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Tuesday, January 30, 2007

January 30th - WSII GBX

Cramer had 2 Short Busting plays meaning he is picking stocks that are heavily shorted and Cramer thinks the shorts have got it wrong. The first pick was Waste Services Inc. (WSII)

Closing Price: $10.72
After Hours High: $11.98
Percent Increase at High: 11.8%
After Hours Most Recent: $11.70
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 9.1%
Sector: Industrial Goods
Days to Cover: 14.5
Short %: 5.49 %
% Held by Insiders: 22.51 %
% Held by Institutions: 8.40 %
50 Day Moving Average: $10.10
200 Day Moving Average: $7.84
Average Price Drop for Sector: 3.2%

I think a lot of previous shorts may take a spike as a chance to double down if they are strong in their convictions about the stock going down. It may be risky to jump in for a short on this spike if there is a lot of covering tomorrow. The stock has had a slow climb up from the low 9's over the last several months which apparently hasn't scared any of the shorts. Considering the stock is now over its 52-week high it does seem odd there are so many shorts. Did the shorts get in well above the current price or are they all losing money right now? The stock was near $20 in 2004, so if the shorts got in then, I'm not sure they will be scared by a move to $12 just yet. Seems very odd to me and if it goes over $12 tomorrow I would certainly stay away since it didn't break that level tonight.

The next short buster was Greenbrier Companies (GBX)

Closing Price: $27.36
After Hours High and Most Recent: $29.02
Percent Increase at High: 6.0%
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 4.4
Short %: 18.32 %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $32.71
200 Day Moving Average: $32.60
Average Price Drop for Sector: 2.8%

Ok, this one looks more like a shorted stock since it is below its moving averages and is well below its 52-week high. The price is holding well and broke through $29 even after the initial surge. There may be difficulty shorting this one with almost 20% shorted already so there may be a hard time borrowing (assuming it doesn't get naked shorted as mentioned during the segment from a caller). It is certainly concerning that the price has continued to climb up, so this could be a "dead-cat bounce" situation where Cramer has helped put in the floor to the falling stock. So although Cramer claims we have 2 short busting scenarios, they are 2 very different stocks from a technical standpoint which both show signs they could show strength tomorrow.

Comments on "January 30th - WSII GBX"

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 30, 2007 6:24 PM) : 

I saw it hit 11.90 in the first second. It certainly ran way up on this recomendation. I agree the question is how will the shorts react? Certainly some will panic in the morning...but how soon...we might still get our 30 minute drop. I am considering doing my short then switch to long idea in the morning. I agree though that I will wait untill morining to make a purchase/sale.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 30, 2007 6:43 PM) : 

I think Cramer has picked stocks like this in the past (low Float high short percentage). He just did not say he was "short busting" when he did it. I will also wait on this one and maybe go short in a few days if he does cause a spike that last more then one day. Yesterdays pick DGX is where my sister works she sold most of her stock this week ( ten bagger).They lost a BIG contact and may have problems in the future.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 30, 2007 6:49 PM) : 

Was that the reason for the drop at end of Sept or is this is new contract loss...I wonder? I have use Quest and thought they were very good, but I guess it really comes down to snaging contracts.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 30, 2007 6:56 PM) : 

Yes I think it was in September. Still a good company but they are going to over work there employees to make up for the lost revenue. Changes are working there way down the food chain. Alot of pressure to make the numbers.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 30, 2007 7:05 PM) : 

Oops meant their

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 30, 2007 9:38 PM) : 

Look at Waste Services. This company has an average 3 month volume of 85000. Suddenly with no apparent news, there was a volume and price spike today. 250k shares traded right before the cramer bump.

Someone must be getting tipped off with Cramer's tips.

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (January 30, 2007 9:57 PM) : 

Anyone that calls in can hear the show before it is aired. Even though people are told not to trade the picks before the show acutally ares I'm surprised more people don't do it. I'm not sure how they would track it. But a 250k block is a bit more then the average watcher me thinks.......

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 31, 2007 9:36 AM) : 

Anyone watching wsii this morning ?

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 31, 2007 9:47 AM) : 

Im short WSII at 11.85. I just covered half at 11.65 and I have an open order to cover at 11.60. HOwever I dont know if Ill have the guts to go long at 10:15 like I planed.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 31, 2007 9:49 AM) : 

Yes...just filled 11.60, Im sure it will go down more but I am happy to be out. I was a little worried about a short squeeze this morining

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 31, 2007 9:50 AM) : 

Took guts to go short this one - nice trade !

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 31, 2007 9:52 AM) : 

crap #$%@....I should have been more patient, this thing always works in the half hour time frame...I just dont always have the guts to wait it out...now it droping like a rock....#$#%@

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 31, 2007 10:04 AM) : 

ok I got to try it...I put in an order to buy at 11.50 try to go long for the next half hour...right now its at 11.54

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 31, 2007 10:09 AM) : 

I think what Im doing is virtually kicking myself in the nuts to verify that it hurts...I got filled and it keeps droping

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 31, 2007 10:34 AM) : 

ok...last comment, back out at 11.40. Good leason, just play one side on iffy shorts...Its ok though, I still ended up.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 31, 2007 11:03 AM) : 

Looks like its going back up now.

 

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