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Wednesday, April 05, 2006

TOMO update final

My final analysis on TOMO is this. Like most Cramer picks with no supporting news, this one came down a lot from its highs for the day. The one difference with TOMO today was that the surge lasted a little longer than normal. The only thing I can attribute to this would be that the pick was a Chinese Internet play which people seem to like and bid up a lot. The other thing might be the short interest in the stock before today. I'm sure there was some panic cover buying that may have helped the surge last longer, but by no means a big multi-day short squeeze since the price started declining after half a day. I think the simple and smart thing to do would be to avoid Chinese Tech plays for now. So today really came down to timing. I certainly was left with my pants down had my short gone through even though I could have got out with at least a break-even but I probably would have been a wreck all day :) As of typing this, the stock hit its daily low at $27.74.

Of note, I think the selling increases in early afternoon when people see the price declining and figure it best to get out, thus accelerating the decline. The only thing that stops the decline is people that maybe waited to get in and see the decline as a good place to get in, or people averaging down if they have any money left!

Final low for the day: $27.70.

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