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Friday, September 29, 2006

September 29th - DOW and Defense

Cramer live from Georgetown University came out and recommended 5 DOW stocks and they were:

Altria Group Inc. (MO)
McDonald's Corp. (MCD)
Boeing Co. (BA)
American International Group Inc. (AIG)
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ)

These of course are all big name companies that are listed on the DOW. There was some after hours action in them but nothing substantial, which is not really surprising. No opportunities here in my opinion. I will say that it does appear Cramer likes to play it safe with the back to school tour and doesn't want to get the young investors sinking their money into a speculative stock.

Next Cramer looked at some military defense stocks and recommended the following:

Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)
General Dynamics Corp. (GD)
Raytheon Co. (RTN)
L-3 Communications Holdings Inc. (LLL)
CACI International Inc. (CAI)

All very expensive stocks with limited price increases after hours. Once again, not to exciting from the short side here.

Thursday, September 28, 2006

September 28th - Repeat - Retail Top 10

Cramer took a look at the best of breed retail plays. This is a repeat of his May 15th show and likely due to the fact he is on his back to school tour tomorrow. The stocks mentioned are:

BBY Best Buy Co. Inc.
LOW Lowe's Companies Inc.
COST Costco Wholesale Corp.
WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
MW Men's Wearhouse Inc.
FD Federated Department Stores Inc.
SHLD Sears Holdings Corporation
JCP J C Penney Corporation, Inc.
CWTR Coldwater Creek Inc.
SBUX Starbucks Corp.
CBH Commerce Bancorp Inc.

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

September 27 - NYX

Cramer started out by looking talking with NY Giants kicker Jay Feeley. No stocks were picked during this segment.

Next Cramer spoke of NYSE Group, Inc. (NYX) and said that his recent negativity was wrong. The stock closed today at $71.25 so is too expensive for shorting in my opinion even though it was up $1.25 after hours.

Update - DIVX

Pre-Market Open: $19.60
Pre-Market High: $20.15
Pre-Market Close: $19.73
Pre-Market Volume: 446,941 Shares
Friday After Hours High: $19.75

Regular Hours Open: $19.75
Initial Spike Price: $20.95
Time of Spike: 9:47am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.94 to $20.01
Time of Initial Drop: 10:19am
High for the Day: $21.84
Low for the Day: $19.60
End of Day Closing Price: $21.63 up $3.50


Not a pretty one today except for the long side of the trade. I indicate above the drop from the initial spike, but really this thing took off and held strong. I certainly didn't expect it to break $20 let alone $21.

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

September 26th - WAG DIVX

Cramer started out by talking about Walgreen Co. (WAG) and said it was a broken stock but not a broken company and was hit due to Walmart's move to cheap generic drugs and lowering margins and potential slowing of growth.

Closing Price: $45.11
After Hours High: $45.77
Percent Increase at High: 1.5%
Price Level Off Point: $45.75
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 1.4%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Services
Short %: 1.74%
Days to Cover: 5.9
% Held By Institutions: 0.64%

Too expensive and too big for my taste on a short here not to mention it is trading below its high for the day of $45.85 so the stock showed some excellent strength today and this Cramer recommendation may just add to it.

Next Cramer looked at a company that just had its IPO DIVX (DIVX) and said it was a buy with tight limit orders and not to trade after hours! Cramer said it has a connection with Google and deals with transferring files which includes Google's toolbar.

Closing Price: $18.13
After Hours Price: $19.60
Percent Increase: 8.1%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Average Volume: 1,162,600

This one kept climbing after hours the more Cramer spoke of it. This is the first time in a long time I have seen a stock react like this in the after hours market, especially since Cramer said to use tight limits and to avoid the after hours. The stock was even down today $0.37 and now it is up over $1 on the day! I would say that this is an easy short, but the insane spike after hours certainly gives me some hesitation. I would be shocked if this went above $20 tomorrow but that would certainly be the price I would watch and if it breaks that tomorrow in the pre-market or at the bell then I would stay away, otherwise it will likely drop at least some at the open in my opinion but I would take profits quickly.

Finally Cramer did a stock screen to find stocks with a 50 billion market cap, 1 year earnings of 25% with 20% growth for next year. Only 4 stocks came up and they were America Movil SA de CV (AMX) Google Inc. (GOOG) Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL) and Genentech Inc. (DNA). Cramer then said DNA is the "cheapest" and has the most upside potential. DNA closed today at $79.66 and is far to expensive for shorting off the Cramer recommendation in my opinion.

Monday, September 25, 2006

September 25th - Lessons from Amaranth

Cramer started out by looking at Amaranth, the recent hedge fund that lost billions recently. Cramer looked at the following items to learn from this situation:

1) Hubris is not a good strategy (a young stock picker). Don't be so risky and stay diversified.
2) Took on big debt when trading, possibly as high as 9/1. Don't trade on margin or at least cut back.
3) Don't think you know more than the Market.
4) Know where you money is going if you have someone managing your money.
5) Learn about your money manager and check their track record during bad times.
6) Even professionals can be fooled
7) Understand the stocks that you own - give 3 reasons for owning it
8) Don't be on things like the weather
9) Don't get attached to your stocks. Take your profits.

Cramer briefly mentioned right before the lightening round that Time Warner Inc. (TWX) was a buy because it is focusing on the cable business and will go to $27. This is a heavily traded stock, so not one I would short of this recommendation, no matter how high it might spike.

Update - AUO

Pre-Market Open: $14.79
Pre-Market High: $15.00
Pre-Market Close: $14.97
Pre-Market Volume: 96,900 Shares
Friday After Hours High: $14.75

Regular Hours Open: $14.95
Initial Spike Price: $14.96
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.41 to $14.55
Time of Initial Drop: 10:55am
High for the Day: $14.96
Low for the Day: $14.55
End of Day Closing Price: $14.72 up $0.33

Friday, September 22, 2006

September 22nd - AUO, Sell Ethanol

Cramer looked at LCD TVs and recommended AU Optronics Corp. (AUO)

Closing Price: $14.39
After Hours High: $14.75
Percent Increase at High: 2.5%
Price Level Off Point: $14.70
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 2.2%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Technology
Short %: 1.09%
Days to Cover: 3.2
% Held By Insiders: 1.23%
% Held By Institutions: 0.12%
Average Volume: 1,932,120

Not a huge price increase after hours for a stock of this price....maybe since it is a Friday and a down day in the market? Cramer did put a conservative price of $21 on the stock which still didn't push the stock much higher after hours. Cramer then said to not buy at the open and wait for the mid-day and that an analyst will upgrade the stock at some point next week. Certainly some potential come Monday morning assuming there are no upgrades right in the morning and as long as we do get that spike at the opening bell but preferable closer to $15.

Cramer next looked at Ethanol and said it was DEAD. He said the weakness is not just a buying opportunity and is not coming back. He said ADM is holding up ok because it is only 19% in ethanol. Verasun Energy, Corp. (VSE) and Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings, Inc (AVR) are down big. Even if oil goes back up, ethanol is still not a good play and the only reason it was a good play before is because of the speculators that were pushing the prices up, but in the end it really isn't that great of a product.

Finally, Cramer spoke of window dressing and named 9 stocks that are primed for a rise next week after the mutual fund managers buy stocks that have performed well over the last quarter to give the impression that their fund had these great stocks. Cramer suggested buying the following on Monday and well on Wednesday or Thursday:

RadioShack Corp. (RSH)
TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)
Charming Shoppes Inc. (CHRS)
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS)
Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL)
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (TROW)
Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN)
Morgan Stanley (MS)

The first 4 are in the right price range for shorting, with TJX the only one with any price increase to speak of after hours. Segments with multiple picks like this tend to get less after hours attention (unless there is a very cheap stock mentioned) as I think people need some time to digest the stocks so there may be some spikes come Monday even though there was little action to speak of tonight. Regardless, I still think AUO looks like the best bet anywhere near $15.

Update - TXRH RUTH

TXRH
Pre-Market Open: $14.10
Pre-Market High: $14.10
Pre-Market Close: $13.80
Pre-Market Volume: 11,081 Shares
Last Nights High: $14.06

Regular Hours Open: $13.95
Initial Spike Price: $13.95
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.45 to $13.50
Time of Initial Drop: 9:34am
High for the Day: $13.95
Low for the Day: $13.00
End of Day Closing Price: $13.07 down $0.38


RUTH
Pre-Market Open: $19.90
Pre-Market High: $20.10
Pre-Market Close: $19.70
Pre-Market Volume: 9,660 Shares
Last Nights Price: $19.90

Regular Hours Open: $19.69
Initial Spike Price: $19.69
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.42 to $19.27
Time of Initial Drop: 9:41am
High for the Day: $19.69
Low for the Day: $18.65
End of Day Closing Price: $18.76 down $0.35

Thursday, September 21, 2006

September 21st - TXRH RUTH MRT

Cramer started out by looking at restaurant stocks after 2 analysts upgraded Wendy's International Inc. (WEN) and Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI) which were near their 52 week highs. Both analysts had sell recommendations on them. Cramer said that lower gas prices would mean more cash in the low end consumer's pocket. Cramer recommended Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH) and Jack in the Box Inc. (JBX) .

TXRH
Closing Price: $13.45
After Hours High: $14.06
Percent Increase at High: 4.5%
Price Level Off Point: $13.87
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 3.1%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Services
Short %: 11.51%
Days to Cover: 8.3
% Held By Insiders: 20.55%
% Held By Institutions: 54.40%

Cramer said TXRH was a "buy on pullbacks" pick and is a regional to national story. JBX is a bit to expensive for my taste closing at $52.04. As Cramer mentioned, he recommended TXRH in the past (February 6th) and the stock peaked at 9:30am at $16.64 after closing at $15.51 the previous day and hit a low of $16.01. The stock did get the air taken out of it after Cramer said this was a slow story but we have a nice whole $14 dollar number to watch tomorrow even though it broke it tonight initially. For anyone that watched FAST MONEY they also hinted at a possible down turn tomorrow which may help the downward slide on any spike tomorrow morning in TXRH.

Next Cramer looked at higher end restaurants and looked at OSI Restaurant Partners, Inc. (OSI) Morton's Restaurant Group Inc. (MRT) Ruth's Chris Steak House Inc. (RUTH) and declared Ruth's Chris Steak House Inc. (RUTH) winner.

RUTH
Closing Price: $19.11
After Hours Price: $19.90
Percent Increase: 4.1%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Services
Short %: 4.51%
Days to Cover: 3.1%
% Held By Insiders: 29.58%
Held By Institutions: 60.10%

RUTH much like TXRH was down today and the Cramer recommendation has basically brought them slightly to the positive for the day. Another similarity is that we are right at the $20 price point which will be a key value to see if it is broken at the opening bell. They also trade under 500,000 shares a day but TXRH appears to be a bit more volatile in recent weeks.

Finally Cramer had his "Sell Block" segment and said to take profits from General Mills Inc. (GIS), Herman Miller Inc. (MLHR), Gymboree Corp. (GYMB), Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI), J C Penney Corporation, Inc. (JCP), and Oracle Corp. (ORCL)

Update - THQI

Pre-Market Open: $30.09
Pre-Market High: $30.09
Pre-Market Close: $29.98
Pre-Market Volume: 10,340 Shares
Last Nights High: $30.20

Regular Hours Open: $30.00
Initial Spike Price: $30.36
Time of Spike: 9:41am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.95 to $29.41
Time of Initial Drop: 10:42am
High for the Day: $30.36
Low for the Day: $28.76
End of Day Closing Price: $29.07 down $0.12

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

September 20th - Live from Boston College

Cramer, live from Boston College, started out by talking about the upcoming elections and speculated on what might happen given the outcome in terms of stocks. He had on the host of Meet the Press to have him give his thoughts.

Next Cramer suggested to the students that they should get into stocks now when they are young because even if you loose money, they have they have the most time to make it back. He spoke of signing up with online brokers and making time to do at least an hour of homework per week. He then gave 3 stocks for starting a portfolio and they were: at least 1 share of Google Inc. (GOOG), or a few shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), or a few shares of Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD). He said all of these stocks, although they look expensive, remind him of how Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A) which of course is a 95 thousand dollar stock. These are not shortable stocks based on a Cramer recommendation in my opinion for many reason that I have mentioned in the past, since these are popular stocks from Cramer.

Next Cramer looked at video games and recommended THQ Inc. (THQI)

Closing Price: $29.19
After Hours High: $30.20
Percent Increase: 3.5%
Price Level Off Point: $29.85
Percent Increase: 2.3%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: 14.42%
Days to Cover: 6.7
Held By Insiders: 0.90%

I compared the 5 day charts of THQI and ERTS and they trade rather closely. ERTS came out tonight and said the SEC has asked for their options information and there is concern of a backdating issue which brought the stock down after hours. Maybe people will see ERTS down tomorrow (if in fact it stays down considering Macke on Fast Money before Mad Money said it was a buy and a great buy on this dip) and it will hold back THQI? With the closing price of THQI at $29.19 and the high for the day at $29.71 and not to mention the 52-week high being broken, but not held at $29.20 it would take a substantial spike at the open for me to consider a short on the strength from today.

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

September 19th - SBUX

Cramer started out by looking at Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) and used it as an example of how to spot a bottom. The company got hit with high oil prices which took down consumer spending and put out a confusing earnings report but said they would still hit their numbers. The stock was downgraded and people panicked, even the institutions. The bottom line was that if a stock gets downgraded based on investor Sentiment and not numbers, then that is a good sign of a bottom.

Next Cramer looked at Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) and said it came down due to a new slow to make drink that brought down same-store sales. Cramer said this was a short term problem and called a buy and said they should beat their numbers next time. Although the stock is at an ok price point for shorting off a Cramer recommendation its just too big and well known for my liking. The stock was up $0.37 or 1.1% after hours.

Update - VRGY

VRGY
Pre-Market Open: $19.25
Pre-Market High: $19.25
Pre-Market Close: $18.85
Pre-Market Volume: 18,016 Shares
Last Nights Price: $19.15

Regular Hours Open: $18.98
Initial Spike Price: $18.98
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.64 to $18.34
Time of Initial Drop: 10:02am
High for the Day: $18.98
Low for the Day: $18.34
End of Day Closing Price: $18.63 up $0.08

(problems uploading chart, will post later)

As for ATHR and BRCM, both had small drops at the opening bell while ATHR spiked later in the morning and closed strong up nearly 4% and BRCM weakend just before mid-day and closed down over 1%. Hard to claim success with the ANGO no-short call since both stocks had opportunities for shorting, it may helped identify the strength in ATHR that occured since I don't see any other specific news to account for the strength considering the tech sector was beaten down a bit with the Yahoo warning.

Monday, September 18, 2006

September 18th - ATHR BRCM VRGY

Cramer started out by looking at Freescale Semiconductor Inc. (FSL) who was bought out and was looking to find the next stock that could fit its mold. Cramer named Atheros Communications Inc. (ATHR) and Broadcom Corp. (BRCM) as two take over targets who are good enough to own on their own

ATHR
Closing Price: $17.28
After Hours: $18.03
Percent Increase: 4.3%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: 12.5%
Days to Cover: 2.6
% Held By Insiders: 20.23%
% Held By Institutions: 90.10%

BRCM
Closing Price: $28.69
After Hours: $29.14
Percent Increase: 1.6%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: ?
Days to Cover: 1.0
% Held By Insiders: 7.02%
% Held By Institutions: 71.70%

Not surprisingly ATHR is up a bit more, which I can basically attribute to the fact it is cheaper. Also, looking at the insider and institutional holders for ATHR I can only assume that there is an error or a delay in some information as the holdings % is over 100%. Regardless of how wrong this is I have to assume that there is high non-retail investor holders of this stock, which in turn could reduce the float if they hold and drive the stock up on a low supply high demand scenario. They could also sell into the opening spike and pick the shares back up as the Cramer effect drop ends and thus help bring it down....but wouldn't they rather try to prop it up longer? We are hanging around $18 after hours but the stock was as high as $18.12 today so this is an ANGO no-short rule. Although I won't trade due to my rule, I will certainly watch with interest to see if $18 represents the top for tomorrows early trading. BRCM is also below its high for the day of $29.33, so once again an ANGO no-short. Although the rule is no 100% (closer to 50%) it has identified some strong stocks that have shown little to know Cramer effect drop.

Cramer continued his look at FSL and was trying to find other "spin-off" companies that could be taken over. His next pick was Verigy Ltd. (VRGY)

VRGY
Closing Price: $18.55
After Hours: $19.15
Percent Increase: 3.2%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: 0.81%
Days to Cover: 4.5
Average Volume: 124,612

Cramer did say to use limit orders and finished by saying that the company can't be sold very soon since it is so new and mentioned tax laws as the reason. He even said if you pay up $1 today that you will be down $1 in 3 days (the day he says you should buy based on his staff's research). This comment of course dropped the stock from $19.44 to $19.25. Even though Cramer says this could be down $1 in 3 days time, I still don't like the idea of holding a pick short that long since the market will take over beyond the first few minutes of trading the next morning and could drive the price up more. The stock jumped on September 11th from $16 to $18 and hit a 52-week high of $19.52 last Friday for a stock that has only traded since June. I think it has some potential for a quick drop right at the bell but am concerned about the recent strength and high numbers initially after hours. It also did break the 52-week high after hours briefly before Cramer spooked a few people.

Finally Cramer looked at forgotten stocks and said they can sometimes turn around and picked International Paper Co. (IP)

Closing Price: $34.18
After Hours High: $34.90
Percent Increase at High: 1.6%
After Hours Level Off Price: $34.59
Percent Increase: 1.2%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Consumer goods
Short %: 1.80%
Days to Cover: 4.0
% Held By Insiders: 0.40%
% Held By Institutions: 88.00%

Certainly not as exciting as the other picks tonight and is showing in the small price increase after hours. The stock is slightly above its high for the day but my focus will certainly be on VRGY. With the high (that I saw) at $34.90, anything near that at the opening bell would probably represent a good short point.

Update - TOL

TOL
Pre-Market Open: $28.38
Pre-Market High: $28.65
Pre-Market Close: $28.45
Pre-Market Volume: 11,200 Shares
Last Nights High: $28.60

Regular Hours Open: $28.34
Initial Spike Price: $28.36
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.32 to $28.04
Time of Initial Drop: 9:34am
High for the Day: $28.95
Low for the Day: $27.82
End of Day Closing Price: $28.16 up $0.07


Although there was a quick drop at the open, TOL did see a big later spike and subsequent fall, although I'm sure that the 2nd and 3rd spikes had nothing to do with Cramer, if the first spike even did either. As I type this there is a piece on home builders on CNBC, so there is plenty of news to follow on this sector.

Friday, September 15, 2006

September 15th - Home Builders

Cramer has called the bottom in the home builders and recommended buying the following stocks:

Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) Closing Price: $28.09
KB Home (KBH) Closing Price: $45.70
Lennar Corp. (LEN) Closing Price: $46.39
Centex Corp. (CTX) Closing Price: $53.45

His 10 reasons for this bottom he said were:

The stocks have stopped going down even on bad days in the market
The analysts have defended the housing stocks, but have now gone negative
Interest Rates have peaked
Employment is improving
Raw costs have declined
The stocks are priced to perfection
Buying a home is still a smart investment
Home builders are making money
Home builders sell close to book value
The media is starting to catch on and is calling the bottom too

TOL
Closing Price: $28.09
After Hours High: $28.60
Percent Increase at High: 1.8%
Price Level Off Point: $28.45
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 1.3%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Industrial Goods
Short %: 13.35%
Days to Cover: 3.9

TOL is the only one with a good price for shorting according to my research. The last time Cramer mentioned TOL in a focused segment the stock, which closed at $28.43 the night before opened at $28.68 and saw a high of $29.28 and closed at $29.08 so there was only a small opening spike and the stock showed strength. The short percentage last time (May 25th) was 11.6% with 3.6 days to cover, much like now. So the strength from last time could be seen this time around if short covering were the reason. Calling a housing bottom is a very bold pick here for Cramer. He claims to have an excellent track record for calling the home builders sector. The high today for TOL was $28.95 and we are well below that after hours here, so this would be an ANGO no-short rule here. Its been a while since I have seen this come up so I will explain my reasoning here. If a stock doesn't go above the daily high after Cramer mentions it after hours that means to me that the stock had strength on its own during the day to go as high as it did. This rule has been correct maybe just under 50% of the time, but it does help avoid some bad trades so I feel it is worth it.

Next Cramer looked at sporting goods and recommended VF Corp. (VFC) Columbia Sportswear Co. (COLM) and likes an upcoming IPO for Heely's. VFC and COLM are both too expensive here closing at $73.80 and $53.80 respectively.

Finally in Cramer's gameplan for next week he said to buy Oracle Corp. (ORCL) ahead of earnings. The stock had plenty of trading after hours, but all before Mad Money aired. The stock was also down after hours. Cramer also said Morgan Stanley (MS) AG Edwards Inc. (AGE) and FedEx Corporation (FDX) were good plays for next week, but again, all are too expensive for shorting any spike.

Update - LOGI TUNE

LOGI
Pre-Market Open: $21.19
Pre-Market High: $21.33
Pre-Market Close: $21.25
Pre-Market Volume: 23,528 Shares
Last Nights High: $21.85

Regular Hours Open: $21.35
Initial Spike Price: $21.38
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.20 to $21.18
Time of Initial Drop: 9:37am
High for the Day: $21.38
Low for the Day: $21.04
End of Day Closing Price: $21.18 down $0.11


TUNE
Pre-Market Open: $6.10
Pre-Market High: $6.11
Pre-Market Close: $6.04
Pre-Market Volume: 12,564 Shares
Last Nights Price: $6.03

Regular Hours Open: $6.01
Initial Spike Price: $6.01
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.16 to $5.85
Time of Initial Drop: 9:37am
High for the Day: $6.01
Low for the Day: $5.79
End of Day Closing Price: $5.86 up $0.15

Thursday, September 14, 2006

September 14th - LOGI TUNE HAR

Cramer started out by looking at the pin action off the good numbers from Best Buy this week. He recommended buying Logitech International SA (LOGI) Harman International Industries Inc. (HAR) Microtune Inc. (TUNE)

LOGI
Closing Price: $21.29
After Hours High: $22.05
Percent Increase at High: 3.6%
Price Level Off Point: $21.85
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 2.6%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: 0.61%
Days to Cover: 2.2
% Held By Insiders: 6.39%
% Held By Institutions: 13.40%

TUNE
Closing Price: $5.71
After Hours High: $6.43
Percent Increase at High: 12.6%
Price Level Off Point: $6.03
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 5.6%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: 7.44%
Days to Cover: 13.1
% Held By Insiders: 17.18%
% Held By Institutions: 43.40%

HAR is too rich for shorting in my opinion, but TUNE and LOGI have potential. Cramer was very aware that TUNE is a cheaply priced stock and knew that people will probably buy it before the other 2 picks. He said that it was very speculative and is doing an internal investigation on their own stock options. TUNE was also down today and had analyst coverage initiated on it with a neutral rating. Assuming these negatives on the stock are ignored by the Cramer buyers this looks primed for a Cramer effect drop tomorrow at the opening bell. Cramer even said that if it was bid up that the hedge funds would be shorting it. Since TUNE has broken $6 we can't look for that psychological number to find a top for the price tomorrow morning. There is a chance that $6 could represent a floor for the stock tomorrow morning if it does open higher, but with the negatives surrounding the stock I would be a bit surprised if it held $6. LOGI had a pretty good jump tonight and it too broke a psychological price after hours but has fallen below it now. In this case I don't think the price will break $22 on the initial spike tomorrow morning but could come close and have a quick drop, but if it does break it then I would leave it alone.

Next Cramer looked at Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) and to see if it is a broken stock or a broken company. The reasons for the recent decline are 1) missing their same stores sales growth numbers 2) revised down earnings guidance 3) Consumer spending is down. Not surprisingly Cramer said that COST was just a broken stock and not a broken company. COST closed today at $49.91 which is too expensive to create enough of a spike and drop tomorrow in my opinion.

Finally Cramer had his Sell Block segment where he tells us of any changed opinions he may have. He suggested selling Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) as the stock has seen a nice run up. He then suggested sticking with Legg Mason Inc. (LM) and said it could go to $120. Next he looked at Gap Inc. (GPS) and was bearish on the stock even after a recent upgrade. Finally he said to sell Hansen Natural Corp. (HANS), another stock that was upgraded and Cramer said to sell into this potentially short term strength.

Update - LVLT

LVLT
Pre-Market Open: $4.72
Pre-Market High: $4.89
Pre-Market Close: $4.89
Pre-Market Volume: 3,700,207 Shares
Last Nights High: $4.97

Regular Hours Open: $4.88
Initial Spike Price: $4.88
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.20 to $4.68
Time of Initial Drop: 10:08am
High for the Day: $4.99
Low for the Day: $4.68
End of Day Closing Price: $4.93 up $0.38

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

September 13th - LVLT

Cramer started out by talking about youtube.com and how to profit from it since it isn't a publicly traded company. Cramer said the companies that might buy youtube is not the way to make money off it. Instead Cramer said to buy Level 3 Communications Inc. (LVLT) as they are going to provide the broadband to be the backbone of youtube.


Closing Price: $4.55
After Hours High: $4.97
Percent Increase at High: 9.2%
Price Level Off Point: $4.77
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 4.8%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Technology
Short %: 8.3%
Days to Cover: 3.0
% Held By Insiders: 8.58%
% Held By Institutions: 61.20%
Average Volume: 26,073,600

A big volume low price stock that is sure to get plenty of attention. The stock is only up slightly from the announcement from youtube and was at $4.08 at one point Monday. The fact it is under $5 will take a few short sellers out of the game since some brokers won't allow shorting of stocks under $5. I would expect to see a typical Cramer effect drop at the open and wouldn't be surprised if the stock approached $5 but don't think it will break $5 early in the day. If it does break $5 in the pre-market or right at the bell I would personally stay away from it. Update: So much for my "guess" that this may approach $5 tomorrow morning, as the stock has already come close tonight. I am still dealing with delayed updates and it is pain in the butt. That problem should be fixed in the coming days though. This does show that the $5 psychological price barrier is in play right now and will be the number to watch tomorrow.

Cramer looked at KRISPY KREME DOUGHNT (KKD) as an example as to know when to sell a stock. The company hasn't filed financials for the last 2 years, and had its COO and CFO leave in the same year, was found to have earnings manipluation. Cramer said if your stock has any of these signs then to sell ASAP.

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

September 12th - CEO step down, GOOG USG

Cramer started out by talking about the firing of the Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. CEO, a call he mentioned yesterday and a few weeks ago as well where the stock has gained 13.2% since that first call on August 17th. Cramer put a price target of $26 on the stock. Cramer then went on to talk about the 4 other stocks he mentioned on August 17th where he said the stocks will go up if the CEOs step down.

The other 4 stocks were:
MMC Marsh & Mclennan Companies Inc.
AVP Avon Products Inc.
BOL Bausch & Lomb Inc.
HD Home Depot Inc.

None of these interest me from a short perspective. On the August 17th show he suggested buying call options on these and the stocks didn't trade much at all after hours.

Next Cramer looked at Google Inc. (GOOG) Its been a long time since Cramer has given the thumbs up for Google and is a stock I watch closely every day. It certainly goes without saying that this is far too expensive and volatile (although the volatility has dropped of late) to even consider shorting off a Cramer recommendation. Speaking of Google though, I was sent an article today about Google wanting to connect to people's microphones on their computers to "listen" to people's TVs and other sounds in an attempt to deliver ads! Apparently this has been news for a while now but this is the first I had heard of it. It seems so ridiculous that I thought it was a joke but there are several sites that make reference to this on the web. This news/rumor doesn't appear to have any effect on the stock, but if they start doing it I could see a lot of people being outraged.

Finally Cramer took a look at what Warren Buffet is buying now. Cramer said he is buying USG Corp. (USG) The company is a housing play stock that creates sheetrock which probably seems counter-intuitive to most market followers. Buffet is apparently buying up the stock hand over fist and even offered to back an offering if not enough people wanted to buy the stock. Cramer said the reason this stock is a good play because it is a commercial building play which isn't the same as residential. He also said the share holders are value investors, who won't sell the shares on a short term run up but continue to add. He also said that the housing slow down probably won't be as bad as people think and that Buffet is probably looking to profit from a big turnaround. Cramer said the stock has the potential to double but closed today at $48.87 which is too rich for a short off the Cramer recommendation in my opinion since stocks this high don't typically get a lot of buyers. In this case though there very well could be buyers, but I don't really like the idea of shorting it since this would be like shorting Buffet's pick....and that doesn't seem like a smart move.

Update - MLHR

MLHR
Pre-Market Open: $28.85
Pre-Market High: $29.00
Pre-Market Close: $29.00
Pre-Market Volume: 1200 Shares
Yesterdays Close: $28.54

Regular Hours Open: $29.00
Initial Spike Price: $29.00
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.62 to $28.38
Time of Initial Drop: 11:15am
High for the Day: $29.36
Low for the Day: $28.38
End of Day Closing Price: $29.22 up $0.68

Monday, September 11, 2006

September 11th - SGP LLY WYE BMY MLHR

Cramer started out looking at Drug stocks and said that people should own at least one in their portfolio. He said the big institutions are dropping cyclical holdings and oil and switching into drug stocks. He said the institutions want to buy the drug stocks to give the appearance that they have owned them for the end of quarter results. He then said drug stocks don't trade based on their p/e ratios or growth rate, but rather their drug pipeline and their patents on these drugs that will shut out generic competition.

Schering-Plough Corp. (SGP)
Closing Price: $20.62
Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) Closing Price: $54.26
Wyeth (WYE) Closing Price: $48.80
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) Closing Price: $23.39

SGP has been mentioned several times in the past and has never received much after hours attention. These are all bigger volume stocks that Cramer has little influence on. SGP was up slightly with a high of $20.94 and most recently at $20.90 up only 28-cents. BMY hit a high of $23.68 and most recently at $23.50 up only 11-cents. Of note though, BMY had a big trade after hours (before Mad Money) of 28,600 shares at the closing price. None of these really jump out at me as great opportunities.

Cramer went on to explain why the institutions are getting out of oil by using Chevron Corp. (CVX) as an example. The stock is higher now then it was when oil was in the $70's. With oil around $65, CVX is still up $6, so it makes sense for it to come down. Cramer also said he could see oil under $60 a barrel to maybe $56.

Finally Cramer had an office furniture play and suggested Herman Miller Inc. (MLHR)

Closing Price: $28.54
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Consumer Goods
Short %: 5.9%
Days to Cover: 8.8
% Held By Insiders: 6.95%
% Held By Institutions: 78.30%

Either not a compelling story for people to buy the stock or it can't trade after 6:30. So this one will come down to opening bell price action tomorrow to see if there is a big spike or not. This is a lower volume stock with high institutional holdings so there could be some Cramer influence on it. If there were a spike early it could scare some of the shorts until they realize what may have happened which may prolong the strength.

Friday, September 08, 2006

September 8th - KMB

Cramer started out.....wearing a diaper....yes a diaper and recommended Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB). The stock closed today at $64.00, which I consider to be too expensive for shorting off a Cramer recommendation due to the high price which tends to reduce the instant demand. Its been a while since I have given my opinion on why the demand is less, so here goes. I figure the demand is less because who really wants to buy 20 shares or so if they are a small time home gamer (typically the people who are buying the picks without thinking I assume). Cramer went on to say the reason why he is picking this stock is because of oil prices coming down which is part of diapers.

Cramer started a new segment called "Lets go to the tape" where he looks at recent moves in a stock. He looked at Deere & Co. (DE) and walked through how the stock went down 3 and up 10 very quickly. The reasons for the rebound were 1) the short position and quantity of put option buys 2) the cutting of guidance due to slowing construction 3) the fact that DE is not a housing play and slowing construction doesn't make it levered to housing 4) UPOD-under promise and over deliver 5) the fact they had very low inventory on their farm equipment. The long term investors then came in to buy the stock based on the same news the short term players were using to bet against it. This caused a short squeeze and forced the stock up.

Update - CROX

CROX
Pre-Market Open: $28.00
Pre-Market High: $28.22
Pre-Market Close: $28.10
Pre-Market Volume: 109,173 Shares
After Hours High Last Night: $28.00

Regular Hours Open: $28.12
Initial Spike Price: $28.23
Time of Spike: 9:33am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.94 to $27.29
Time of Initial Drop: 11:25am
High for the Day: $28.12
Low for the Day: $27.29
End of Day Closing Price: $27.72 down $0.03

Thursday, September 07, 2006

September 7th - GIS K CROX

Cramer started out by looking at recession stocks and spoke of Cereal stocks and mentioned his previous picks General Mills (GIS) and Kellogg (K) and said these are still good plays. He went on to mention that cereals aren't levered to the ingredients, and what people are actually paying for are the things like the cardboard box, the plastic bags, the fuel for shipping etc. Both of these stocks are too expensive for shorting in my opinion. GIS closed today at $53.76 and traded up to $54.25 after hours (at the time of this typing) and K closed at $49.81 and was up slightly to $49.87 after hours.

Next Cramer took a look at shoes and looked at whether Croc's (CROX) was a buy or sell. He noted there was a high short percentage in the stock. He then walked us through how to determine who is right with this stock: The Bulls or The Bears. This approach to picking a stock made for some up and down trading as people tried to guess what Cramer was going say...buy or sell. On the positive side for the stock was that they are making partnerships with colleges and other places, and is trading at less then 2 times its potential growth rate. On the negative side is that it is a summer shoe and the competition is increasing with cheaper versions that are increasing in quality. In the end Cramer gave it a "restrained buy" but said it had better beat its numbers next quarter. The stock did hit $27.99 briefly while Cramer was discussing the stock, but the "restrained buy" appears to have put the reins on any after hours increase here. At the very end of the segment he even added that there was lots of insider selling!

CROX
Closing Price: $27.75
After Hours High: $28.00
Percent Increase at High: 0.86%
Price Level Off Point: $27.65
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: -0.36%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Consumer Goods
Short %: 34.63%
Days to Cover: 8.2
% Held By Insiders: 30.49%
% Held By Institutions: 49.00%

Cramer picked this a while back and the stock did spike and fell for days afterward. Considering the stock is in the red after hours on a buy pick (which I have never seen before) I don't think this "pick" is going to spike much tomorrow.

Update - MAT PLT

MAT opened today at yesterday's closing price of $19.10. The stock was as high as $19.40 last night, but didn't come close to at all today and there was no spike to speak of that can be credited to Cramer.

PLT was an example where the pre-market price went above the after hours price. Of note here though is that the opening price and initial spike was well below the pre-market prices.

PLT
Pre-Market Open: $18.25
Pre-Market High: $18.50
Pre-Market Close: $18.49
Pre-Market Volume: 1300 Shares
After Hours High Last Night: $18.22

Regular Hours Open: $17.88
Initial Spike Price: $18.15
Time of Spike: 9:31am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.50 to $17.65
Time of Initial Drop: 10:37am
High for the Day: $18.15
Low for the Day: $17.45
End of Day Closing Price: $17.54 down $0.21

BLTI had no pre-market action, but for a cheap stock did open and have a very small spike up to $5.60 from $5.52 before seeing a low for the day of $5.32. No great opportunity here really, and the decline was likely market related and not Cramer related.

ID, LMS, PWEI, PMTI, CUTR, MNT, URS and VMC all opened in the red today and had no spike to speak of.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

September 6th - California Legislation Plays

Cramer started out with Trend Setting and how California sets them. He spoke specifically about legislation and how it will influence.

The first legislative bill was to tax large square footage stores, which would mean selling WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc. now and hope the law gets squashed.

The second bill is the booster seat bill which would require more booster seats to be needed. The stock to buy for this would be MAT Mattel Inc.

The third bill deals with Tele-Com companies and how they will require less red tape basically. This means selling CHTR Charter Communications Inc.

MAT
Closing Price: $19.10
After Hours High: $19.40
Percent Increase at High: 1.6%
Price Level Off Point: $19.20
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 0.5%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Consumer Goods
Short %: 1.14%
Days to Cover: 2.1
% Held By Insiders: 0.40%
% Held By Institutions: 87.90%

Big institutional holdings in MAT (the only buy pick...I don't short sell picks) but only a measly .10 cent increase after hours but was up .30 cents, but on light after hours volume. The after hours action isn't always reflective of the next mornings action. For example, today NSTR jumped higher at the 9:30 open then it had traded after hours the night before and the entire pre-market. So with a cheap er stock like this, a 9:30 spike above $19.40 would not be a surprise anymore. And if it does do that, the same quick drop could be seen.

Cramer then continued to look at more potential laws that could have stock impacts.

A bill that would prevent illegal immigrants from being nurses law. This would help AHS AMN Healthcare Services Inc. This is a stock Cramer mentioned recently and did NOT make for a good short as the stock was stayed very strong the entire day. Even with its attractive price for shorting ($23.99 close), I dare not touch this one here. The stock closed after hours up 37-cents at $24.36 on light volume though.

Next is a bill about requiring a head set when driving with a cell phone. The stock here is PLT Plantronics Inc.

PLT
Closing Price: $17.75
After Hours High: $18.22
Percent Increase at High: 2.6%
Price Level Off Point: $18.18
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 2.4%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Technology
Short %: 10.07%
Days to Cover: 4.7
% Held By Insiders: 0.92%

The next bill was for all states requiring state issued ID cards. The stock here is ID L-1 IDENTITY SOL There were no trades during the show for this one. The stock closed today at $14.15 and has a smallish average daily volume of shares at 313,000 so could have some 9:30am spike potential.

Next is a bill banning Lead Pipes. This is good news for LMS Lamson & Sessions Co. and PWEI PW Eagle Inc. LMS had no after hour trades during the show and is currently at $25.93 and PWEI was down big today as well as after hours. A few trades have brought it to within 1-cent of the regular close at $33.88.

The next bill is one that will allow dentists to do some forms of plastic surgery.
The stocks here are PMTI Palomar Medical Technologies Inc. CUTR Cutera Inc. BLTI Biolase Technology Inc. and MNT Mentor Corp. BLTI is the only one that traded after hours, but for a $5.52 stock, it was only up 2-cents on a few trades.

Next is a bill to lower prices for prescription drugs for medi-care. This will hurt PFE Pfizer Inc. and MRK Merck & Co. Inc.

Next is a toilet bill that will require less water. The pick here is ASD American Standard Companies Inc. because it is the best toilet that uses less water.

The next bill is shore up the levies in California and the stock is URS URS Corp. which had 1 trade after hours taking the stock up 55-cents to $40.09.

Finally, the last bill to potentially influence the stock market was one about fixing roads and the stock was VMC Vulcan Materials Co. which closed today at $77.39, which is too rich for a short in my opinion, and had no action after hours.

Update - NSTR

NSTR
Pre-Market Open: $11.89
Pre-Market High: $12.07
Pre-Market Close: $12.01
Pre-Market Volume: 1300 Shares
After Hours High Last Night: $11.90

Regular Hours Open: $12.14
Initial Spike Price: $12.14
Time of Spike: 9:30am
Initial Drop in Price from Initial Spike: down $0.38 to $11.76
Time of Initial Drop: 10:30am
High for the Day: $12.14
Low for the Day: $11.70
End of Day Closing Price: $11.70 up $0.17

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

September 5th - Medical Plays

Cramer first took a look at medical plays and specifically about companies who specialize in "replacing" body parts.

Heart Plays
MDT Medtronic Inc. Closing Price: $46.53
STJ St. Jude Medical Inc. Closing Price: $36.27
Sell BSX Boston Scientific Corp.

Brain Plays
NSTR Northstar Neuroscience, Inc. Closing Price: $11.53
Sell CYBX Cyberonics Inc.

Kidney Plays
NXTM Nxstage Medical, Inc. Closing Price: $9.72 - Said Don't Buy!

Orthopedic Plays
SNN Smith & Nephew plc Closing Price: $44.32

NSTR is the cheapest of the picks that was a buy pick from Cramer. It traded very lightly today at about 1/5th the normal volume and was down $0.27. Unfortunately, and once again, my source for after hours market information has been shut down and I don't have live numbers. The next site I am using appears to be delayed. Either that or there haven't been any trades in these stocks at all. Yahoo! Financial isn't even showing after hour prices either. They even have a note saying " We can no longer offer real-time ECN data due to pricing changes by the exchanges." This is certainly throwing a wrench in my blogging for now. Worst case scenario will be having to update the pricing later on.

NSTR
Closing Price: $11.53
Trades on NASDAQ
After Hours High: $11.90
Percent Increase: 3.2%
Price Level Off Point: $11.85
Percent Increase: 2.8%
Sector: Healthcare
Short %: 4.96%
Days to Cover: 7.9
% Held By Institutions: 33.10%
Average Volume: 103,302
Today's Volume: 19,985

Cramer's next segment of medical plays looked at external medical plays.

Eye Plays
WMGI Wright Medical Group Inc. Closing Price: $22.79
ACL Alcon Inc. Closing Price: $118.20

Skin Plays
AGN Allergan Inc. Closing Price: $113.63
MRX Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp. Closing Price: $29.94
MNT Mentor Corp. Closing Price: $48.04

Hair Plays
PFE Pfizer Inc. Closing Price: $27.84

Rehab Plays
DJO DJO Incorporated Closing Price: $38.53

So I am delayed at least 15 minutes right now with after hours quotes, but have seen some action in NSTR as shown above as well as SNN (which is a bit to expensive and only had a few trades). I think maybe a case of information overload with the number of picks tonight. Cramer also mentioned in his later segment about how people have become overly bearish this summer, which I think is adding to the lack of trading of Cramer's picks. Maybe this will wake some people up to start buying his picks this coming week and beyond. With NSTR the only pick I see with any action to speak of so far, there is some shorting potential with it. Cramer did say he expects these stocks to be down more this week, so the 35-cent increase after hours could be erased quickly. Might be very tough to find many buyers though on such a small daily average volume.

Monday, September 04, 2006

September 4th - Another Speculation Repeat

Hopefully the last of the repeats on this holiday Monday. This was another repeat on speculating (although different than the speculation episode on last week). This one was so old that the premier of "Am I Diversified" was shown.

Saturday, September 02, 2006

Any NFL Fans?

I know this is a little off topic, but after watching Fast Money the other night and hearing that athletes make for good investors I figured I would post this here...... So, if there are any NFL fans out there interested in seeing some weekly match up statistics I have created a little database for myself to output some stats I find useful when playing in a football pool I'm in.

http://cramertracker.tripod.com/nfl_2006_match_up_preview.htm

Friday, September 01, 2006

September 1st - Baby Boomers - Repeat

So the last repeat of the week, and likely 1 more to come on Monday. Tonight's repeat was Baby Boomer plays and the stocks mentioned were:

FS Four Seasons Hotels Inc.
AXP American Express Co.
BKS Barnes & Noble Inc.
OEH Orient-Express Hotels Ltd.
LVS Las Vegas Sands Corp.
IGT International Game Technology
SGMS Scientific Games Corp.
MRT Morton's Restaurant Group Inc.
RUTH Ruth's Chris Steak House Inc.
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
HOT Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc.

A few of these picks are under $20 so may get a little attention but I don't expect much. The holiday on Monday will likely make people forget about these by Tuesday.