June 20th - TGI HEI MOG-A HLT
Cramer's first picks were TGI Triumph Group Inc. , HEI HEICO Corp. , and MOG-A Moog Inc. as plays on aerospace.
TGI is a bit to expensive so I will only look at HEI and MOG
Update: Check out the comments for this post to see some information and ideas on TGI.
HEI
Closing Price: $28.85
After Hours High: $29.41
Percent Increase at High: 1.9%
Price Level Off Point: $29.39
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 1.9%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Industrial Goods
Short %: N/A
Days to Cover: 35.3
MOG-A
Closing Price: $33.63
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Industrial Goods
I'm having a hard time finding after hours info on MOG-A. It trades at pretty low average daily volume (153,000 shares). This is the first pick in a while with this little volume. This has the potential for a big unpredictable spike. I will have to check some other delayed sources to see if there is any after hours price movement. It's possible that if no MOG-A owners are watching Cramer and there were no sell orders sitting and waiting that this may not trade at all tonight. HEI only has a few trades after hours for a very small price increase. Industrial goods aren't great for shorting as per my analysis chart, averaging only a 3.2% drop from highs compared to other sectors that are in the 5% drop levels. If this even goes near $30 near the bell then watch out for any big block trades that could signal a downturn, like CAL today. I also don't know why shortsqueeze.com sometimes doesn't have the short % but has the number of days to cover. In this case the average daily volume is very low, even lower than MOG-A so that could explain the number of days to cover.
Cramer's second pick tonight was HLT Hilton Hotels Corp.
Closing Price: $26.72
After Hours High: $27.23
Percent Increase at High: 1.9%
Price Level Off Point: $27.00
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 1.0%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Services
Short %: 1.7
Days to Cover: 2.2
HLT is barely trading above its high for the day putting it very close to the ANGO no-short rule but not quite. Much like industrial goods, the services sector hasn't been the best for shorting, having the worst % drop on average of all the sectors in my chart with only a 2.8% drop from highs. Since this is only up around 1% tonight this would have to go in the red tomorrow to even reach the average drop. Another NYSE stock so keep an eye out for some big block trades to get an idea of any changes in price direction. If this goes back to the after hours high in the morning then it could have a good dip back down to the low $27 level for a good cover point. If it opens below $27 then there might not be enough of a spike to bother with.
Cramer's last picks were GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc. LEH Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and BSC Bear Stearns Companies Inc. and are all far too big and expensive to think about shorting here.
posted by CramerTracker @ 6/20/2006
10 comments
Comments on "June 20th - TGI HEI MOG-A HLT"
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Anonymous said ... (June 20, 2006 8:13 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (June 20, 2006 8:17 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (June 20, 2006 8:28 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (June 20, 2006 8:31 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (June 20, 2006 8:33 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (June 20, 2006 8:34 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (June 20, 2006 8:50 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (June 20, 2006 11:59 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (June 21, 2006 10:26 AM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (June 21, 2006 12:14 PM) :
post a commentThere are certain stocks that do not participate in extended hours trading.
Here is the short data for MOG-A
Average Volume (3 month)3: 153,483
Average Volume (10 day)3: 241,457
Shares Outstanding: 41.71M
Float: 34.75M
% Held by Insiders4: N/A
% Held by Institutions4: N/A
Shares Short (as of 10-May-06)3: 1.26M
Short Ratio (as of 10-May-06)3: 9.2
Short % of Float (as of 10-May-06)3: 3.50%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 985.73K
No No. Go back and look at TGI.
The volume after the bell was 11,900 and the normal average volume during the day is 120,000. That was good volume after the bell.
91.4% of the float is owned by institutions, so only 9% of the float will be fought over in tommorrows trading. Only 1.6 million shares are in the hands of individual investors. Over 1 million people watch Cramers show each night. This thing swings wildly during the day too.
There are 585,000 shares short.
Here is what will go down with it tommorrow. Everyone is going to be shorting at the open. There will only be 1.6 million shares available. Assuming brokerages cannot borrow the insitutions shares, they will have to do one of two things: 1) naked short or 2) buy shares from the market in order to lend the shares out.
I think we will see a huge gap up and it will just keep going from there. Everyone will be shorting at the open. When they figure out it will just run, then they will be buying to cover further shooting the price up.
This will be dangerous to short, but maybe a good buy right in the morning.
Correction, only 5 percent of the total float is available to the public. I did not include insider holdings as well.
Thanks for the info. The stock code is a bit of a pain. Different sites use MOG-A, MOGA, and MOG.A.
Is there some reference to show which stocks don't participate in after hours?
And there was some short info available on shortsqueeze.com but it didn't look complete and it didn't find the name of the company so I don't trust it is for the right company since it only accepted MOG.A and not MOG-A.
The reason why Cramer plugged TGI is because the CEO is on the board of directors for ARG. ARG has been plugged on Mad Money 3 times before. The CEO is the top shareholder for TGI.
Thanks for the heads up on TGI. I chose to skip over it since it is above $40 and stocks that high don't normally interest me and haven't performed that well in the past.
Does Mad Money really get 1 million viewers a night?? The last time I heard how many viewers he had was after his first live auidence show (a long time ago) and I think he had a quarter million for that with an average of only just under two hundred thousand. He has received a lot of exposure since then on talk shows etc, so I guess I'm not surprised.
Back on TGI, it did trade upwards of $53 early in May, so depending on when the existing shorts shorted they may not be in a huge panic to cover in the morning. But anyone that has bought recently and caught the downward slide from the $50 range may look to exit on any spike that may happen. I'm not sure we will see a huge flood of people buying (from the shorts) tomorrow morning just based on recent Cramer picks. I would watch for any big block trades in the pre-market though. If one shows up pre-market below the other prices then this very easily could have that big spike and then who knows what might happen. Should be fun to watch tomorrow, but it will only be from the sidelines for me.
Here is my take on this. I believe HEI will be the good short pick. It appears similiar to TGI except that HEI has more float. I would bank on HEI as a good short pick. I believe TGI is going to surge.
MOG-A is an unknown. It doesnt trade after hours. So we have to cross off the unknown.
Hilton is not a typical Cramer play. 3-4 million average volume, big name. Cross that off the list.
HEI and TGI have low average volume. I would go with those two
I should have bought TGI at the open. However, the volume today looks way too thin.
It looks like both TGI and HEI spiked up a little, but in thin volume. I dont like trading with such low volume. I would have preferred at least 100k traded by 10, but its not even at half that now.
Yeah, the volume today is low which is suprising with the price jump. If this is the Cramer effect then the volume should be higher. I assume there just aren't many sellers and the institional holders must be holding as well, and those that are selling are keeping their ask price high and making the buyers chase it upwards. Hard one to figure today. Up market, low volume picks, low floats....makes for some upredictable action.