January 8th - GILD TMO OPTM
Cramer started out trying to predict the big news from the JP Morgan biotech conference starting this week. His favorite right now is Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
Closing Price: $64.23
After Hours High: $65.70
Percent Increase at High: 2.3%
After Hours Most Recent: $65.40
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.8%
Sector: Healthcare
Days to Cover: 2.8
Short %: 2.29 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.47 %
% Held by Institutions: 93.20 %
50 Day Moving Average: $66.63
200 Day Moving Average: $62.48
Too expensive for my strategy, but a decent price increase for an "expensive" stock. A new year could be bringing in new buyers who are just tuning into Cramer and bidding up his picks? Could be a good sign of things to come in the near future, or maybe just a fluke.
Cramer's second biotech recommendation was Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. (TMO)
Closing Price: $44.93
After Hours High: $45.80
Percent Increase at High: 1.9%
After Hours Most Recent: $45.70
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 1.7%
Sector: Conglomerates
Days to Cover: 4.7
Short %: 3.69 %
% Held by Insiders: 1.18 %
% Held by Institutions: 36.80 %
50 Day Moving Average: $44.38
200 Day Moving Average: $39.34
Again, to expensive for me, and a similar percentage increase for a stock of this price, but Cramer had a few interesting things to say. He said to buy around 10 tomorrow...which just happens to be around the time when the bottom is normally seen (closer to 10:15 if you ask me) after the morning price spike. He also pointed out his show is only being aired twice daily now instead of 3 times. Is this going to hurt his ratings? Is this going to hurt the movement of the stocks he recommends? With TiVo and dvr's I'm sure all the people that look to Cramer for stock picks will find a way to get his picks and bid them up nicely.
Finally Cramer looked at a recent 2006 IPO stock and said Optium Corporation (OPTM) was overlooked and is a good speculative stock.
Closing Price: $23.49
After Hours High: $25.39
Percent Increase at High: 8.1%
After Hours Most Recent: $25.13
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 7.0%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 0.9
Short %: 3.38 %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %
Low volume stock here that trades around 300,000 shares a day (but only just over 100,000 today). Cramer said his one has been overlooked, even though it is currently trading above the price it traded at on its first day of trading back in October. Since Cramer compared this to DIVX (and warned not to bid it up like DIVX, which went on deaf ears apparently) this one has gone up considerably after hours. If this is anything like DIVX it would make it a bad pick for shorting as the stock went higher the next day then the after hours the night before and showed no significant drop. If the stock trades in the pre-market above tonight's price high of $25.39 that would be a warning sign for me to not short. I would also wait for a bit after the bell to see what direction it may take, but that wait may reduce any good chance for shorting down to zero.
posted by CramerTracker @ 1/08/2007
11 comments
Comments on "January 8th - GILD TMO OPTM"
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Anonymous said ... (January 08, 2007 6:13 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (January 08, 2007 6:33 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (January 08, 2007 6:36 PM) :
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Unknown said ... (January 08, 2007 6:51 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (January 08, 2007 7:17 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (January 08, 2007 11:11 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (January 08, 2007 11:34 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (January 09, 2007 9:27 AM) :
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Unknown said ... (January 09, 2007 3:43 PM) :
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Unknown said ... (January 09, 2007 3:47 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (January 09, 2007 4:28 PM) :
post a commentPut two orders from different accounts for 65.50 on got filled. Looks good so far.
I hope he is not going down the drain yet...I need him to stay on the air...lol.
Nice short. The high of 65.70 (that I saw) was very brief. And I don't think the show is in any trouble. I'm sure its still the highest rated show on the network. I have a feeling they are just freeing up some space to include more shows of Fast Money (5 days a week maybe?)
I was long on OPTM for so long and it did nothing...I even emailed cramer about it...lol...now that I dont own it he recomends it and I get short on it...what a change of situation. I screwed up on this one though I got one order in at 25...way to low...I got one more at 25.30 so Im average 25.15...I'll be happy to break even or make a quarter on this in the morining. What do you think optm will do?
Hard to say on OPTM. I think worst case scenario is a high of $26 if this takes off like DIVX. Other stocks compared to DIVX like RVBD didn't go up so insanly right away (even though it went up a lot over a few weeks). Like I said in my post for the first segment, there does seem to be some renewed enthusiasum for Cramer's picks right now too. OPTM was down rather big today on an up day for the market overall so there will likely be a far share of sellers selling into the spike. As long as it doesn't spike higher than tonight's after hours price I'm sure it will come down to $25 at least.
So do you think it is best to cover at 10:15 or to wait for a 1% gain or whichever comes first?
Personally I think its best to take the gains when you have them. I like to have a number in my head (like 10, 20 or 30 cents) that I expect the stock to go down and set my cover price early. The cheaper the stock, the less you need it to go down. This is a safer approach and you may miss out on more gains, but you lessen your risk of the stock bottoming and flying back upwards. I said 10:15 as a fequent "bottom time" because it is a time I notice a lot, but I also see 9:45 sometimes too. You can also use some stop loss stratigies (after you are sitting on a gain) to try to secure some gains but those aren't fool proof either if the stock moves suddenly upwards. Green alien who has been commenting lately is trying out a "time strategy" so it will be interesting to hear how well that works out. I haven't really seen a consistent time strategy to be honest. The closest would be that a lot of highs during regular 9:30 to 4:00 trading are right at 9:30.
I'm thinking if you don't hit your price by 10:15 just cover..
OPTM and TMO did not act the way I thought. I covered my GUID short right away which was a nice 50cent gain but OPTM and TMO shot up. I covered pretty quickly then saw them both hitting a top and reshorted...while they did go down from there I covered to soon and ended in a net negative from the days shorts...I knew OPTM would not take home a 13% gain...just did not have the guts to hold the short to see. Do you think this action was the exeption to the rule or have you seen this happen a lot?
correction, I ment GILD in my last post
TMO, although I didn't really get into any details because it was too expensive for my style I think was more news driven. Cramer said there was the big biotech conference and that TMO would be presenting today so the big price gain was likely due to that. I think its a good idea to stay away from "news driven picks". So if Cramer says they are reporting tomorrow or he "expects" something to happen any day now, its a good idea not to short. As for OPTM, Cramer made the comparison to DIVX which went up a lot. That right there is a red flag not to short. Also any stock from Know Your IPO that IPO'd already (so not upcoming IPOs) seem to get a lot of attention. If it is a smaller IPO that doesn't make the headlines, and there isn't a lot of analyst coverage or volume, the people who buy off Cramer's recommendation can probably influence the price more then other picks (just a theory). In my daily posts, I try to eliminate the "exceptions to the rule" as you put it because there are warning signs that I see based on previous picks and subsequent stock movement that scare me away.