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Tuesday, July 11, 2006

July 11th - WAG

Cramer's first segment looked at how earnings are not always what is important for stocks. He used WAG Walgreen Co. as an example where the company reported some good numbers and fell, and didn't start to go back up again until the Federal Reserve continued to tighten with the interest rates. WAG then reported again recently and again reported good numbers and went up, even though they said the same things they said the first time the reported and went down. Since we were in a different part of the business cycle, that explains the difference in the reaction to the earnings reports. Cramer did say he expects WAG to continue to go up because of the economic slow down so he did give it a buy recommendation.

Closing Price: $46.80
After Hours High: $47.04
Percent Increase at High: 0.5%
Price Level Off Point: $46.95
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 0.3%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Services
Short %: 1.2%
Days to Cover: 2.7

Very small price increase and an expensive stock, not to mention being just to big a stock for Cramer to influence too much.

In Cramer's second segment he mentioned FCX Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. as a company that will report well, but not to buy because the market will not react favorably to it...so he gave it he bear button.

The stock traded down after hours to lows of $56.20 after closing today at $56.89. After that drop though, someone did bid it up over $57.00, but it has since fallen. I assume they weren't listening to what Cramer said and just had their finger on the buy trigger. It has been mentioned a few times why I don't make note to short a sell pick from Cramer. As I have replied in the past, I don't want to short sell picks because it is not the same game. I don't feel the same edge is created like when shorting his buy recommendations. In theory it makes more sense to go long his sell picks for a day trade since people will sell in a panic and the stock will probably gain some back. Now I don't really recommend that since I have only seen a few examples, but shorting is not a great option either. Chances are you will chase the short down only for it to bottom and climb back up.

Finally, Cramer spoke of AAPL Apple Computer Inc. and to be careful about it because it is a "defenseless" stock. Although it has some great product outlook, and plenty of cash, it is not great because it has no dividend, no stock buybacks, and no guidance. Much like FCX above, since this is more of a "stay away"/sell on increases pick I don't think shorting is a good idea here.

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