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Friday, May 12, 2006

May 12th - PTR RTK BUH

Cramer's first pick was PTR PetroChina Co. Ltd. This one trades at $116 so is far to rich for me to really get into any analysis on here. Not to mention that I don't think its a very good idea shorting oil even if this company is ignored here as Cramer mentioned.

Cramer's second pick was RTK Rentech, Inc.

Closing Price: $4.20
After Hours High: $5.05
Percent Increase at High: 20.2%
Price Level Off Point: $4.75
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 13.1%
Trades on AMEX
Sector: Conglomerates
Short %: 3.4%
Days to cover: 3.8

Well Cramer played with some people's heads by mentioning SSL first. RTK is currently trading below just below $5 so it is out of my range for shorting due to broker restrictions, not to mention that it trades on the AMEX. Cramer has also just mentioned that there will be trouble if people take this up after hours, so after a 20% increase I think he was too late. It is also fun to hear him talking about bidding up stocks too much after hours because they always come down instantly. He also said something very interesting. He said he has studied his picks and said that they are best to buy 1.5 days after he mentions them, so in this case Tuesday between 10:30 and 12. Anyway, this is another new sector for my data so nothing to compare with in that way. The current short numbers aren't as bad as TGI today, so I don't think one would have to worry about that too much. These cheap ones don't have to come down a lot to make decent gains. With a weak market right now, I would be surprised if this goes over $5 next Monday, so a short near $5 could do well, but watch out for any 9:30 - 10am spikes.

Cramer's third pick was BUH Buhrmann NV

Closing Price: $16.40
After Hours High: $17.45
Percent Increase: 6.3%
After Hours Level Off Point: $17.19
Percent Increase at Level Off Point: 4.6%
Trades on NYSE
Sector: Services

This trades at a VERY LOW volume of 10,000 shares! Once again this came down fast after Cramer warned people not to bid it up due to the low volume, but has since climbed a bit. This was also down over $1 today, but with the bad overall market that doesn't necessarily reflect the company. My short information site doesn't have data for this stock so no comparisons there. The services sector isn't a great sector for shorting, but stocks with a similar price point such as CATG and TXRH came down from their peaks 5.8% and 3.8% respectively (unfortunately I don't have the times of the peak though). Since this is a takeover play one should keep their eyes on the news. This one will probably drop right from the pre-market with little spike at the open I would figure since it really isn't as interesting as Cramer's cheaper RTK pick. This should come back down below $17 on Monday.

Comments on "May 12th - PTR RTK BUH"

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (May 15, 2006 11:03 AM) : 

I've read some articles in the mainstream media about Jim Cramer and his ability to affect markets in after hours trading and at next day's market open.

I pretty much figured that it would be impossible to buy long and quickly sell for a pofit, so I figure that a short sell strategy would be the only possibilty. I did some searching on Google and found your blog.

Your posts are very informative, and I'll continue to read them. Thanks for doing them!

I do have an observation I'm not sure if you have considered before. I have Dish network at home. I've had times in the past where I've been watching a hockey game while talking on the phone to a friend. His Comcast cable was running about 20 seconds ahead of my Dish network for the same network. So, I'm guessing that different cable and satellite providers are on slightly different times. Have you done any investigation into how fast your CNBC feed is and if there is a way to get a faster feed?

I do have one kinda stupid question though: Cramer obviously had his show aired after the market close. Does he tape it or is it live? If he tapes it, how can he possibly keep his picks a secret before market close? I'm guessing the camera men would be millionaires by now. Additionally, the staff must have to prepare the graphics and the copy (unless he totally wings it). How would they keep that a secret?

Thanks again for the blog,
Kevin

 

Blogger CramerTracker said ... (May 15, 2006 5:00 PM) : 

Thanks for the comments!

As for your question about air time and delays in air time, I have never really thought of that. I am in the eastern time zone and watch him at 6pm and can see his picks move the second they come on air here. I have a digital cable package and use a high def DVR with no issue.

As for his show. From what I understand he tapes it live from 5:30 till 6:30 (or 4:30 to 5:30). People who call in are allowed to listen to the show until their time comes in the lightening round or segment parts but are told not to trade on anything he mentions. This strategy seems pretty effective since I have hardly ever seen any trades in the after hours before he mentions a stock. I have seen however people knowing what stocks will be talked about on his show that night because he sets up his segment peices with pre-set callers who have emailed him questions recently about stocks he is focusing on. I have read on Yahoo message boards people saying they will be on air that night, and sure enough they are. But for this you must be on the right board at the right time I guess. All in all, I'm sure he has to be very careful about his picks not getting out before the show or else risk getting in trouble with the SEC or getting shut down.

 

Anonymous Anonymous said ... (May 17, 2006 8:23 AM) : 

Looks nice! Awesome content. Good job guys.
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