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Friday, November 03, 2006

November 3rd - Cheap Trick

Cramer's first segment spoke of "unlearning" what you know about money. He was referring to the fact that people like stocks under $10 because they are "cheap" which isn't always true, and that its the p/e ratio that matters when valuing a stock. He said even though cheap stocks have less room to fall, you can still loose 100% of your investment. He compared Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR) and Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) and although CHTR trades in the $2 range and CMCSA trades at $40, that CMCSA is actually cheaper because it has earnings and CHTR does not. Not to mention CMCSA is just a stronger company. These aren't picks from Cramer and more of an educational segment so no plays here.

Cramer continued his theme of stocks he wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole even though they are under $10 and look cheap. The next one to stay away from was Gateway Inc. (GTW)
and said it was more expensive than Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) even though they trade at $1.64 and $38.22 respectively when comparing forward looking p/e ratios (since GTW has no current earnings but analysts expect future earnings). Again, nothing to short here on this educational type show. Hopefully this education won't stop people for irrationally bidding up future picks!

Comments on "November 3rd - Cheap Trick"

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (November 05, 2006 10:49 PM) : 

Shouldnt you include the 50/200 week moving average with each stock? Go to www.stockcharts.com. Make sure you pick the weekly chart (not daily). Most fund managers look at the 50/200 week (not day) moving average. You will notice that the share price tends to revolve around those price points. For example, WTS is way above the 50 week MA so it will float back down a point or two in short time.

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (November 06, 2006 8:20 AM) : 

Thanks for the comment and idea. Something I should be able to incorporate easily enough. Have you noticed the prices the next morning being effected by the moving averages (support/ressistance) within the first few hours of trading?

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (November 06, 2006 8:37 AM) : 

ESLR up on cramer as well this morning; in AH, hit high 830s; now at 8.57...

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (November 06, 2006 9:10 AM) : 

Is that the one the CEO came on the show for or just a gameplan segment. I haven't been following those segments since they are normally larger stocks that he mentions for trading around earnings reports or news. That one will be very election driven as well so I would be cautious.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (November 06, 2006 12:33 PM) : 

sorry, i didn't see the program; just saw briefing's mention of it being up this morning b/c of cramer mention to 'buy on monday, sell on wednesday'.

from the volume, looks like some people are pressing the sell button a littler earlier than jimbo would like...

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (November 06, 2006 1:11 PM) : 

It has held up pretty well on the day. Probably a good idea to take profits and not risk the election news bringing it down. I have also been watching CSCO which he also mentioned and it has risen steadily.

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (November 06, 2006 4:55 PM) : 

I took a look at www.stockcharts.com and only have a limited knowledge of TA, but when I change the chart to weekly, for the particular stock I am looking at (GW) it says the 200 SMA is $5.59, when the price of GW has not been anywhere near that price, but when I view the daily the moving averages (50 and 200) reflect those of other sites such as Yahoo! and MSN when I view those charts. Just wondering why the weekly is so low, and why there would even be a difference between a daily and weekly moving average. I assume the weekly just looks at less data?

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (November 06, 2006 7:09 PM) : 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GW&p=W&b=1&g=0&id=p54645603782

This chart will make the most sense. When a stock is healthy, it will follow up above the blue line (50 week moving average). When the stock falls below the blue line, its a signal to a problem. From there, the stock may fall to the red line unless the company does something special to stop it. You will notice that when a stock price falls under the blue line sometimes the CEO will come out with a special news release, etc. If it falls to the red line, then there is a big problem. If it falls below the red line or the red/blue lines are inverted, it means we are in big trouble and its not a healthy company.

For GW, we can see that its having a few small problems as its been meandering back and forth above/below the blue line.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (November 06, 2006 7:10 PM) : 

Also notice when the blue and red lines crossed. This is sometimes a very bullish signal to buy. Not always though, like in the case of six flags.

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (November 06, 2006 8:38 PM) : 

Thanks for the info on moving averages. Do you know why the moving avearge would be far below the 52-week low price for a stock though (according to the website you provided)? It is my understanding that the moving average takes the average cost of the number of days of the moving average. Therefore the moving average couldn't be below the 52 week low price could it?

 

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