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Wednesday, January 03, 2007

January 3rd - Value picks for the year - HAL GS MO

Cramer started out 2007 with his predictions for year. He said he believes the DOW will but up 17th by the end of '07. Instead of giving just 1 stock of the year, Cramer decided to give picks for different investing styles. Tonight's show are his 3 value picks of the year, the first (which is his thrid favorite) being Halliburton Co. (HAL)

Closing Price: $29.87
After Hours High: $30.60
Percent Increase: 2.4%
After Hours Most Recent: $30.39
Percent Increase: 1.7%
Sector: Basic Materials
Days to Cover: 3.4
Short %: 4.42 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.26 %
% Held by Institutions: 83.70 %
50 Day Moving Average: $32.11
200 Day Moving Average: $33.97
Average Price Drop for Sector: 5.5%

HAL is still red for the day even with the after hours action. Either HAL is just not a popular pick or people don't like the idea of value picks because they aren't sexy enough. Regardless, not something I would consider shorting even if the after hours price spike much more then it has due to the links to oil. The OIH was down big today on top of NBR warning of a bad quarter which brought down the sector. A rebound from those tomorrow could propel the sector and HAL along with it, which is the reason I stay away from shorting oil/gas stocks.

The second favorite value pick for 2007 is Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) which closed today at $200.72. Its a new year, but my old rules are still intact and shorting a stock of this price isn't a great idea in my opinion because the percentages are too small and the amount of capital required to hold the short (even if it is only for a few mintues or hours). So, we are 2 for 2 with picks that Cramer owns for his charitable trust, so is the final #1 pick in his list too? Also, just a heads up for people that don't watch the show. Cramer has hinted in previous weeks that LVLT may be one of his speculative picks for 2007. I assume he will be doing his speculative picks of the year on Friday (since he mentioned value, growth and speculative, in that order). Certainly not a guaruntee that I am offering, but I'm sure other people are drawing the same conclusion as I am as there is some after hour trading in LVLT already tonight but the stock isn't up much.

Finally, Cramer's #1 value play was Altria Group Inc. (MO), and although I wasn't looking when he mentioned it, I'm sure he owns it for his charitable trust (or at least he used to). He says it could go up $30 when they finally break up the stock into 3 seperate ones. The stock closed today at $86.52, so once again to expensive to play the short of the Cramer recommendation.

So aside from LVLT, I am trying to think of some other picks Cramer may make for his top 3 Growth and top 3 Speculative plays. GOOG certainly comes to mind for growth, but I don't think Cramer can move it that much.

Comments on "January 3rd - Value picks for the year - HAL GS MO"

 

Blogger Unknown said ... (January 03, 2007 7:20 PM) : 

I shorted MO in afterhours. One order at 87.70 and a second order at 87.60. We will see if I can get 1 point out of this before I cover tommorow morning.

Eric

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (January 03, 2007 7:31 PM) : 

Well you are off to a good start so good luck with it. A $1 gain would wipe out practically all of the Cramer spike which would mean (in my humble opinion) that other market factors would have to take over to bring it down, such as tomorrows reaction to today's fed minutes that took the market down later in the day, even though MO was in the green at the end of the day. I would watch for $87.00 as it could trade around that.

 

Blogger Unknown said ... (January 03, 2007 10:37 PM) : 

Thanks, good point I will watch for 87 tommorow. I'll want to lock in there if things look iffy. Im trying to confirm the hypothisis that the 3rd minute after Cramer mentions the stock is the best time to short, worked today, we shall see. Im moving my own blog to this site since it has a better URL

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (January 04, 2007 10:03 AM) : 

I covered at 87. I feel like you where right, MO wanted to bounch off of 87. Unless the economic reports make the market go down that may have been the safest place to sell.

 

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