low: $ 11.31
Pre-Market Close: $ 11.49
Pre-Market Volume: 88,311
Last Nights Price: $11.50 - $11.31

Regular Hours Open: $11.50
Initial Spike Price: $11.82
Time of Spike: 9:34am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.90 (-7.6%) to $10.92
Time of Initial Drop: 11:22am
High for the Day: $11.82
Low for the Day: $10.80
End of Day Closing Price: $10.83, up $0.17

Friday, March 16, 2007

March 16th - CAT NSTK

Cramer's first recommendation was Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

Closing Price: $63.16
After Hours High: $ 64.02
Percent Increase at High: 1.36%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 63.94
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.23%
Sector: Industrial Goods
Days to Cover: 1.2
Short %: 1.40 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.16 %
% Held by Institutions: 67.30 %
50 Day Moving Average: $63.32
200 Day Moving Average: $65.64

CAT is too big a stock for Cramer to have a long enough influence on to consider shorting here, in my opinion.

Finally Cramer recommended Nastech Pharmaceutical Co. Inc. (NSTK)

Closing Price: $10.66
After Hours High: $ 11.50
Percent Increase at High: 7.88%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 11.31
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 6.10%
Sector: Healthcare
Days to Cover: 12.7
Short %: 16.53 %
% Held by Insiders: 4.19 %
% Held by Institutions: 51.30 %
50 Day Moving Average: $12.53
200 Day Moving Average: $14.74

Ok, so the stock was already up almost 9% today before Cramer mentioned it, and another 6% after hours. I don't see any obvious news for the big increase today that started this afternoon. Yahoo! finance shows a news link from today for a presentation the company will be having, but doesn't say much else. The price after hours is now above the middle band on the chart, but well below the top at $12.84. I wouldn't jump into a short without doing some homework to find out why the stock shot up as much as it did today and see if there is a good reason for the stock to be up 15% today. Given the 50 and 200 day moving averages being above the current price (which means anyone who bought in the last 200 days is losing money on their position), people may start selling and try to get as close to break even as possible.

Update - VOLC

Pre-Market High: $ 19.59
Pre-Market Low: $ 19.29
Pre-Market Close: $ 19.59
Pre-Market Volume: 16,258
Last Nights Price: $19.49 - $19.79

Regular Hours Open: $19.59
Initial Spike Price: $19.75
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.50 (-2.5%) to $19.25
Time of Initial Drop: 9:35am
High for the Day: $19.76
Low for the Day: $18.78
End of Day Closing Price: $18.85, down $0.06

Thursday, March 15, 2007

March 15th - CI VOLC

Cramer said he is still on the defensive with the current market conditions. He stressed companies who are actively buying back their stock, which is a strategy he has been stressing a lot lately. He said a there is such a stock in the non-drug making health care sector, and that stock is CIGNA Corp. (CI)

Closing Price: $140.88
After Hours: $141.68
Percent Increase: 0.6%
Sector: Healthcare
Days to Cover: 1.6
Short %: 1.32 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.63 %
% Held by Institutions: 80.30 %
50 Day Moving Average: $135.69
200 Day Moving Average: $117.10

Not much to write about here given the high price tag which isn't going to be bought up insanely after hours.

Finally Cramer had another medical stock Volcano Corporation (VOLC)

Closing Price: $18.91
After Hours High: $19.79
Percent Increase at High: 4.7%
After Hours Most Recent: $19.55
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 3.4%
Sector: Healthcare
Days to Cover: 2.6
Short %: 4.61 %
% Held by Insiders: 45.65 %
% Held by Institutions: 49.20 %


Much more interesting here with VOLC. The top band was approached after hours as the high was $19.79 and the top band sitting at $20.05. It would be nice for the price to get up to the high 19's tomorrow for a possible short entry point although we are around 50 cents below that level now. If the stock doesn't go to the high 19's the low isn't likely to be the middle band at $18.42 because that is just too low and it isn't likely to go red (below $18.91) unless the market is really bad tomorrow. There is some upward momentum in the stock coming off the lower band in recent days so I would take profits quickly.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

March 14th - C

On Mad Money's 2 year anniversary Cramer recommended Citigroup Inc. (C) as a stock that should go up if/when they get rid of their CEO.

Closing Price: $49.08
After Hours High: $49.45
Percent Increase at High: 0.8%
After Hours Most Recent: $49.35
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.6%
Sector: Financial
Days to Cover: 1.1
Short %: 0.38 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.75 %
% Held by Institutions: 63.80 %
50 Day Moving Average: $53.74
200 Day Moving Average: $50.64

Insignificant move after hours even with the price being near the bottom of the bollinger bands and showing a near oversold level with an RSI 32. With little increase that means there is only potential for a little drop, which isn't worth it in my books.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

March 13th - MO-WI DOW AA

Cramer started out recommending some stocks after the sell off today that was apparently based on the sub-prime crisis. He recommended defensive plays that do better in a bad market. He said to buy Altria but under the stock code (MO-WI) and not MO, which are the shares without Kraft foods (or called "when issued" shares). It closed at $63.10 today and it looks like it just started trading. I can find MO-WI on Yahoo! finance but not at my broker site, but regardless, its not one I'm interested in shorting (assuming you even can yet) because its "new" and expensive.

Finally Cramer spoke of some rumours that Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) and Alcoa Inc. (AA) could be takeover targets. These are both heavily traded stocks that are just too big for Cramer to have enough of an effect on. DOW and AA are still red after hours, so the recommendations haven't even brought them to even on the day.

Update - HNSN

Pre-Market High: $ 17.42
Pre-Market Low: $ 16.95
Pre-Market Close: $ 17.25
Pre-Market Volume: 22,477
Last Nights Price: $17.64

Regular Hours Open: $17.33
Initial Spike Price: $17.76
Time of Spike: 9:45am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.81 (-4.6%) to $16.95
Time of Initial Drop: 3:18pm
High for the Day: $17.76
Low for the Day: $16.95
End of Day Closing Price: $17.21, up $0.79

Monday, March 12, 2007

March 12th - HNSN

Cramer listed 5 oil services stocks to own and named SLB, NOV, GSF, HAL, and RIG. I'm not an advocate of shorting oil related stocks off a Cramer recommendation because there is always so much news around the sector that can change things on a dime, and being caught short during some "supply" news could be dangerous.

Finally Cramer recommended Hansen Medical, Inc. (HNSN)

Closing Price: $16.42
After Hours High: $ 17.64
Percent Increase at High: 7.43%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 17.64
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 7.43%
Sector: Healthcare
Days to Cover: 6.4
Short %: %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: 24.50 %


Big sustained spike after hours here. A low volume stock which had low volatility (as can be seen by the closeness of the top and bottom bands on the chart), Cramer wasn't able to make people use those tight limit orders he asked people to use. The price has shot past the middle band with some room to the top band at $18.28. I would be surprised to see it go that high tomorrow but $17.03 could be the floor.

Friday, March 09, 2007

March 9th - AKAM

Cramer started out with his game plan for next week which I don't really comment on since they are normally news related.

Next Cramer had his final "rubble" pick Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM)

Closing Price: $50.41
After Hours High: $ 51.64
Percent Increase at High: 2.44%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 51.45
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 2.06%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 2.2
Short %: 6.17 %
% Held by Insiders: 8.04 %
% Held by Institutions: 84.30 %
50 Day Moving Average: $53.97
200 Day Moving Average: $45.05


A stock Cramer has done well with in the past and one bouncing off a recent low down at the $47 level (and bouncing off an RSI close to 30 which means it was showing signs of being oversold). With the middle band at $53.22 this has plenty of room to the upside and calling a high for Monday would be difficult from just looking at the chart. I would look to see if the stock opens higher then the AH high from tonight as some recent picks have been doing that followed by the early drop, but the late rally today in the stock is a bit concerning.

Update - CHS AEA CHE

CSH
Pre-Market High: $ 41
Pre-Market Low: $ 40.74
Pre-Market Close: $ 40.74
Pre-Market Volume: 2,500
Last Nights Price: $40.79 - $40.66

Regular Hours Open: $40.74
Initial Spike Price: $40.90
Time of Spike: 9:37am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.90 (-2.2%) to $40.00
Time of Initial Drop: 10:45am
High for the Day: $40.90
Low for the Day: $40.00
End of Day Closing Price: $40.65, up $0.85


AEA
Pre-Market High: $ 14.89
Pre-Market Low: $ 14.62
Pre-Market Close: $ 14.89
Pre-Market Volume: 9,000
Last Nights Price: $14.74 - $14.70

Regular Hours Open: $14.80
Initial Spike Price: $14.87
Time of Spike: 9:41am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.34 (-2.3%) to $14.53
Time of Initial Drop: 10:03am
High for the Day: $14.89
Low for the Day: $14.53
End of Day Closing Price: $14.76, up $0.49


CHE
Pre-Market High: $ 47.50
Pre-Market Low: $ 47.15
Pre-Market Close: $ 47.26
Pre-Market Volume: 800
Last Nights Price: $47.05

Regular Hours Open: $47.50
Initial Spike Price: $47.70
Time of Spike: 9:33am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down to $0.97 (-2.0%) $46.73
Time of Initial Drop: 10:20am
High for the Day: $47.7
Low for the Day: $46.68
End of Day Closing Price: $46.96, up $0.91

Thursday, March 08, 2007

March 8th - CSH AEA CHE

Again looking at the "sub-prime" crisis Cramer recommended the following 2 stocks:

Cash America International Inc. (CSH)
Closing Price: $39.80
After Hours High: $ 40.79
Percent Increase at High: 2.49%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 40.66
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 2.16%
Sector: Financial
Days to Cover: 3.0
Short %: 6.26 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.51 %
% Held by Institutions: 89.00 %
50 Day Moving Average: $43.77
200 Day Moving Average: $38.70


The middle band at $41.60 could come into play as a possible resistance point or high tomorrow since the stock has had a hard time breaking that 20-day SMA recently. If there is a strong surge tomorrow above that level then I would be worried for an event like today with FSLR.

Advance America, Cash Advance Centers Inc. (AEA)
Closing Price: $14.27
After Hours High: $ 14.74
Percent Increase at High: 3.29%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 14.70
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 3.01%
Sector: Financial
Days to Cover: 8.8
Short %: 5.92 %
% Held by Insiders: 47.27 %
% Held by Institutions: 29.40 %
50 Day Moving Average: $14.22
200 Day Moving Average: $14.87

AEA approached the top band after hours but didn't quite make it. Given the price compared to CSH and price position within the bollinger bands AEA looks like it had better short potential at the high $14 level. The 200 day moving average may also present some resistance a little lower then the top band at $14.87, so I would be surprised if it breaks $15 tomorrow. If it does break that level with an upbeat looking market I would stay away to avoid a situation like FSLR today.

Cramer's 3rd installment of the "pick from the rubble" segment looked at Chemed Corp. (CHE)

Closing Price: $46.05
After Hours High: $ 47.05
Percent Increase at High: 2.17%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 47.05
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 2.17%
Sector: Healthcare
Days to Cover: 6.4
Short %: 6.18 %
% Held by Insiders: 5.91 %
% Held by Institutions: 83.20 %
50 Day Moving Average: $38.72
200 Day Moving Average: $40.66

CHE before the after hours movement was showing overbought signs with an RSI over 70 (but of course this is only 1 technical indicator and doesn't mean that the stock will go down). There is of course room to the upper band which is at $51.53, and stocks with similar charts (above the middle band but below the top) have performed pretty well lately. The stock was up big after its earnings announcement and has been slowing declining ever since. The low average volume would imply that it is not a well known company and this Cramer exposure may help it some but it looks like people are slowly taking profits as the stock hasn't continued to climb after the big spike.

Update - MHS GT FSLR

MHS
Pre-Market High: $ 69.25
Pre-Market Low: $ 68.70
Pre-Market Close: $ 68.71
Pre-Market Volume: 10,200
Last Nights Price: $68.40

Regular Hours Open: $69.20
Initial Spike Price: $69.20
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.88 (-1.3) to $68.32
Time of Initial Drop: 9:55am
High for the Day: $70.00
Low for the Day: $68.32
End of Day Closing Price: $68.9, up $1.14


GT
Pre-Market High: $ 29.30
Pre-Market Low: $ 28.80
Pre-Market Close: $ 29.10
Pre-Market Volume: 36,600
Last Nights Price: $29.10 - $28.83

Regular Hours Open: $29.11
High for the Day: $29.61
Low for the Day: $28.7
End of Day Closing Price: $28.86, up $0.38

* There was no real Cramer effect drop here as the stock opened higher then the after hours last night and went higher, although it did drop later in the day towards the close.


FSLR
Pre-Market High: $ 49.75
Pre-Market Low: $ 48.90
Pre-Market Close: $ 49.69
Pre-Market Volume: 28,688
Last Nights Price: $48.80 - $48.74

Regular Hours Open: $49.73
High for the Day: $52.07
Low for the Day: $49.64
End of Day Closing Price: $51.87, up $4.25


* Another stock that opened well above last night's price (nearly $1) and didn't really let up. I don't see any news to explain this large run up (but I only looked at Yahoo! finance), but this can't just be from Cramer can it? This might help show that the current market environment isn't great for shorting Cramer since I think people are looking for green at the open in hopes for a rebound from recent turmoil. Although I didn't get into any analysis last night and just posted figures, the price was at the middle band and had room to the upside to $56, and stocks that have shown lots of room to the upper band have done well after a Cramer recommendation lately.

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

March 7th - MHS GT FSLR

MedcoHealth Solutions Inc. (MHS)

Closing Price: $67.76
After Hours High: $ 68.40
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 68.40
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.94%
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 1.6
Short %: 1.72 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.06 %
% Held by Institutions: 77.00 %
50 Day Moving Average: $58.84
200 Day Moving Average: $56.94
Average Price Drop for Sector: 2.8%


Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT)

Closing Price: $28.48
After Hours High: $ 29.10
Percent Increase at High: 2.18%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 28.83
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.23%
Sector: Consumer Goods
Days to Cover: 5.3
Short %: 12.74 %
% Held by Insiders: 5.69 %
% Held by Institutions: 91.10 %
50 Day Moving Average: $23.88
200 Day Moving Average: $16.18
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.8%


FIRST SOLAR, INC. (FSLR)

Closing Price: $47.62
After Hours High: $ 48.80
Percent Increase at High: 2.48%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 48.74
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 2.35%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 1.5
Short %: %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %

Update - PKG

Pre-Market High: $ 25.40
Pre-Market Low: $ 25.30
Pre-Market Close: $ 25.34
Pre-Market Volume: 400
Last Nights Price: $25.26 - $25.56

Regular Hours Open: $25.30
Initial Spike Price: $25.44
Time of Spike: 9:39am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.36 (-1.4%) to $25.08
Time of Initial Drop: 9:56am
High for the Day: $25.44
Low for the Day: $25
End of Day Closing Price: $25.09, up $0.32

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

March 6th - BGC PKG BP

Cramer's first segment was about rumors and how they can effect stock prices. He named some financial stocks, but did not come out and make any recommendations.

He then moved on to suggest stocks that reported strong earnings before the big correction. Today is day 1 of a 4 day series about finding these stocks. Today's pick was General Cable Corp. (BGC)

Closing Price: $49.52
After Hours High: $ 50.25
Percent Increase at High: 1.47%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 50.10
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.17%
Sector: Industrial Goods
Days to Cover: 5.2
Short %: 8.93 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.24 %
% Held by Institutions: 94.40 %
50 Day Moving Average: $45.98
200 Day Moving Average: $39.12
Average Price Drop for Sector: 3.2%

Prior to Cramer's recommendation, the stock had settled at the middle band (or 20-day SMA). The strong earnings and big market sell off has created a great deal of volatility in the stock and thus has created a large range between the top and bottom bands as seen in the chart below. With the top band at $55.60 there is plenty of room on the upside. The market is a little tricky right now to be shorting Cramer's picks though where any day can be up or down big, and I think Cramer's picks can do the same.

Finally Cramer introduced the 4% club for stocks that all have dividends that are currently at least 4%, which are favorable stocks in a down market. The 2 stocks on the list are Packaging Corp. of America (PKG) and BP plc (BP)

Closing Price: $24.77
After Hours High: $ 25.56
Percent Increase at High: 3.19%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 25.26
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.98%
Sector: Consumer Goods
Days to Cover: 1.7
Short %: 1.10 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.77 %
% Held by Institutions: 77.90 %
50 Day Moving Average: $23.17
200 Day Moving Average: $22.59
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.8%

PKG found support at the middle band and bounced off it today during regular hours trading. After hours has taken the stock higher, but not all the way up to the top band at $26.18. The after hours increase isn't great here as this segment did focus on "safer" picks that pay dividends. Again, hard to say what the market might do, but taking note of the overseas market early tomorrow morning will probably give a good indication of where we might head. A positive outlook for the open would be a signal for me to stay away from shorting and vise versa, but keeping in mind that Monday the market opened red but rebounded, so taking profits on shorts quickly would be a good idea.

BP
Closing Price: $59.53
After Hours High: $ 60.00
Percent Increase at High: 0.79%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 59.93
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.67%
Sector: Basic Materials
Days to Cover: 1.0
Short %: 0.14 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.17 %
% Held by Institutions: 41.80 %
50 Day Moving Average: $63.91
200 Day Moving Average: $67.11
Average Price Drop for Sector: 5.5%

And too small an increase with BP to bother with in my opinion.

Monday, March 05, 2007

March 5th - PRAA

After a general market update and 2 "Know Your IPO" stocks (BBND and FIRE) Cramer recommended Portfolio Recovery Associates Inc. (PRAA) as a play on the sub-prime crisis.

Closing Price: $41.67
After Hours High: $ 43.60
Percent Increase at High: 4.63%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 42.56
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 2.14%
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 27.4
Short %: %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $45.47
200 Day Moving Average: $44.49
Average Price Drop for Sector: 2.8%


Low average shares traded daily and a high number of days to cover (27 days) the current short position could explain the rather large price pop after hours. The price was approaching the lower band after a huge drop from the $49 level and was approaching an over-sold level according to the RS Index being close to 30, so this Cramer recommendation may have put in a bottom for the stock. Unless a lot of people shorted in the last day or 2, I don't think anyone that shorted closer to $49 are going to be too worried about this spike which could allow for a nice drop on any irrational covering to a price similar to the high after hours of $43.60.

Friday, March 02, 2007

March 2nd - CLHB AW

After a segment on how to game plan, Cramer spoke about waste and recommended buying Clean Harbors Inc. (CLHB) and Allied Waste Industries Inc. (AW)

CLHB
Closing Price: $49.31
After Hours High: $ 50.92
Percent Increase at High: 3.27%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 49.31
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.00%
Sector: Industrial Goods
Days to Cover: 5.5
Short %: 9.39 %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $50.90
200 Day Moving Average: $43.26
Average Price Drop for Sector: 3.2%



Only 2400 shares traded after hours and the last trades (according to NASDAQ after hours site) shows trades at the closing price. The chart doesn't look like it will help much if the price does go up on Monday. The price, even at the after hours high is below the middle band (20 day moving average) and the stock has been hugging the bottom band during the market weakness. If there is a spike Monday I would look for something above the bottom band of $49.85 and expect it to come back down to at least the bottom band if the market continues to show weakness. The question is though....what is the overall market going to do Monday morning?

AW
Closing Price: $12.31
After Hours High: $ 12.61
Percent Increase at High: 2.44%
After Hours Most Recent Price: $ 12.55
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.95%
Sector: Industrial Goods
Days to Cover: 5.6
Short %: 5.30 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.75 %
% Held by Institutions: 75.10 %
50 Day Moving Average: $12.66
200 Day Moving Average: $11.72
Average Price Drop for Sector: 3.2%


Ok, this isn't a good sign. Only 1500 shares traded after hours on a "cheap" Cramer pick. This shows that people are scared of the market right now, because I highly doubt it has anything to do with Cramer telling people to do their homework over the weekend, because if the market were in better shape right now I'm sure people would have paid this stock up even more. The "boring" comment may have had an impact, but 1500 shares is still incredibly small. The stock has been down during the week dropping from near the top band to the bottom. After hours didn't take the stock up to the middle band, but that could represent the high on Monday ($12.77) assuming it goes that high. Again, assuming the market stays bearish it would not be surprising to see the stock continue to fall again back towards $12.21 which is the lower band.

Thursday, March 01, 2007

March 1st - Turbulent Times Education

Cramer's first segment was about not losing money in these turbulent market times. He said the market was down this morning because people were still looking to sell some of their positions and were panicking. Certainly an educational theme shaping up here as it appears Cramer is trying to educate some new investors about what is going on in the market.

Cramer moved on to talk about buying in a panic and the best way to do that is to have a list made up of stocks you like with price targets. So, if the market goes down and your prices are hit then you can just buy, regardless of how the overall market is doing. Cramer used AT&T Inc. (T) as an example where you could have bought the stock lower this morning if it were on your list, and the dividend it pays makes it a good choice. The stock moved up a few cents after hours, but certainly nothing to get excited about.