December 22nd - USB ABG NCC UNTD APKT
Cramer's started out recommending some dividend stocks and they were:
US Bancorp. (USB)
Closing Price: $36.65
After Hours Price: $36.75
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.2%
Sector: Financial
Days to Cover: 4.8
Short %: 1.26 %
% Held by Insiders: 0.26 %
% Held by Institutions: 59.10 %
50 Day Moving Average: $33.90
200 Day Moving Average: $32.12
Average Price Drop for Sector: 3.4%
Asbury Automotive Group Inc. (ABG)
Closing Price: $23.70
No Price Increase After Hours
Sector: Services
Days to Cover: 2.2
Short %: 3.25 %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $23.68
200 Day Moving Average: $21.02
Average Price Drop for Sector: 2.8%
National City Corp. (NCC)
Closing Price: $36.76
After Hours Price: $36.78
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 0.0%
Sector: Financial
Days to Cover: 6.8
Short %: 2.45 %
% Held by Insiders: 1.85 %
% Held by Institutions: 53.70 %
50 Day Moving Average: $36.63
200 Day Moving Average: $36.20
Average Price Drop for Sector: 3.4%
United Online Inc. (UNTD)
Closing Price: $13.23
After Hours Price: $13.65
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 3.2%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 10.6
Short %: 9.07 %
% Held by Insiders: 7.30 %
% Held by Institutions: %
50 Day Moving Average: $13.37
200 Day Moving Average: $12.21
Average Price Drop for Sector: 4.3%
A few things to note that didn't really come as a surprise. These "boring" dividend stocks did not see much of a spike after hours, but the holiday weekend may also have something to do with that. And not surprisingly the cheapest stock is the only one that really had any sort of price increase, and a modest one at that. Considering the next trading day isn't until after Christmas I assume any hype (which appears to be almost none) will be all but gone come Monday so I don't see anything worth shorting here.
Finally, Cramer followed up on his promise from weeks ago to discuss Acme Packet, Inc. (APKT) (someone called about it in the lightening round and he said he would do a segment on it....people bought, the stock went up and he didn't mention it...until now). This was part of his "hot stocks" series and he said the stock hasn't really taken off yet and it is a good buy.
Closing Price: $18.21
After Hours High: $19.25
Percent Increase at High: 5.7%
After Hours Most Recent: $19.00
Percent Increase at Most Recent Price: 4.3%
Sector: Technology
Days to Cover: 0.5
Short %: %
% Held by Insiders: %
% Held by Institutions: %
IPO share lockup doens't expire until April so that shouldn't put downward pressure on the stock for a few months. I'm a little curious to see how this one might react if there are any holders still from when Cramer said he would mention it and may sell into this pop. Again, not sure if the long weekend will cool this off for next week, and this stock sort of goes together with DIVX and RVBD when Cramer first mentioned them, and both of those stocks have done very well. So I'm not totally exicted about the shorting prospects here, but will be worth a look if the stock doesn't go well above $19 in the pre-market or within the first 15 minutes of regular hours trading.
posted by CramerTracker @ 12/22/2006
8 comments
Comments on "December 22nd - USB ABG NCC UNTD APKT"
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Anonymous said ... (December 27, 2006 11:19 AM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (December 27, 2006 1:05 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (December 28, 2006 11:27 AM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (December 28, 2006 12:06 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (December 28, 2006 8:41 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (December 28, 2006 9:08 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (December 29, 2006 12:22 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (December 29, 2006 6:05 PM) :
post a commentHi, Thanks for all the good information you have posted. I am an IPO trader who has just started tracking Cramer with the same idea as you to short it. I was wondering what you mean by your days to cover catagory. Is that how long you shorted the stock? It seems like shorting in after hours and covering at close of next day gives a profit 8 out of 10 times...is that what you have found as well? I am thinking of shorting with a buy stop order in case the stock runs more than I expect.
The days to cover is the number of days based on the current number of shares short (before Cramer picks the stock) based on average volume to reduce the shares short to zero. I give that information because there is change Cramer could invoke a short squeeze on a recommendation that could propel the stock up a lot. So it is there as a potential warning to see if shorting is a bad idea or if the short percentage will have little impact. From what I have seen recently, shorting just after 930 and covering within the first half hour after that has given the best results, as that is normally when the supply and demand evens out and the price pop is over. After the initial surge in price and drop the price after that until the end of day is a bit of a crap shoot if you ask me because that is when the market takes over and could take the stock up or down. I don't like to hold the short longer then I have to for that reason. I have also noticed quite a few times recently that the after hours price is surpassed the next morning, so to get highest possible short price it may be wise to wait till the next day, but that is no guaruntee. The buy stop when shorting Cramers picks is a good idea because there are a lot of cases where the stocks run higher and longer then expected, but I try to weed those ones out (like AKPT the other day I said I didn't want to short and it showed good strength) and avoid those situations as best as possible.
So the smaller the number of days to cover the less chance there is of a prolonged short squeeze right? (or a less intense short squeeze)I have been tracking his picks in afterhours writting the price every minute after he says his picks. It seems like 3-4 minutes after he says the stock it peaks...but you have found that the next morining it goes even higher right? I was thinking of shorting in afterhours but I think you have numbers that prove that the next day (like you said at 9:30) may be better. Thanks for your response.
Yes, the smaller the days to cover, the less likley a prolonged price surge will occur, but that is not the only reason a stock may maintain strength. I have also seen stocks that have a high percentage of institutional and insider holders could propel a stock as well as "momentum" stocks that are close to or creating new 52-week highs. There is certainly no exact science to it all because sometimes the prices goes higher the next day then the after hours and sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes the price after hours will peak early and fall, and sometimes it will keep going up (maybe sometimes because Cramer says better and better things about the stock as the segment goes along).
Since it is impossible to get in at the exact highs and cover in the exact lows I was wondering if you have an idea of what is the average percentage gain on shorting his stocks. I've calculated 3% but I don't know how close that is to real life. I am going to try shorting after the new years when markets get back in thier old grove. I appreciate your charts of your research by sector. How often do you make thoes? Thanks again for all your help. If you have any questions about IPO's I will be happy to help since this is my area of expertise. Here is my blog if you care to visit
http://blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-IAyBTmk0f6Oe0szl1VH9tPZZH3_XbP3nuVKoSlldjw--;_ylt=AjkdBDomzvpQ816YaFGAuuS0AOJ3?cq=1
Hard question to answer. Yes, my numbers show optimal shorting at highs and covering at lows which is not likely but I have no way of really saying what the percentage gains are for shorting the picks. My chart by sector does show some numbers for optimal shorting, but that chart is somewhat old now. I have not done an update to that in some time (it is a bit labor intensive and pasting in charts into blogger was a pain in the arse last time). What I have found is that stocks above $30-40 don't typically see as big of a price run up and are therefore not worth shorting in my books because they require a larger drop in price, and it takes more money to hold the short position for fewer shares. I would say 3% would be a good realistic average as you have calculated but not something you can take to the bank because some picks/sectors get different reactions. I like to set short sells near round numbers like $9.97 if the after hours price is hovering around $9.80 in the likelyhood that the stock will go close to $10 but not cross that price point (psychological price barrier...often times prices will hit a price like that and drop...possibly program sells kicking in as well). Then I would set a cover price maybe 10 to 20 cents lower (or more the higher the stock price because the higher the price, the less shares I can afford to short, so I need a money drop even though the percentages stay the same). One more thing to consider...partial fills. Make sure you do an all or nothing short, otherwise you might get stuck with a fraction of the shares you wanted to short and it may make you try to wait for the stock to drop more to make up for it and get stuck if it runs up. Sorry for the ramblings...hope what I wrote makes sense.
Yes, what you say makes sense. Thanks. I have wondered whether to make price goals (like you mentioned 20 cents or so) or to sell at time goals (like at a time of day when things seem to peak) I will experiment with both and see what works better. Sounds like a price goal has worked best for you right? Well thanks for the info. once again.
Certainly price goals is the route I take. There may be some time goals that could work, but I haven't really looked at the data for that, but I would consider it the riskier of the two strategies because sometimes the peaks and lows can happen in minutes and sometimes in hours, but after the low is hit the stock could drift or shoot back up after the inital effect wears off. I would be curious to know what you discover.