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Thursday, June 15, 2006

June 15th - NUE FCX RAH PRGO DLTR

Cramer's first two picks were NUE Nucor Corp. and FCX Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.

These are both Basic Material commodity stocks, both are pretty expensive, $52 and $50 respectively, and both have a special dividend coming out according to Cramer. I don't think I really need to go beyond that to know that these aren't shorting opportunities I would pursue. I would point out however the last time Cramer was big on a special dividend with AMTD TD Ameritrade, saying that after the dividend was paid and the stock price came down the dividend amount that it would shoot back up, he wasn't exactly right. The stock did go down even further, did rebound but never really had any great run. Now that was a $6 dividend which I don't think is the case here.

NUE
Close: $50.94
After Hours Price: $52.05

FCX
Close: $49.04
After Hours Price: $50.09

Cramer's next picks were RAH Ralcorp Holdings Inc. , PRGO Perrigo Co. , and DLTR Dollar Tree Stores Inc. as plays on people going to cheaper alternatives for food and necessities.

RAH
Closing Price: $40.71
No Trades After Hours
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Consumer Goods
Short %: 8.0%
Days to Cover: 11.6

PRGO
Closing Price: $16.84
After Hours High: $17.45
Percent Increase at High: 3.6%
Price Level Off Point: $17.18
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 2.0%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Healthcare
Short %: 9.2%
Days to Cover: 13.8

DLTR
Closing Price: $25.88
Only Trade: $26.44
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Services
Short %: 5.4%
Days to Cover: 6.3

Once again some very boring defensive plays that people don't appear to like given the lack of after hours trades. My TV reception for CNBC the last 2 days has been terrible. I wonder if I'm not alone and people aren't able to watch? Anyway, it looks like we have some very optimistic investors these days watching Cramer who aren't expecting the market to keep going down. To be honest, even if people did think the market was going to continue downward I'm not sure they would want to buy these picks anyway. A dollar store?? Aren't the margins pretty limited in a dollar store? With some more volume and a good size price spike tomorrow morning on PRGO and DLTR there might be an opportunity to short. Both were up today, but nothing huge on a big up day. I don't think we have had 3 up days in a row for a while, so tomorrow could be a telling sign if this market is actually trying to turn around. So I guess what I am trying to say is that the market sentiment could trump the Cramer effect on an up day, and bring things down hard on a bad.

Cramer's third segment highlighted NBR Nabors Industries Ltd. and AMGN Amgen Inc. who issued convertible bonds which causes heavy short selling by the buyers of these convertible bonds which causes the prices of the stocks to go down. This segment was more of a heads-up to sell shares of companies that do these sort of things to avoid the selling pressure and buy back once it is over and done with, so not an opportunity to short here (not to mention I wouldn't want to short these big names anyway).

Comments on "June 15th - NUE FCX RAH PRGO DLTR"

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (June 15, 2006 6:34 PM) : 

Both of these would be no good with the "Cramer Effect". They both had 6-7 million in volume today. There is nothing that Cramers Army can do to put a dent in them. As well, they are way too expensive.

I think they have a fair chance of going up tommorrow (remember triple witching), but not because of Cramer. There is a 50-50 shot of the market being up/down on Friday.

Remember what Cramer said about margin? He brought up a good point. Increasing margin interest means bull market, decreasing means bear.

http://www.nyse.com/pdfs/margin.pdf

Check out my blogspot at:

www.cramerwatch.blogspot.com

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (June 18, 2006 11:13 PM) : 

Very possible that I missed SYMC. I think that was one of the nights my reception was terrible and I didn't quite catch everything. Although I don't doubt the opportunity to short the picks in that segment, I have been avoiding "sell picks" since it is a different game I feel. I would be afraid that I would chase it down. Shorting a sell pick is like buying a pick because he says buy I figure? So when Cramer says buy I short, so my first thought when he says sell isn't to sell, but maybe it should be :)

Thanks for the comment.

 

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