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Monday, July 24, 2006

July 24th - AVP DPZ SGP

Cramer's first pick tonight was AVP Avon Products Inc.

Closing Price: $32.58
After Hours High: $33.20
Percent Increase at High: 1.9%
Price Level Off Point: $32.83
Percent Increase at Off Point: 0.8%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Consumer Goods
Short %: 1.8%
Days to Cover: 3.4
% Held By Insiders: 0.18%
% Held By Institutions: 85.8%

Not really a glowing recommendation and more of an example pick as Cramer mentioned, as a turnaround play. He still said it will work, but is risky. That really didn't help the after hours action on this pick since I don't think too many people were that excited by it. With only a few trades after hours this will most likely come down to what the overall market does tomorrow. The stock was up 86-cents or 2.7% on close to average volume. Large institutional holdings in this stock too though, which is always somewhat concerning. If the big boys are holding it, obviously it is in their best interest to keep the price going up, and we are nearing the 52-week high.

Cramer next spoke of his interview/recommendation of DPZ Dominos Pizza Inc. Although the stock is down over 16% since then, he is recommending to buy it again!

Closing Price: $22.50
After Hours High: $22.98
Percent Increase at High: 2.1%
Price Level Off Point: $22.95
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 2.0%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Services
Short %: 4.8%
Days to Cover: 4.6

Another new strategy from Cramer? In a tough market that is hard to make stock picks, pick a stock that has failed for you before so it doesn't look as bad if it keeps going down? A light volume, slow price increase after hours so far. The stock is only a few cents below the nice even $23 value. Normally I like to watch out for these whole price numbers and use them as a gauge of how high the stock might go. The dilemma here is that we are very close to $23 and it doesn't seem to want to break it after hours here, but if it doesn't we really don't have much of a price increase to bother shorting. So without a spike over $23.00 tomorrow then the opportunity isn't very exciting. But on the other hand, if it does break $23, how high might it go? The stock is down pretty hard from the $24 level in the last few days of trading. The stock is also capable of trading up over a dollar in a day as it has done so recently. Another bet on how the overall market will do tomorrow I think, and I don't have the answer to that.

Finally Cramer looked at sector rotation and how to spot the next move. In doing so he looked at how currently the Drug stocks benefiting from a current rotation. He mentioned SGP Schering-Plough Corp. as a stock that is up a lot and should continue to rise. Again, more of an educational segment vs. a stock picking segment, which Cramer even mentioned was the way the show was going. This really seems to put a cap on the after hours price (and I wonder if it puts a cap on his audience??). Currently there has only been 1 trade since Cramer mentioned the stock and the price is below the high for the day which gives an ANGO no-short rule which is just as well since the stock was up over 5% today on 4x the normal volume.

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