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Tuesday, July 25, 2006

July 25th - CSX WWY NTRI

Cramer first looked at CSX CSX Corp. as a buy and WWY William Wrigley Jr. Co. as a sell in a look at secular vs cyclical stocks.

CSX is viewed as cyclical and WWY is viewed as secular and Cramer says this is wrong. Cramer says CSX is a secular growth story and WWY is a no-growth story. From a shorting perspective CSX is too expensive closing at $62.81 with a trade to $63.48 after hours. WWY, the sell pick closed at $45.47 and was up over $2 today. As I repeat every time Cramer makes a sell pick, I don't short them as these picks often times go up, and don't really get the same sort of attention as his buy picks. For a sell recommendation to really be effected by Cramer, a lot of the people that watch Mad Money would have to own the stock and decide to sell it ASAP. Yes, some people might read the news update on the Yahoo finance page from Cramer and decide to sell as well, but I don't see people rushing to sell like they do to buy his recommendations (although not so much recently). WWY may very well come down tomorrow as people cash in on their profits from today so it is hard to really determine why a sell pick moves the way it does the next day because it could be one of many factors, and not just Cramer. I also don't have confidence (yet) in the theory to always do the opposite to what Cramer says and buy his sell picks.

Cramer looked at NTRI NutriSystem Inc. after it reported what looked like fantastic numbers last night, but the stock got hammered. The stock is down almost 20% from last night. Cramer says this is still a sell because it was and is such a loved stock by analysts...but hated by investors which can be seen by a large short % already in the stock (28% according to shortsqueeze.com). And if a stock reports such great numbers and goes down, the stock will no longer go up. Of course I am not going to short both a sell pick and a stock that is already down 20% in one day, and buying certainly isn't that appealing of an idea either.

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