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Thursday, January 18, 2007

January 18th - WCI DNA

Cramer started out by talking about piggy backing off others winning picks and used Carl Icahn as an example. He then mentioned stockpickr.com as a place to find some of this info. Cramer then said a stock that is being bought is WCI Communities Inc. (WCI), but halted people from bidding it up by saying not to jump in just yet, which brought stock down after hours, but it went up again as Cramer continued the segment and was positive on the stock, but then at the end said its important to be patient! Wow...he really messed with the after hours buyers!

Closing Price: $21.88
After Hours High: $23.30
Percent Increase at High: 6.5%
After Hours Most Recent: $22.23
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.6%
Sector: Industrial Goods
Days to Cover: 6.8
Short %: 50.53 %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $18.05
200 Day Moving Average: $18.93
Average Price Drop for Sector: 3.2%

Ha...if anyone shorted right at the spike after hours it would have been an easy short, but lots of people had no patience tonight and were buying even though Cramer was up and down on the stock all segment. It was very funny watch the price as it changed on every word Cramer said. Either way, the air is already out of this one.

Next Cramer spoke of Genentech Inc. (DNA) and said it is lower today then it was a year ago, even though the company has a growth rate that was more than double what was expected (30% estimate to 70% actual).

Closing Price: $87.53
After Hours Most Recent: $88.48
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.1%
Sector: Healthcare
Days to Cover: 3.8
Short %: 2.23 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.01 %
% Held by Institutions: 39.20 %
50 Day Moving Average: $82.01
200 Day Moving Average: $81.07

You could tell people held off buying until they heard Cramer go positive on the stock, unlike WCI above. This segment had a bit of an education theme to it, and is certainly not a speculative pick. As has been discussed lately in the comments of some recent posts, a theory of mine is that when Cramer goes "educational" and stays away from small speculative picks that it may be a signal that he thinks the market is turning to the downside. So why doesn't he come right out and just say that? Well, if he did, I think it would hurt his ratings which is the last thing he would want.

Finally Cramer did his Sell Block segment, which I stay away from shorting because he makes sell picks and not buy picks, which basically has a reverse effect.

Comments on "January 18th - WCI DNA"

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 18, 2007 6:16 PM) : 

I tried at to short at the high but there were no short shares available...this may get a good short squeeze tommorow at the usaul time. we shall see...

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 18, 2007 6:37 PM) : 

Yahoo stats say 120% institutional ownership for wci. I dont like stocks with very high institutions owning. Why do they loan the stock out to be shorted? I know these are short term trades but something like this can go up and just keep going. Glad he did not defend CWTR shorted it ah.

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (January 18, 2007 6:42 PM) : 

They probably loan the shares out to be shorted because they know it is like rocket fuel for it to go higher. I always look at the institutional and insider numbers, but haven't really seen any solid evidence that has much effect on the short term action. A small float and large insider/instituational holders would certainly imply a high risk for a large spike on a supply/demand imbalance if no supply is sold by the big holders.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 18, 2007 7:02 PM) : 

CWTR is down 21% Has anyone ever done the reverse with the cramer effect? Is it worth trying? Probably safer than shorting anyway.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 18, 2007 7:10 PM) : 

Well, no looking back now. Bought 500 of cwtr @ 18.5 I'm crossing my fingers.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 18, 2007 7:18 PM) : 

I think it will take a few days to hit bottom (cwtr).

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (January 18, 2007 7:39 PM) : 

The reverse Cramer can work on a sell recommendation...I've never really seen a sell recommendation ontop of bad news though. Thats one big drop though!

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 18, 2007 9:44 PM) : 

In it for 750 shares now.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 18, 2007 11:12 PM) : 

Jason, we call that catching a falling knife. You may get it or you may get hurt. My experience is that there may be two days of small/flat drops untill the full effect of the news is gone. After that the market determins where it will go...the market looks like its going bad. If you have other reasons for buying then ok, but if its trying to catch the knive its 50/50....just my two cents...

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (January 18, 2007 11:35 PM) : 

Maybe options expiration will have a factor on the price...right now at around $18.50 it is in the middle of the $17.50 and $20 strikes......It did bounce off $17.70 after hours already. A 10 cent guide down is pretty significant though when the estimate was $0.26..thats a 38% miss.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 19, 2007 8:20 AM) : 

I've seen a lot worse misses that have not had the same effect on a particular stock. ID missed the last quarter by 2600% and had very little effect compared to CWTR. Does a 38% miss necessarily warrant a 21% drop?

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (January 19, 2007 8:24 AM) : 

It does seem a 21% drop is a bit overdone. I think one of the issues here is that Cramer has been pumping it for a while...so there are a lot of weak/Cramer hands in the stocks and they are panicing and probably making things worse. I'd bet you get a small bounce today of a few percent.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 19, 2007 8:26 AM) : 

Covered cwtr pm @18.51 from 19.75. Jason my thinking is cwtr is a growth stock that did not grow this quarter. As a growth stock it has a higher multiple. I believe the multiple will be slashed until they can show they can grow earnings again.I was going to short any stock that was tanking last night as I noticed over the past few days they fell more the following day - the market is turning south be carefull! Good luck on your trade.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 19, 2007 8:36 AM) : 

The reason I covered the stock is it has alot of shorts and sometimes you do get a kind of reverse effect buy the news (bad news) instead of longs that sell the news(good news). Tracker is correct at some point today you may get your bounce.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 19, 2007 1:43 PM) : 

Made 1.05 on 750 of CWTR. Not bad I guess.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 19, 2007 2:28 PM) : 

Nice trade !

 

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