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Friday, April 28, 2006

Update - NKTR HWAY MATR

Finally a Cramer pick traded with some volume in the pre-market today. NKTR Nektar Therapeutics opened at $21.40 at 8:00am and traded in a .10-cent range between $21.40 and $21.30. Right before the 9:30 open it slipped to $21.07, which represented the best cover point so far. The stock traded to its high of $21.50 at the bell and has been trading in a tight range again between $21.50 and $21.30, and briefly touched $21.25. The first drop, although not on huge volume, has occurred so it’s hard to know what will happen now. There was a big trade that happened at 9:57am with over 330,000 shares traded. Maybe a big short covering or some support? As I type, the stock has just reached new highs of $21.62. There could still be a decline coming, but at this point the best opportunity was in the pre-market.

End-of-day Update: So this one held on strong. An early cover when it dipped to the low $21's in the pre-market or a very well timed short near the tops would have been the only opportunites to get out of this one for a single day short. So not a great one today. Might have been the short interest in it prior to the Cramer mention that kept this one up. Also, the 330,000 at $21.46 share spike in the morning was followed by 3 big spikes of 60,000 80,000 and 200,000 right at the close at $21.51. Coincendence that these almost add up to the same amount of shares? The price difference of only .05-cents seems odd, but somthing to keep an eye on in the future. Maybe the Market Maker loading up or dumping?


HWAY which I applied the ANGO no short rule to appears to be a pretty good call so far. Another light trader in the pre-market where it hovered around last nights after hours price of $48.60. It fell right before the open to $48.23 and has gone back to the $48.70 - $48.60 range. This could still come down (or go up), but this is a pretty good example of why I came up with ANGO rule where I won't short a Cramer pick that doesn't go above the regular hours price before the Cramer mention. In this case HWAY traded mostly at $48.65 after Cramer picked it and the regular hours high was $48.70.

End-of-day Update: In the end a very good no-short call with HWAY. It climbed all day and closed above last nights after hours high.


MATR on the other hand is an example where the ANGO rule to not short didn't work out. This gives the rule about a 50% success rate. And if you ask me, it’s still a good rule. MATR opened at $30.86 at 9:30 after trading lightly in the pre-market but at the $31.50 level. It then went up after the bell to $31.22 a few minutes in and has drifted lower to $30.51. So an opportunity missed based on the rules, but a safer way to trade the picks.

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