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Tuesday, October 24, 2006

October 24th - GOOG NFLX NOK

Cramer started off talking about Google Inc. (GOOG) and how everyone has an opinion on it again after its big quarterly results. If you don't know this stock trades well north of $450 then you have probably been living under a rock. It goes without saying that I would not short GOOG on a Cramer recommendation and in fact it is a rule of mine to not even short a stock that is compared to GOOG. I do have a theory on GOOG and why I think that being long it is a good idea. As you can probably tell I am set up with Google Adsense, hence the ads you see on my site. Google doesn't say how much they pay their web publishers per click they get...it is just some random number. So, basically Google can take as much of the advertising money as they want until they have hit their "numbers". I use quotes around "numbers" because they don't give guidance, so who knows what those numbers are. I have also noticed that my site revenue has declined since the beginning of this new quarter on a comparable number of clicks. Maybe this is just coincidence, but maybe it is Google making sure they make enough money so their stock doesn't tank. I would also like to point out that during the ends of quarters I have seen an increase in ad revenue, probably Google wants to keep the publishers happy right? Now I am just a small time site that is lucky to get 100 hits a night so maybe my numbers mean nothing but I still think Google’s cloud of secrecy helps them do things like this (if in fact they are...and this is solely my opinion and not fact) and at the same time hurts their stock price because people aren't sure what they might be doing, not to mention "click fraud". Anyway, that’s my 2-cents.

Cramer did some comparisons of Google with other companies who have higher p/e ratios, even though Google has better growth and came up with some staggering price "targets", upwards of $924 if Google traded at those multiples. Of course he did not say this is possible, but said Google is still cheap even at its current price.

Next Cramer apologized for his constant bearish attitude on
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) and said it was a buy now. Although the price is in a desirable shorting range, given its recent strong earnings report from yesterday its not something I would look to short here.

Finally Cramer recommended Nokia Corp. (NOK) and once again it is a stock I would shy away from shorting since it is too big and well known for Cramer to have much influence on.

So it appears Cramer is sticking with big companies these days and why not? With the Dow at all time highs why not recommend the big stocks and limit the risk to his viewers?

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