June 13th - CRZO RDA AAPL CEO SGP
Cramer's first segment featured Natural Gas, namely CRZO Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc.
Closing Price: $26.56
After Hours High: $27.70
Percent Increase at High: 4.3%
Price Level Off Point: $27.44
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 3.3%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Basic Materials
Short %: N/A
Days to Cover: 8.6
As per my rules, I don't go against commodities as the underlying prices will mostly likely influence the stock price more than the Cramer effect. An up day in gas prices will surely raise this stock price so one can't be sure a Cramer effect peak and drop will take place. Not to mention I am long some natural gas in my longer term portfolio. Ironically, this is an ANGO no-short situation as well...and like I pointed out in a previous post today this falls under the situation where the stock was down for the better part of the day. Not a great stock to start my more in-depth research into my ANGO rule since it is a commodity play but I will take a look.
Cramer's next "Bottom" play was RDA Reader's Digest Association Inc.
Closing Price: $13.16
After Hours High: $13.45
Percent Increase at High: 2.2%
Price Level Off Point: $13.43
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 2.1%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Services
Short %: 10.4%
Days to Cover: 15.7
Pretty big short percentage and days to cover, but I really don't see this going up very high tomorrow morning to force anyone to cover. Very light trading after hours for a Cramer pick. We also have another ANGO no-short situation since the high for the day was $13.55 and we are below that level now. This will be a better chance to start my research into my ANGO rule than CRZO since RDA hit the $13.55 high early in today's session and dropped steadily from there. As a commenter stated...I should not even consider changing my rules and I am not about to, but I will look to see what happens in my ANGO no-short situation when the stock was down big during the day vs. being up but off its high for the day.
Cramer's next picks were AAPL Apple Computer Inc., CEO CNOOC Ltd., SGP Schering-Plough Corp. due to their large (but not too large) cash positions.
So, I'm not about to short AAPL. Heck I even mention that as an example in My Shorting Rules as being too big of a company for Cramer to influence enough. CEO is an oil play, and even though oil was down today (although I, like Cramer, don't see it going to $30!) I wouldn't touch it with a short. And finally SGP, Cramer mentioned last Friday and it only went up .20-cents from its close, but did close in the red. SGP has no trades after hours so far either.
posted by CramerTracker @ 6/13/2006
4 comments
Comments on "June 13th - CRZO RDA AAPL CEO SGP"
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Anonymous said ... (June 13, 2006 7:40 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (June 13, 2006 7:58 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (June 13, 2006 10:57 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (June 13, 2006 11:04 PM) :
post a commentI like to style my Cramer plays with an action plan. Somewhat like a football play or a military operational plan.
http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2006/month/06/day/07/daily/index.html
I see the oil inventory report, PPI and the beige book. This will be a key day for the market.
Here is what I would do for the oil play:
- Start listening to CNBC at 8am. What are they saying about oil?
- Look at Bloomberg commodity section for energy prices.
- What is gold doing? Gold and oil usually go up and down together.
- Keep the VIX on your trade station open and displayed. The higher the VIX, the better environment for shorting. You can learn about the VIX on investopedia.com.
- The Consumer price index will come out at 8:30AM. Monitor how this effects oil and gold prices. What are they saying on CNBC about it?
- Constantly monitor Marketwatch News and all other news networks. Any news that will effect oil. Look at news specific to the company.
- 9:30 Market opens. Watch for the spike down on a candlestick chart. Look for capitulation
- 9:40-10:00 Cramer spike. Spike will resemble a straight up green candle. These are people buying on market orders.
- Short when you start seeing red candles going down.
- 10:30 - Be careful. Oil inventory report will either be negative or positive. I believe it will be negative for oil prices.
- Monitor trade on candlestick chart. Cover if you see capitulation indicating upward trend.
List of events for Weds:
-8:30am- CPI. A third straight 0.3 percent rise in the core CPI would cinch expectations for a month-end rate hike. Financial markets could get a small jolt
-10:30am- Petroleum Report - This will move gas and oil prices.
-2:00pm- Beige book. This book is used by the Fed at the FOMC meeting. The information in this book will give us an idea at what the Fed might do in the future.
People who are speaking-
1:30 AM ET : Federal Reserve Governor Susan Schmidt Bies to speak about real estate at the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Half Moon Bay, California. Audience Q&A expected.
1:00 PM ET : Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher to speak about the U.S. economy, at a luncheon in Corpus Christi, Texas.
The oil company is priced as growth play. If the market believes there will be no growth, then the stock will come down.
We cannot be sure if the market is oversold or undersold at this time.
Before making a play tommorrow, carefully think about the following events and how they might effect the trade.
Honestly, since there are so many factors that could throw the market to and fro, I would probably not trade the effect tommorrow.
Thanks for some excellent insight obviously from someone who has been doing this for a while. I think some of Cramer's small picks don't get influenced as much by economic data until the Cramer Effect buying ends after the first half hour of trading give or take, since a lot of those picks have such a small average volume. The candlestick chart as well as technical analysis in general is something I am really trying to focus on now and I will certainly take a look at VIX you mentioned.
Thanks agian. I will certainly keep these points in mind in the future.
Seems like Cramer is playing it safe and not highlighting spec trades, maybe trying to protect his flock. LOL.
Your analysis is thorough and greatly appreciated...awesome job!
He is playing it pretty safe for sure, but does throw the shorts a bone or two of late. Calling the bottom of WCI and seeing it go down nearly $1 today for example. I think he must be struggling about what to do with this down market. Go off the air and risk loosing his spotlight until the market turns around? Show repeat shows and have people not watch or bid up old picks? Stop making picks and again people will stop watching....Tough place to be in I would think these days!
Thanks for the comment!