June 19th - CAL MA VZ URBN
Let me start out by saying that I am just getting my feet wet with RSS feeds. I see some people have subscribed so that's nice to see. If there is anything I can do to make the feeds better let me know and I will try to figure it out. Also, I have added a new blog to my series http://dykstraoptionspicks.blogspot.com/ where I take a look at Lenny Dykstra option picking track record...and let me just say he is pretty darn good.
Cramer's first pick tonight was CAL Continental Airlines Inc.
Closing Price: $26.90
After Hours High: $27.60
Percent Increase at High: 2.6%
Price Level Off Point: $27.21
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 1.2%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Services - Major Airline
Short %: 17.6%
Days to Cover: 3.3
Relatively large short percentage but large daily volume brings down the days to cover to only 3.3, so nothing too scary there. As I have mentioned several times, the services sector hasn't had a great track record for shorting and the after hours increase is pretty tame. An up day in oil tomorrow would most likely bring this down, but the merger news, and the fact it was up today in a down market is a bit worrisome. I still think this comes down off a 9:30am-ish spike tomorrow, but after that the market and oil prices will take over the price action.
Cramer's second segment featured The Good - MA MASTERCARD INC and The Bad VZ VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP. VZ has only had 3 up days since it came public but is already down 50%. Shorting is an option here, but not something I would consider doing since that really isn't something Cramer has "uncovered". I think everyone knows that VZ has not done well and shorting now seems a bit late. MA has only had 6 up days itself since it came public, but has gone from I believe an IPO price of $38 or $39 to a high of $49.15. It closed today at $44.34 (down $0.68). It has some after hours price action taking it to $44.73 which is only a 0.87% gain which is not enough to consider a short. The legal woes may put a cap on this stock, but due to the higher price and high average volume (5.7 million) I don't see any potential here.
Finally, Cramer had another Sell Pick in URBN Urban Outfitters Inc. As with his other sell picks I have stayed away from shorting them since its really not the same game. As I mentioned in a comment in reply to someone "Shorting a sell pick is like buying a pick because he says buy I figure? So when Cramer says buy I short, so my first thought when he says sell isn't to sell, but maybe it should be." Who would be buying in the after hours and pre-market if they watched Mad Money? I'm sure shorting a sell pick has worked well recently since most stocks are down, but I don't think it works just because Cramer says sell. The market will take over at 9:30am without much Cramer effect so I don't feel any edge is gained.
posted by CramerTracker @ 6/19/2006
8 comments
Comments on "June 19th - CAL MA VZ URBN"
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Anonymous said ... (June 20, 2006 1:35 AM) :
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Anonymous said ... (June 20, 2006 6:30 AM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (June 20, 2006 8:16 AM) :
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Anonymous said ... (June 20, 2006 9:42 AM) :
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Anonymous said ... (June 20, 2006 10:04 AM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (June 20, 2006 11:34 AM) :
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Anonymous said ... (June 20, 2006 12:27 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (June 20, 2006 4:57 PM) :
post a commentExcellent analysis as usual. If Cramer keeps up this lame pace, maybe you can take a little vacation, hehe :) Thanks for all your insights.
My theory is that high volume Cramer picks dont have the same punch. I like it when Cramer recommends some little known company with sub-million volume. Continental has 4 million shares traded daily, mastercard a few million, urban outfitters same.
Im going to look very carefully at what happens to these super volume stocks to see if Cramer had any effect.
Thanks for the posts.
The pace has gotten a little slow with Cramer these days, but he seemed in better spirits last night. Either he thinks the market is near a bottom or his producer told him to say away from the gloom and doom scenarios due to a ratings slip maybe??
And very true on the larger volume picks having less Cramer effect. I think you can pretty much guaruntee that the effect is over in the first minute of trading with a bit of a spike and then back down when the market floods with more supply. I would make a guess that the volume today for his picks will be very close, if not less than usual average volume....which is not usually the case for his smaller volume picks.
Look at Urban. Everyone sold too much during afterhours and so the price spiked nearly 50 cents when it opened.
The reverse Cramer.
I dont think the rest of this month will be good for Cramer trading. We need to get past the FOMC meeting. I dont think Bernanke will overshoot. No one wants to see another 2000-2001 again.
We just need to get past the meeting and then we can resume our Cramer trading once more.
Nice on Urban. Goes very well with my theory to not short Cramer's sell picks as I mentioned in my post. If we short his buy picks, why short his sell picks too? The market is up today so the buyers of Urban must not watch Mad Money....either that or they just don't agree with Cramer that it is a sell.
And I agree the FOMC should make or break the market and in turn Cramer's effectivness. My guess would be 1 more rate hike so Bernanke doesn't look like a chicken, and maybe some indication of a holding pattern which would help the market a bit. Just a guess though.
RSS feeds and subscription? I don't recall reading anything in your blog prior to this post on RSS feeds.
I went to Feedburner and set something up there just this weekend, and added those icons at the top of the screen to make it easier for people to connect to the feeds. Just from this weekend my stats on Feedburner say some people have "subscribed" to my feed. I am very new to the subject, but its just a way for people to get the content from my blog set up on other sources like "My Yahoo" and other feed readers and in some cases it will alert them (I think) when new posts are made, or how old a new post is. Its all free, as far as I know. I see a lot of other blogs with reference to them so I thought I would try it out.