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Thursday, July 13, 2006

July 13th - SBCF HCBK CPK BDN RA

Another look at defensive stocks tonight. These are stocks who have dividends (dividend yields go up as stock price goes down remember!), stock buy backs or may be take over targets or companies in sectors with M&A activity. The 3 sectors Cramer looked at were Utilities, Real Estate Trusts, and Regional Banks. The Bank stocks in particular were:

SBCF Seacoast Banking Corp. of Florida
Closing Price: $26.61
After Hours Price (only trade): $27.37
Percent Increase: 2.9%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Financial
Short %: 3.9%
Days to Cover: 11.7
Average Volume: 43,065
% Held by Insiders: 13%
% Held by Institutions: 45.7%

Low volume, large number of days for short coverage, almost 60% of shares held by insiders and institutions, and only 1 trade after hours. The high for today was $27.35 so we are very close to an ANGO no short rule, but with no volume right now it really doesn't matter. A lot of signs here point to not shorting, but the fact that no one is buying and we are in a bear market it's really a crap shoot. Also, Cramer said he prefers HCBK.

HCBK Hudson City Bancorp Inc.
Closing Price: $13.16
After Hours High: $13.59
Percent Increase at High: 3.3%
Price Level Off Point: $13.47
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 2.4%
Trades on NASDAQ
Sector: Financial
Short %: 3.1%
Days to Cover: 4.7
Average Volume: 2,723,010
% Held by Insiders: 16.8%
% Held by Institutions: 54.6%

Much more volume here, most likely due to the price and it being the favored pick of the two banks Cramer mentioned. Much like SBCF we have large insider and institutional holdings (71.4%) so this takes away from the float if they are going to hold. This stock trades in a VERY tight range and hasn't closed outside of $13 since February when it closed at $12.84. The stock has also briefly touched $14 but did not hold. I think it is very unlikely this will hold these gains from tonight, even though they are minimal. If this even comes near $14 tomorrow morning it would present a great opportunity for a short in my opinion. Any spike at 9:30am on large volume should be worth a look.

Cramer's utility pick was CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corp.

CPK only trades at an average volume of 8,000 shares a day on the NYSE. It closed today at $31.65. No trades after hours to speak of. If by some chance this gets any action tomorrow who knows what it might do with such low average volume. People may be very excited to sell on any spike. My guess is that there won't be much buying to worry about.

Cramer also mentioned BKH Black Hills Corp. IDA IdaCorp, Inc. and CNL Cleco Corp. for the utilities sector. CNL is the only one that had a trade after hours but for only a slight increase of just under 1% on 100 shares. These all have higher average volume than CPK, but obviously didn't evoked much buying, and will probably be the case tomorrow as well.

Cramer's Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) picks were RA Reckson Associates Realty Corp. and BDN Brandywine Realty Trust

BDN actually had some trades below the close! The stock closed at $31.11 and had 500 shares trade after hours at $30.80. Somewhat surprising since the stock/trust trades over 600,000 shares daily on average. Not sure who would have a sell order at $30.80 sitting there. Maybe the seller put in a market sell and there was a buyer at $30.80, or maybe they meant to sell at $31.80? The stock has since traded above today's close reaching a high of $31.68. RA has 1 trade after hours up from a close of $41.03 to $41.60 on 100 shares.

BDN
Closing Price: $31.11
After Hours High: $31.68
Percent Increase at High: 1.8%
Price Level Off Point: $31.50
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 1.3%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Financial - REIT
Short %: 7.5%
Days to Cover: 10.1
Average Volume: 661,127

The high for the day for BDN was $31.71 and we are below that now after hours, so this would be an ANGO no-short rule. Looks like HCBK is the best bet for tomorrow.

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