November 14th - IPOs
Cramer's first segment looked at 3 upcoming IPO's this week. Since none of these even trade yet there are no shorting opportunities but I will go over what Cramer thinks of these IPO's.
The first IPO is KBR which is a spinoff from Halliburton Co. (HAL). The IPO price range is $15-17 as people think the new government make-up will be bad news for the company, but Cramer doesn't agree and says this is being priced at a 20% discount to other similar companies. Cramer said he would be a buyer of this IPO, but it is highly over-subscribed so it won't be easy to get in for the actual IPO. He also suggested buying HAL since it will still own a percentage of KBR and is undervalued itself and spinning off KBR could help HAL. HAL is up after hours, but since it trades with oil prices it is not something I am interested in shorting.
The next IPO is the NYMEX (NMX) which is the exchange for energy trading. Again, it is over subscribed and is being priced in a range of $54-57 and added another half million shares to 6.5 million shares total. This is the one Cramer says he wants people to buy. He said other exchanges that have come public have done very well and sees the same thing happening here.
Cramer's final IPO was Hertz (HTZ) and he said this was one to stay away from and is comparing it to the Sealy (ZZ) which performed terribly. Cramer said this one will disappoint because the debt has gone up, dropped net income, and a lot of the IPO funds will go towards paying off a loan which was taken out to pay a special dividend.
posted by CramerTracker @ 11/14/2006
14 comments
Comments on "November 14th - IPOs"
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CramerTracker said ... (November 14, 2006 7:55 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (November 15, 2006 4:10 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (November 15, 2006 4:34 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (November 15, 2006 7:13 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (November 15, 2006 8:01 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (November 16, 2006 8:34 AM) :
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Anonymous said ... (November 16, 2006 10:55 AM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (November 16, 2006 12:02 PM) :
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Anonymous said ... (November 17, 2006 7:29 PM) :
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CramerTracker said ... (November 18, 2006 10:28 AM) :
post a commentYou can read up about the nymex at wikipeida here if you like: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nymex
It is basically a place where energy products are exchanged much like the New York Stock Exchange where stocks are traded between buyers and sellers...so basically the middle man. I'm certainly no expert on the topic though.
An IPO being over subscribed means that there are too many people that want in on the ground floor of the IPO. When shares are first given out for a newly traded company they aren't just open to the general public, they are sold directly to people/funds who have subscribed. Being over subsribed means that there arne't enough shares to go around. Most retail investors don't have access to the IPO at the range price they are set at and are forced to buy in the open market once the shares get sold as people look to cash in right away.
Cramer is probably going to pump APKT tonight on Mad Money. He said that he was going to have it on this week's show. Notice how he did not have APKT on the afterword log. I can only conclude that he will pump it tonight or in the next few days.
Totally agreed. I did notice that too on thestreet.com. Unfortunately the stock is up almost 10% today, so I wonder if he will hold off till tomorrow or Friday to spotlight it or risk it going up 20% in a day. If he even mentions (again) that it is in the same breed as DIVX or RVBD (which are both up over $10 since he mentioned them then it certainly would make for a good case to go long the stock and avoid shorting it.
I have confidence that he will mention it. Nowhere on thestreet.com is there any mention of Acme Packet. He might have saw how it was bid up today and waiting until Thurs or Friday to feature it.
My question to you is this. Has he ever said that he will feature the stock and then not feature it? Has there ever been a time where he said he was going to feature the stock during the lightning round?
I was looking at the level IIs and right after the show someone canceled out their buy/sell orders. Right when the show ended someone canceled out the orders they had on Acme Packet.
He is normally pretty good at following up on his promises. I don't doubt he will have a segment on the stock but will it be positive? The company did just cut guidance and the stock has gone down. He may have decided not to focus on it tonight because of the big run up in it today or possibly because he didn't want to miss the boat on energy trust funds that were up very strong today after weeks of falling. Might be worth getting a few shares on any weakness tomorrow if people give up....but I think it will be unlikely....I'm sure lots of people bought today and will hold until Cramer mentions it again.
Ill be honest. I bought into it yesterday and Im hoping that Cramer wasnt telling a lie here. I guess it was dumb to do it, but I honestly thought he would mention it and send it sailing. Im hoping that he will mention it tonight or Friday. If I can get a good price today, then Ill bail.
I'm sure you aren't alone in buying in the hopes that Cramer will do a segment on it. And unless people have very short memories I don't see it loosing all its gains from yesterday because I'm sure the main reason it was up was Cramer. I would say though if he doesn't mention it by Friday night before the lightening round then people who bought might start dumping after hours. Hopefully you can get out if it turns sour, but maybe you can protect yourself with some protective puts options? I noticed the call options are a bit pricey after yesterday with a gap between bid and ask.
Think about it. This stock would shoot up 2-3 dollars and hold their for days/weeks if he mentioned it. There has to be a reason why its not on thestreet.com. He did mention it on tuesday, buts no where in the records on thestreet.com.
Has there ever been a time where there was a mention of the stock in the lightning round and it wasnt posted on thestreet madmoney performance page?
I figured it out. The options expiration is tommorrow and there are far too many puts on this thing. When the options expire, the put buyers will have to buy into the open market to cover the short.
Stock will run big and if Cramer bumps it tonight, it will really run. Cramer is saving it for tonight for a nice nuclear effect tommorrow.
It is indeed very odd and a telling sign that the stock was not mentioned on the recap. I see him mentioning the stock one way or the other in the near future and of course it would be the biggest pop if he did it in a segment and not just mentioning it before the lightening round for a few seconds like has down for a few stocks recently. The only possible problem I see is if he hadn't looked at their latest earnings report before he made the comment the other night and has since done so and not liked what he saw. Even so, I think he will mention the stock, but it might not produce the results people are looking for. I'll be honest though, the thought of buying a call option has crossed my mind, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
I'm not a put buyer myself, but I was under the impression that if you bought a put, and the stock goes up, the option would just expire worthless, or loose value if time remained. There is no need to buy shares to cover a put option if the price goes up. The only thing that would cause short covering is straight up short sellers having to cover.
Just wanted to followup. I unloaded everything when Acme Packet blipped up over 16 and realized a $4000 profit 2 days ago. I didnt want to chance it that Cramer would say nothing this week. Apparently, he didnt keep his word and said nothing. Im not sure what will happen to Acme Packet, but I made out with my cash and a small profit.
Well congrats on the profit. Cramer certainly didn't come through on his word there, but you still got a couple dollar move on the stock (depending when you bought) and I think it held up better then most of his actual picks because people were holding longer with the anticipation that he would recommend it, and people that didn't hear him say that would pile in.