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Monday, May 01, 2006

May 1st - MGPI UNP

Cramer is talking about Ethanol again. His first pick was MGPI MGP Ingredients Inc.

Closing Price: $25.90
After Hours High: $27.88
Percent Increase at High: 7.6%
Price Level Off Point: $27.26
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 5.3%

Cramer's other 2 recent Ethanol picks were AG and GEHL. AG fell right from the pre-market open, while GEHL went lower in the pre-market before spiking at the opening bell and then coming down nicely. The problem here? What might MGPI do? Will it fall right at the open or will it have a spike at the opening bell?
Focusing more on MGPI, it was up $1.34 today (5.5%). Also, the after hours movement tonight has pushed it to a new 52-week high. After today, with his 2 picks from Friday which also hit 52-week highs and both were tough shorts, I am going to wait until about 10:30 too see if it peaks there, since that's what happened today with WST and TLK. This one is definitely not my favorite to short with all the momentum in Ethanol. It will come down at some point tomorrow since it is up so much, but I think it will be hard to time the top.

Cramer's second pick was UNP Union Pacific Corp.

Closing Price: $92.31
After Hours High: $93.20
Percent Increase at High: 1.0%
Price Level Off Point: $93.05
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 0.8%

If you look at previous Cramer picks (see the recent analysis link on the right side), the expensive stocks don't make for great shorts. They really don't go up a lot (as you can see from above) because they are just so expensive. Its amazing how people will pay up $1.00 in some cases for a $5 stock and only pay up .75 cents for a $90 stock. The lack of demand and probably money is most likely the case.

Cramer's third pick was ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Co
This is not a new pick for Cramer. ADM reports tomorrow morning, and Cramer said they will report well but go down to create a good buying entry point. This one is actually down a bit after hours after being up $1.66 today. In my opinion, this would not be a good short. Yes, good stocks that have reported good earnings have gone down recently, but why run this risk of ADM bucking that trend?

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